China's natural gas is facing growing difficulties this winter may be another gas shortage

Following a hearing on gas price hikes in several cities such as Shenyang, Hefei and Changsha, November 12, China's largest gas consumer city ——— Beijing held a hearing on the adjustment of gas prices for residents.　　This is the May 31 National Development and Reform Commission issued "on the promotion of domestic land-based natural gas factory benchmark price notice" after the city residents use gas price adjustment according to the following compulsory. This round of gas price adjustment, to China's natural gas market supply and demand will bring about what impact? Almost every year in the winter and spring season will be a large area of the "gas shortage" phenomenon, this year will not repeat?　　The answer in an interview by the economic reference newspaper is startling: if the current trend in the natural gas market is disorderly, China's "gas shortage" problem may be inevitable.　　"Gas shortage" of "panic": the increasingly serious supply and demand situation of the development and Reform Commission raised the price of the hand just entered the threshold of winter, on the "Gas shortage" topic has again become the focus of social attention. Analysis of the topic of "gas shortage" is a cause of concern, Deputy director of the National Energy Bureau Wang Siqiang that, first of all, with the rapid development of urban construction and the improvement of people's living standards, natural gas consumption into ordinary people's homes, become the necessities of life, and in the past few years almost every winter,　　And in the hearts of the people left too deep memories, so that this winter "gas shortage" has not occurred, people first in the heart "panic"; second, according to the National Climate Center forecast, this winter is "cold winter" the probability of greater, the city heating situation is grim, natural gas demand will increase further, the contradiction between supply and demand may be more prominent. In fact, this year's gas supply tension has been quietly appearing in some places.　　There are reports that as a result of the recent drop in temperature, Wuhan daily gas has begun to rise sharply, than cooling before the increase of nearly 100,000 cubic meters, while in Beijing, more than 60% of the city's heating area using natural gas heating, the city's gas consumption is expected to reach 6.1 billion cubic meters, the last heating season increased by 6. People in the industry, including senior government officials, are nervous about the possible "gas shortage" problem this year. As early as the middle of October, the National Development and Reform Commission in Hangzhou organized the meeting to meet the peak of winter gas protection coordination, Tienan, deputy director of the NDRC, said: "By a large number of new users, rapid growth in consumer demand, gas peak capacity, as well as uncertain weather factors such as the impact of winter gas peak in the situation is not optimistic." "A report released earlier this year by the General administration of Customs confirmed that the domestic gas supply and demand gap has been expanding year by century, China's natural gas supply and demand gap of 2010 is expected to be about 30 billion cubic meters, the 2015 gas supply and demand gap will exceed 40 billion cubic meters."　　To fill the gap in the domestic gas market, can only choose from overseas imports ——— including overland through pipeline imports and ln g sea imports two kinds of channels. However, in China, compared with oil, as a high-quality clean energy of natural gas, a long time there is a low price phenomenon, which led to import daysHowever, the price of gas and domestic supply upside down contradictions outstanding.　　This has become an oil and gas suppliers "import is loss" of the unspeakable pain, on the other hand, is one of the reasons for the disorderly growth of domestic gas consumption. "With the change of supply and demand in the international and domestic energy market, the contradiction of domestic natural gas price is becoming more and more prominent." In order to promote the resource saving, rationalize the relationship between the price of natural gas and other alternative energy sources, guide the reasonable allocation of natural gas resources, decide to improve the price of domestic natural gas factory and perfect the policy and supporting measures of natural gas price.　　"The National Development and Reform Commission for the gas price adjustment of the" Declaration, opened a new round of national gas price rise prologue. "Gas shortage" of worry: the market supply and demand seriously unbalanced external dependence of the national Development and Reform Commission deputy Director, the Secretary for Energy, Zhang said in recent years, "gas shortage" of the reasons used four words: "supply and demand imbalance." According to analysis, the root cause of imbalance between supply and demand is not insufficient supply, but the downstream market demand to enlarge rapidly.　　Data show: North China's natural gas consumption compared with the same period last year, the general increase of more than 50%; It is understood that under the pressure of global climate change and the development of low-carbon economy, natural gas as a clean and efficient energy, in recent years, consumption has been explosive growth.　　Especially in China, with the rapid development of economy and the adjustment of energy consumption structure, the demand of natural gas market is booming. "Using natural gas can reduce sulfur dioxide and dust emissions by nearly 100%, reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 60% and nitrogen oxides emissions 50%, and help reduce the formation of acid rain, delay the greenhouse effect, and fundamentally improve environmental quality." Moreover, China's natural gas in a composition of energy consumption is still very low, or even less than the world average level of 1/10. "Experts judge from this," China's natural gas market development space is huge. However, due to the serious shortage of China's own reserves, the market supply and demand contradictions increasingly sharp, especially with the increasing natural gas imports, this gives China's natural gas supply increased risk. Data show that China has become a net natural gas importer since 2006, and the number of imports has been increasing. 2009, imports amounted to 7.8 billion cubic meters, external dependence of more than 8%; 2010, the gas gap will reach 30 billion cubic meters, foreign dependence to 12.8%; 2015, China's imports of natural gas will account for the total consumption of natural gas 30%; to 2020, China's natural gas dependence will reach 50　　About。 "It's a dangerous signal that people have to worry that China's gas consumption may fall into the ' oil spell '." "With the expansion of the market, future Chinese gas consumption may become as important as oil in the international market," a market analyst who has long been engaged in research on oil and gas resources told the economic reference newspaper. "It is forecast that China's crude oil imports will reach 77.85 million tonnes this year,External dependencies will exceed 54%. Dong Xiucheng, director of China Oil and Gas Development Research Center, China Petroleum University, thus judged: "The future of China's natural gas supply security problem, may exceed the oil."　　"He called for a change in the current situation of disorderly expansion of the natural gas consumption market, the relevant State departments should formulate scientific development planning, so that the natural gas industry to come out of a coordinated development of the upstream and downstream of the sustainable growth path." It is understood that as early as September 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission has stood in the "mitigation of natural gas supply and demand contradictions, optimize the use of natural gas structure, promote energy conservation and emission reduction" of the height, promulgated the "natural gas utilization policy."　　This policy stipulates that China's natural gas utilization policy shall be planned by the State, taking into account the reasonable demand of natural gas producing areas, insisting on differential treatment, ensuring natural gas priority for urban gas, promoting scientific utilization and orderly development of natural gas, insisting on saving priority and improving resource utilization efficiency. But in fact, the utilization of natural gas presents the status of disorderly development. For example, the scale of industrial gas is expanding. In particular, natural gas as the raw material of fertilizer production enterprises have launched, and caused a significant surplus of China's chemical fertilizer capacity.　　A national fertilizer capacity survey results show that in 2009 China's total capacity of fertilizer has reached 15 million tons, but many companies still have expansion plans. "Snort" of the way: in order to straighten out the price must increase the unconventional gas development and analysis of the reasons for the disorderly growth of natural gas consumption, many experts put the price factor in the first place. "As a clean energy source, China's gas prices are really very low compared to foreign gas prices," said Zhou Jiping, president of China Petroleum Corp. "Price is a sensitive topic, and standing in different angles may come to a completely different conclusion." The description from the middle school textbook may be more persuasive.　　Reporters in the high-grade geography book to see this text description: The advantage of natural gas is "clean, clean, easy to use, burning efficiency, relatively low price". From the point of law of value, price adjustment is considered as an effective means to regulate the supply and demand of market. It is understood that straightening out the price of energy resources such as oil and natural gas will become an important measure of "Twelve-Five" reform.　　The proposal of the CPC Central Committee on formulating the 12th plan of national economy and social development proposed that we should deepen the reform of the price and factor market of the resource products, straighten out the price relationship of the resources such as coal, electricity, oil and gas, and perfect the price forming mechanism. So, the national Development and Reform Commission of the price adjustment, can become a "regulation of market supply and demand, to solve the ' gas shortage ' problem" of the razor? "The Dong Xiucheng said in an interview with the Economic reference newspaper:" From the range of natural gas price adjustment, to curb the disorderly expansion of the downstream market will play a role, but in the long run, it is difficult to change our natural gas market supply and demand dilemma, the future occurrence of the "gas shortage" risk still exists. Dong Xiucheng said that China is a "rich coal, less oil, lack of gas" country. Statistical data show that the global proven residual recoverable natural gas resources of 185 trillion cubic meters, and China's natural gas proven residual recoverable reserves only 2.460,000billion cubic meters, accounting for only 1.3% of global resources. The amount of natural gas resources per capita is also poor, our country is only equivalent to 1/7 of the world average.　　Although the gas production of China's oil and gas production enterprises, led by PetroChina, has increased substantially in recent years, there is still a big gap in comparison with the more rapid growth of market demand. "To solve China's gas supply safety problem, we must have a multi-pronged approach." Dong Xiucheng said, "in increasing price reform, that is, the rationalization of natural gas price mechanism, but also to accelerate the pace of unconventional gas development, from the source of the growing dependence on the international gas market." It is understood that unconventional natural gas includes shale gas, coalbed methane and tight sandstone gas. According to a new study by a private think-tank ——— Bernstein Research, Bernsteinr Esearch, China's natural gas reserves will be as high as 3687 trillion cubic meters if the "unconventional" natural gas stored in rock formations and coal seams is counted. The "unconventional" storage of natural gas accounts for as much as 75% of China's proven natural gas reserves. According to "2010-2015 years of China's gas industry investment analysis and Prospect Forecast Report" analysis, China's unconventional natural gas resources are more than 5 times times the conventional natural gas, of which the amount of coal-bed methane is about 170 billion cubic meters, the amount of resources of shale gas initially estimated at about 30 trillion cubic meters,　　has great development potential and economic benefits. "There is no need for China to worry about a recent increase in gas shortages. "If many unconventional forms of natural gas are fully exploited, China is expected to get enough gas in more than 100 years," said Bernstein research researcher. "China's natural gas must break the" oil curse "-lixinmin, the White House Energy Security Advisor, David Sandro wrote a book titled" Breaking the Oil spell "——— how to get rid of oil dependence.　　As Americans who rely heavily on oil consumption are aggressively seeking a way out of their oil dependence, the 54% dependence on oil makes it a must for fast-growing China to break the "oil spell", seemingly as a new choice for gas consumption that has grown rapidly in recent years. However, in recent years, frequent "gas shortage" problem, let us have to produce a new thinking: as a "rich coal, less oil, lack of gas" of the developing country, China in the rapid growth of natural gas consumption, accompanied by a large increase in imports of natural gas.　　It is predicted that 5-10 years later, China's natural gas dependence on the degree will also exceed 50%. Will the future growth of China's natural gas fall into the "oil spell", and will it face the same growth dilemma as oil? When Americans shout "get rid of oil dependence", the Chinese seem to have reason to think more about the disorderly expansion of the gas market.