Bank of Finance Research Center: Next year banking earnings growth is expected to 20%

On the afternoon of November 7, the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center 7th in Beijing issued the "2009-2010 Bank of China Development newspaper," the report predicts 2009 commercial banks can achieve more than 5% of the profit growth, next year is expected to reach 20%.　　For monetary policy, the bank's research team believes that the current spreads are appropriate, there is no need to raise interest rates, monetary policy should remain forward-looking, to fine-tune the main. Compared with a 2009-year loan growth rate of more than 30% per cent, the report argues that commercial bank lending grew by 89 trillion in the late 2010, about 20% to 22%. Currency-driven interest-rate assets will boost net profit growth by 32%, still the main factor driving earnings growth. Among them, mortgage loan as the main body of long-term loan growth is expected to reach 20%, more than 1 trillion yuan.　　The capital adequacy ratio will not become the main restricting factor of the credit growth of commercial banks. The bank's research team believes the net spreads for commercial banks next year are expected to continue to rebound slightly after the 2-quarter dip, but it is difficult to achieve a significant increase, with a pull margin of about 11% per cent for net profit growth.　　At present, benefiting from the rise in asset prices, commercial bank intermediary business increased, the report said 2010 commercial Bank intermediary business income growth is expected to reach 25%.　　The ratio of non-performing assets will fall. There is no need to worry about the increase in non-performing assets caused by the size of the overspeed loan, and Lianping, chief economist at the bank, said it was "unnecessary". In 2010, he said, the total amount of non-performing assets in the banking industry would be basically stable, and the ratio would continue to decline slightly due to the expansion of loan size. He said non-performing assets and GDP growth were negatively correlated. "The overall economic situation will continue to stabilize, so non-performing assets will not be greatly enhanced." Unless there is a major economic setback, it is difficult to have the possibility of a non-performing asset rate of more than 5%. "The acceleration of house prices or the tightening up of credit, or the continuation or suspension of preferential policies on mortgages, has become the focus of attention." It has been reported that Shanghai Merchants Bank has abolished the 70 percent interest rate preferential policy. Lianping, chief economist at the bank, told reporters that the current monetary policy is biased towards the development of the real estate industry. But if house prices continue to accelerate next year, policy tightening is inevitable. "There is no tightening now because it is not there yet".　　Aloft, deputy senior manager of the Development Research Department of Bank of Communications, said the current process of rapid adjustment will not occur and needs to be observed for some time.　　The city firm will not rise. The report notes that, in 2009, the banking sector expanded faster in 2009, affected by rapid loan growth.　　By the end of September 2009, the total assets of various banks had increased by 27% over a year earlier, 75.3 trillion yuan.　　Judging from the market share of total assets, the market share of different state-owned banks has increased with the last few years, the total assets of state-owned banks accounted for 56.1% of the total assets of all kinds of banks as at the end of June 2009, 1.2% higher than last year. But the September letterThe loan data changed. September 2009, major commercial banks increased the proportion of new loans fell to 24.4%, 4 large banks and 13 joint-stock banks of the new loans only 125.9 billion yuan, the city firm, etc. acted as the main force in September lending. Will the next few months continue to be such a trend?　　Xu Wenbing, a bank of the Development Research department, said in an interview with Sina Finance that the city firm would not rise, and that state-owned banks and joint-stock banks would still occupy the main position. "The second half of the year began to regulate the development of state-owned banks and joint-stock bank credit growth too fast, strengthening the window guidance." And in its overall size under the circumstances of a certain control, the city firm will have a big alternative role. But overall look at the market structure of state-owned banks and joint-stock banks have absolute status, City firms will not be a sudden rise. (Ding from Beijing)