Bank shares solo 28 law about "3,000 points" suspense

The Carnival of bank shares continues.　　June 18, the great wisdom of the banking sector continued to deduce the trend of attack, the day Rose 2.51%, of which the construction Bank (601939.SH) recorded 5.2% of the increase in its led the market to 1.56% of the increase in the report closed at 2853.9 points. Banking stocks to play the market has been up the backbone of the market since the end of April has started, but also like coal and oil and other plates should be, but with the evolution of the market, especially since the beginning of June, has gradually become a banking unit of the solo, "28" phenomenon has been exposed,　　The bank stock market continues to make the Shanghai Composite index seem closer to the 3,000-point era. A survey of bank stocks by a number of investment banks found that the explanation of the reasons for the strength of bank stocks in two points, one is the valuation of the depression effect, the economic recovery is expected.　　However, with the gradual rise in share prices, the share market, the only valuation of the depression will be filled, and the economic recovery is not expected to translate into the reality of economic recovery, the current movement of banking stocks may be a a-share of the end of the carnival.　　To fill the valuation of the low-lying bank stocks began at the end of April this year, from April 28 to May 13, the Big Wisdom Bank index from 3817.76 to 4488.21 points, up 17.56%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2405.35 to 2663.77, or 10.74%.　　After a brief break in mid-May, bank shares started two times, closing from May 25 to June 18, with the Big Wisdom Bank index recording a 22.76% gain, while the Shanghai Composite was slightly sluggish, or just 8.39%. As a share of the weight of nearly 40% of the banking stocks, its start to make a-share market entered a new stage.　　Hu Chintao, a strategic group strategist at the CIC Securities Research Institute, told reporters that with banking stocks starting at the end of April in early May, the subject of market speculation had been transformed from "valuation repair" to "recovery expectations".　　Hu Chintao explained that in the first quarter to the beginning of April, the market was at the stage of valuation repair, with liquidity releases, policy stimuli and absolute valuations being deepened, but valuations had largely been repaired by 2,600, so the 5 June theme was recovery expectations, driven by two points: growth engines and valuation depressions.　　And banking stocks are the two things: on the one hand, the bank's reflection on the whole macro-economy will be more direct, banking stocks can be said to be the epitome of the whole economic; On the other hand, the bank shares become the lowest valuation plate, in April the overall PE remained around 12 times times, the broader blue chip is lower. The speculation on banking stocks has therefore undergone a process of transformation: Since the beginning of the year, the rise of bank stocks, Pudong, Societe Generale, deep development, such as joint-stock banks, the city firm second, and the four main lines rose the least. In 5, at the end of June, joint-stock banks led the lead, leading the blue-chip industrial and Commercial Bank (601398. SH), Construction Bank (601939.SH), Bank of China (601988..SH) to dance.　　Li Diewu Securities Financial industry analyst, said that the strong banking stocks can be said to be the result of speculation, it is really hard to find something to fry, and the bank still has income, in spite of the decline, but the decline is small, nature has become a hot spot of speculation.　　So, after experiencing such a large fry, does the depression effect of bank stocks still exist?　　Guotai published on 18th, said the report, if 2009 all listed company performance of 12% growth, a-share dynamic PE for 25.32 times times, 2009 Bank pe/Market pe=0.557, far lower than the United States 0.65, Hong Kong 1.0 and a A-share history of the average ratio of 0.88.　　The revival of the economy however, in the two main drivers of the rise in bank stocks, the expectation of economic recovery and the improvement of bank profitability is a more sustainable factor, and whether it can turn into reality is the key to whether the bank stock market can be continued.　　Tangya, analyst at Northeastern Securities, said that with the widening of the valuation gap, it was important to focus on the space and speed at which profitability rose in the economic recovery cycle, which still had to be focused on fundamentals.　　Hu Chintao to reporters that the banking sector is still a certain degree of prosperity, the spread of stability, in the past quarter after a large-scale lending, non-performing loans in the year is still not seen, so the corresponding market will also change and deduction. Tangya that the listed banks in 2008 quarterly earnings growth Quarter-on-quarter trend is obvious, the first quarter of 2009 bank performance is still maintained a decline, but the chain has begun to grow.　　However, she says there is some uncertainty about when profitability can turn upside down from a year-round perspective. Zhu Yu, an analyst with Citic Securities, expressed optimism about the bank's future performance, the reason is that Prophase capital construction investment starts to drive supporting enterprise's investment demand to restore, the bank to insure the income growth to adjust the assets and liabilities structure actively, the credit structure will be further optimized; and with the completion of the asset-liability pricing and the stabilization of the capital market yield,　　NET spreads will be bottoming out in the 2 and 3 quarters, with ample liquidity boosting asset prices and rising bank collateral value, boosting bank credit expansion and profit growth.　　While the future of banking stocks will depend on fundamental changes, the basis for their decisions may not depend entirely on the fundamentals of the institutions represented by the Fund, which hold a group to keep warm in the bank stocks.　　A broker said that, during the IPO restart, as the backbone of the investment institutions, the fund did not choose a large scale to reduce, are in the warehouse, so the performance is from the subject-matter unit gradually to have a high security margin of the blue chip, especially the bank shares move. However, the Bohai Securities on June 16 issued a statistical report on the flow of funds, the financial services industry index rose but the net outflow of funds, the only one 5th cumulative net inflow and 5th price deviation of the industry.