Changyu a plans to double production in the next 5 years

Zhang Yu yesterday closed at 72.47 Yuan, Guotai to 90 yuan. Liu Drawing May 12, we participated in the shareholder meeting of Changyu A and exchanged with its management.　　Zhang Yu Management detailed introduction of the company's future 5 years of development planning, and on a number of details of the analysis. Through communication and understanding, we believe that Zhang Yu product strategy clear, product grade is distinct, is to share the Chinese wine industry rapid growth opportunities of the best target. What is most noteworthy is that we understand that Changyu a plans to produce 5 years close to doubling.　　We still maintain Zhang Yu a2010-2012 annual eps is 2.63 yuan, 3.22 yuan and 3.93 yuan forecast, the year-on-year growth of 22.9%, 22.6% and 21.9%, dynamic PE is 27 times times, 22 times times and 18 times times, and maintain a "recommended" rating.　　Zhang Yu yesterday closed at 72.47 Yuan, Rose 2.47%. Product structure to be long abreast of the learned, Zhang Yu next 5 years the direction of the adjustment of the product structure will adhere to two structures: first of all, wine flagship high-end products.　　Divided into several grades, the first grade is hundred years wine cellar, the company will be limited production, is Changyu the most high-end products, the second grade is winery wine, the next 5 years plan to achieve 10,000 tons; the third is Cabernet, 2009 production close to 30,000 tons, the next 5 years plan to do 50,000 tons, then there is ordinary dry red and dry white products. The second is to adhere to the structure of more wine, mainly wine, while actively developing Brando, champagne, health wine and so on. In the case of Bai, Changyu current XO level of the quality of Brando than the head of the brand still has a far distance. But the emphasis on China's mid-range Brando is the opportunity, that is, 10-100 yuan per bottle of wine price. A particular reference to the data is that Changyu sold 400 million, about 10000 tonnes a year in Guangdong. In addition, champagne in Europe accounted for about 15% of the wine, however, the domestic market share is very small.　　Health wine is also an advantage of the development of Changyu. Production scale of 5 years after the output doubled Changyu to expand production scale, 5 years after the total output reached 250,000 tons. At present, the actual sales of Changyu about 130,000 tons, and capacity is 130,000-140,000 tons. In order to expand production, Changyu has bought 1650 acres in the western suburbs of Yantai, to establish Changyu New industrial park, 2010 years will start.　　In addition, other parts of the country, such as Xinjiang to build 2 fermentation plants, 1 wineries, a filling plant, Ningxia to build 1 fermentation plants, 1 wineries, a filling plant, Xi ' an built 1 fermentation plants, 1 wineries, a filling plant; Corresponding to the planned production scale of 250,000 tons, Changyu planned its own raw material base. such as Yantai Grape plantation from 40,000-50,000 mu to 70,000 mu, Ningxia to reach the base of 80,000 mu, Xinjiang to reach 70,000 mu base (Xinjiang vineyard base has 50,000 acres before, 2010 years plan to add 20,000 mu), the plan 2-3 years later.　　A total of 200,000 acres of grape production base. After the production scale is enlarged, the marketing strategy is ZhangAnother important issue to consider. And we also learned that in the sales system construction, Changyu has selected 100 major cities built first, and then copied to the country. Now the standard is the city if there are 300,000 yuan turnover, build sales system.　　In addition, it is worth mentioning that the current Zhang Yu's actual marketing staff has nearly 2400 people, is expected to reach the previous planned nearly 3000 sales force.　　On investment in the financial sector as a whole, Changyu investment in two parts: first, the expansion of production scale used; the second is in the advertising, terminal promotion, and other aspects, some of them used in the brand cultivation, and the other part used in the terminal, such as hotels, catering terminals, ultra and so on. such as 2010, Changyu in the central, local and other media advertising input to do 500 million of the budget, there will be a large number of use in the terminal promotion.　　It is estimated that after June, we can see the advertisement of "Changyu" brand.　　In addition, referring to the 2009 acquisition of Xinjiang Tianyi Wine industry 60% stake, Zhang Yu has not considered the increase in capital. And for the stake in Hengfeng Bank, Changyu has its own investment plan.　　Changyu has already announced the pricing of its stake in HSBC, which is still taking legal proceedings. At present, the Hang Fung Bank listing is still unknown, but from the margin to learn, it learned that Hengfeng Bank is doing listing preparation, and has been a brokerage and they have maintained 2-3 years of contact.　　The next step to Hengfeng Bank investment exit has not been taken into account, but do not rule out later through the transfer of the Agreement and other means of exit. In addition, Zhang Yu Management said that in considering how to improve the return on investment, if there are more suitable investment opportunities, in the case of controllable risk, it can also be considered, but the premise is not to affect the main business.