Big data reveals American consumption patterns

The FT's May 21 article, "Big Data on American consumption patterns," said that micro-information about the cycle of pay and benefits in various parts of the United States suggests that the vulnerable groups in the shadows are the least optimistic in the midst of the economic travails that are hampering the current US "recovery". The main content is compiled as follows:

A few weeks ago, when I was chatting with an executive at one of the largest food and beverage companies in the United States, his views on data flow were instructive to me.

Like most consumer groups, the company is investing heavily in monitoring consumer behaviour with large data technologies.

The company is not only looking at what customers buy and what they don't buy. More recently, the company has looked more closely at micro-information such as the payroll and benefit-payment cycles in various parts of the country.

Why did you do that? Before 2007, consumers in most American cities had a fairly stable consumption of food and beverages in one months, the executive said.

But since 2007, consumption patterns have become extremely irregular. The barely-living consumer seems to be getting more and more, and only when wages, food stamps or benefits are in hand, do they buy things. Moreover, this change has occurred not only in the poorest regions, but also in the middle-class regions. Therefore, it is necessary to study the distribution cycle of wages and benefits in various regions.

"We see a marked difference between people's shopping habits and the recession," the executive explained. Consumers tight according to each wage. In addition, 50 million people live on food stamps, and food stamps have a release cycle. ”

"So it is very important for our company to have the cycle of payment (and benefits)." ”

Unfortunately, outsiders (or journalists) seem unlikely to have access to the data in the economy as a whole. Big companies are tight-lipped about their big data projects (the manufacturer of a wide variety of hot cakes in the U.S. doesn't let me disclose the name of the company). At the same time, while economists monitor the macro trends in retail consumption, they usually do not analyze micro-consumption fluctuations.

However, this is not the only company. For example, Walmart executives recently pointed out that the "wage-payment cycle" has become increasingly influential, and Kroger, another retail firm, said the proportion of customers using food stamps had increased by one-fold, meaning more change in consumption patterns. And as these messages grow, there are at least two reasons why they deserve attention. The first and most obvious reason is that these messages should alert us to the existence of vulnerable groups in the midst of the economic throes of the current US "recovery" that are not sound or in shadow. Most notably, the high unemployment rate in recent years and the shrinking of real and household wealth seem to have seriously exacerbated the economic constraints of the poor in the American society. (for example, a recent survey shows that the wealth of Hispanic and black households shrank by 44% and 31% between 2007 and 2010 respectively.) ）

Economic constraints are as difficult to assess as the change in micro-consumption habits, because economists generally do not track the problem. However, it is now presumed that one-seventh of Americans (about 50 million) live below the poverty line and that the same proportion of people live in "food insecure" households. At the same time, 6 million people use the food bank, 47 million people rely on food stamps. In addition, the Brookings Institution (Brookings Centric), a few years ago, had tried to study economic constraints, analysing how many families could come up with 2000 dollars at once. At the time, the conclusion was that one-fourth of households did not have emergency funds available at any time. "Now, despite the more severe financial constraints on low-income families, a large proportion of Americans who seem to belong to the middle class are not optimistic." ”

I think the second reason for this trend to be noteworthy, if not unfortunate, is that it reveals our attitude towards time. For most of the last century, a sign of modern "progress" seems to be that the time span of our planning for the whole of society has been stretched. Before entering modern society, the farmer or shepherd can neither measure the passage of time nor accurately calculate the risk of the future. After entering the 20th century, people seem to have great control over the environment so that it is possible (and beneficial) to see the problem in the long run. People no longer rush to act in a stressful way, but learn to plan ahead and manage time. Instead of busy looking for food every day, people can proactively plan ahead and go to the supermarket every once in a while, a powerful symbol of the changing human society and cognition in a more macroscopic sense.

But, as the experience of the past five years has shown, history does not follow a straight line or a uniform pace. If you let rich Americans predict the future, they may describe the future as a carefully calibrated path they expect to embark on. But if you let the poor Americans who depend on their wages to predict the future, they are more likely to think of the future as countless chaotic short cycles. In other words, economic polarization leads to different cognitive maps, which, of course, bring about subtle changes in consumption patterns. Big data experts at consumer companies now want to track these changes.

It is hoped that in the not too distant future, historians, sociologists and psychologists will be able to access large data repositories. This treasure trove may reveal a lot of information, but it may also show the bitterness of the human side.

(Responsible editor: The good of the Legacy)