Chongqing Beer soaring stock price behind big fund gains have quadrupled

An ongoing and risky clinical project, after being blindly praised by the market, puts the shares of Chongqing beer on a towering cloud November 3, Chongqing Brewery Co., Ltd. (600132).　　SH, hereinafter referred to as Chongqing Beer, published a bulletin announcing the latest advances in clinical trials of "therapeutic use (synthetic peptide) hepatitis B vaccine".　　According to the latest requirements of the exchange, Chongqing Beer every month to disclose the progress of the vaccine.　　Societe Generale Securities analyst Wang Yu immediately released a report that the vaccine "a bright future", this is Wang Yu published the 20th "strongly recommended" Chongqing Beer Research Report. Earlier optimism was a report published in 2008 by Ma Renhui, a private securities analyst, that "Chongqing beer has been a myth in China's capital markets for ten years because of its investment in curable hepatitis B vaccine program." In a recent study in Chongqing, I think this myth is becoming a reality, according to the current clinical effects of the known curable hepatitis B vaccine. "November 4, Chongqing beer shares climbed 73.50 yuan, the price-earnings ratio of 186 times times." The recent surge in Chongqing beer has doubled in the two months to the end of August. It has to do with the enthusiastic recommendation reports of the aforementioned people.　　In fact, over the past more than 10 years, Chongqing beer more than 50% of the market has been up to six times, almost every time with its Chongqing Jia Chen Bioengineering Co., Ltd. "Hepatitis B vaccine" project development. However, after 12 years, the cost of billions of dollars in Chongqing beer hepatitis B vaccine can really get to market?　　What is the effect? The vaccine, led by the PLA's third military Medical University in Chongqing, and director of the PLA Immunology Institute, Yuzhang, is still in phase two clinical trials since 1989.　　A number of domestic liver disease experts told the economist that "only two clinical trials are in progress and cannot make assertions about the efficacy and availability of the vaccine". Our correspondent has repeatedly contacted Yuzhang in the PLA Institute of Immunology and was declined: "Only responsible to the state Drug Administration report The latest progress, the right to external disclosure." But the Ma Renhui told The Economist that his research involved clinical trial hospitals and Yuzhang himself. "Research has found that the results are better than expected and are likely to become a new type of drug," he said. Ma Renhui said, "Yuzhang himself is also full of confidence in the vaccine." "The study of chronic hepatitis B vaccine is very active in the world, but there are no three registered clinical studies." "Beijing Ditan Hospital deputy Dean, Liver Disease Center Director, the director of the Institute of Infectious Diseases Army to this newspaper reporter said:" Before the results of the study has not been published, it is difficult to objectively evaluate the treatment effect. Any speculation or comment is irresponsible.　　"Hepatitis B vaccine trapped Chongqing beer on the October 30, 1997, listed less than a year, that is, the acquisition of Jia Chen Biological, then the proportion of the shareholding to 93.1%." Jia Chen Biological goal is "go all out for the treatment of hepatitis B new drugs, such as the development of major projects." Main research BeltThe headman is Professor Yuzhang and frontier of the third military Medical University.　　At the end of 2005, Chongqing Beer in order to reward Professor Yuzhang, free of charge to Yuzhang 5% of the equity, donated to the frontier 3% of the equity, with net assets valued at about 8 million yuan. Studies from 1992 to 1995 showed that 10% of Chinese people were infected with the hepatitis B virus. Army introduced that by 2006, the positive rate of hepatitis B virus in Chinese general population was 7.18%. But in this population, a significant part of the virus carriers, transaminase level normal, liver tissue almost no inflammation and fibrosis, no treatment.　　Patients with hepatitis B, who need antiviral treatment, are estimated to be only 30 million. However, because of the public's hepatitis B epidemic many misreading, there is widespread "hepatitis B discrimination", even the hepatitis B virus carriers have a strong willingness to treat. For the treatment of hepatitis B, the clinic generally treats HBV DNA (nucleic acid) as a criterion for successful treatment. However, hepatitis B patients and the virus carriers have a higher treatment target, the hepatitis B virus markers are removed from the body, that is, the surface antigen to the yin, so that the virus can not be detected in the medical examination.　　But there is no cure in the world to fully achieve this goal. Director of the Institute of Infectious Diseases of the People's Liberation Army, head of the 302 Hospital liver Disease Immunotherapy Center, Wang Fusheng that the most difficult treatment of hepatitis B is that the immune function of patients with chronic hepatitis B has a certain degree of disorder, and the existing drugs are very difficult to restore the patient's immunity, to achieve surface antigen to "The goal of the therapeutic hepatitis B vaccine is to improve the immune response to antiviral and improve liver function, and the effect is persistent." "There is a market for all kinds of publicity about hepatitis B treatment."　　"The PLA 302 Hospital, integrated Chinese and Western medicine liver disease director Liu Shijing said, there are a variety of therapeutic hepatitis B vaccine has attracted much attention." Another domestic clinical trial of the treatment of hepatitis B vaccine, is by Fudan University Chinese Academy of Engineering, Fudan University professor Yiu Yumei led the development of the name "antigen-antibody composite therapeutic Hepatitis B vaccine" (hereinafter referred to as "B gram"), began in 1988. Yiu Yumei has been low-key, but at the end of March this year, Chongqing beer stock price limit, she had interviewed, disclosed the "B" progress. In a recent interview with The Economist, she said that the three-stage clinical trial of "B-gram" had been completed and was currently in the "final stage", and that tens of thousands of specimens were being tested. The test results will be reported to the FDA at about the end of the year. Asked about the possibility of "B" becoming a new drug, Yiu Yumei cautioned, "I can't say yet." "And two of doctors familiar with the vaccine's clinical trial said," ' B ' effect is generally equivalent to ordinary interferon, and after the cessation of treatment, some patients have rebounded.　　"This has also made the industry's assessment of the study of good-chen biology cautious."　　Compared with most of the therapeutic hepatitis B vaccines being developed worldwide, Yuzhang says he has adopted a different technical route. Published in the Journal of the third Military Medical University in October 2002In a paper, Yuzhang wrote: So far all vaccines against chronic hepatitis B have failed, probably because they are based on a vaccine that is derived from prophylactic vaccines, i.e. surface antigen.　　His subject group "replaces natural antigen with analog antigen", overcomes the body's tolerance to natural antigen, and adopts molecular design method in the design of analog antigen, and establishes the technical route of "epitope based vaccine design".　　What is the progress and effectiveness of this study?　　What is the trial installments?　　According to the Chongqing Beer November 3 announcement, as of October 31, 2010, the "Hepatitis B vaccine for chronic hepatitis Two clinical study", led by Peking University People's Hospital as the Central laboratory, is undergoing normal clinical trials in all clinical hospitals, and currently 27 subjects have completed 76 weeks of clinical trial.　　At the same time, a two-phase clinical trial of "Hepatitis B vaccine combined with entecavir for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B patients", led by the first affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University Medical College, is in the process of screening group work for subjects, and 206 subjects are currently in the group. "The first phase of the trial is mainly about safety, as long as there is no serious adverse reaction generally can be successfully passed." Two-stage trials were conducted to evaluate the efficacy of clinical trials, and their efficacy could not be judged until the end of phase Ii.　　"Beijing Ditan Hospital Infection Branch doctor Shangman to this newspaper reporter introduction." According to Chinese regulations, new drugs must be tested in clinical trials before they are available for public use, usually in three phases to determine their safety and effectiveness. The first phase of clinical trials is usually a short-term small-scale trial, the main observation of the safety of new drugs and the determination of the appropriate dosage, the effect of observation is not the focus of this period; the second phase of the clinical trial for medium-scale trials, the main observation of the efficacy of new drugs, further observation of safety, adjust and determine the appropriate dosage　　Third-stage clinical trial for long-term large-scale trials to confirm the efficacy and safety of new drugs, determine the amount of drugs. After the end of the third phase clinical trial, the Drug Development Agency will issue a test report to the State administration of Drug Administration to determine whether the drug can be listed.　　After the listing generally also needs to carry on the four stage clinical trial, in order to on the large-scale drug safety and the curative effect observation, at this time the serious adverse reaction still can face the risk of withdrawing the market. From the stage, the current Chongqing beer on the "treatment (synthetic peptide) hepatitis B vaccine" Two trials are two phase clinical trial.　　What is different is that the experiment of the center of Peking University People's Hospital is only to study the efficacy of the vaccine, and the trial of the first affiliated hospital of Zhejiang University Medical College will investigate the effect of the combination of the vaccine and the entecavir, and Entecavir is a kind of hepatitis B antiviral drug commonly used in clinic. More precisely, the current clinical trial of the treatment (synthetic peptide) Hepatitis B vaccine is in phase two, and the previous phase two phase a test focused on "safety". "That is to say, the tests that have been completed so far have only proved their safety, and data on the effectiveness of the vaccine against the human body has not yet occurred." "A famous infectious disease hospital in BeijingA doctor who declined to be named said to the Economist. International independent AIDS Research and policy think-tank "Treatment Action Group" (TAG) published in September 2010, "AIDS, tuberculosis and viral hepatitis" shows that the international clinical trials of a variety of therapeutic hepatitis B vaccine are in one or two phases.　　The vaccine, developed by only one Korean company, is in phase four, but it is used in conjunction with another drug, which is also in a phase of zadaxin.　　The caution of the researchers behind the soaring stock price and the huge risk in the development of new drugs are easily overlooked in the stock market. "The product is highly likely to be marketed after three years as the first choice for the treatment of hepatitis B," said Lio Van, a former security researcher and a research fellow in China-created securities, in a February 2009 report. Conservative calculation, the first year after the listing can achieve nearly 500 million yuan sales revenue and 200 million yuan net profit, in 10 years after the listing will likely be about 30% of the growth rate, resulting in tens of billions of yuan sales revenue.　　However, when the Economist called Lio Van, he declined to disclose the reasons for the conclusions and the detailed investigation process. April 1, 2010, China-created securities researcher Gao Gao released research report, said that in the Chongqing Brewery management and the vaccine clinical trial of one of the relevant staff in the Tang hospital to investigate, found that "2 patients (male) e antigen to Yin, 1 patients with virus drop two log". According to the report, "the basic conclusion is that 2 cases of e-antigen conversion should be the efficacy of the therapeutic synthetic peptide hepatitis B vaccine."　　"Chongqing Beer just went through a trading board before the report was released," he said. "The investors of these vaccines, or the enthusiasts of the stock market, may be more likely than experts to advertise. "A doctor said," The experiment is not finished, the research results of the paper is not published, repeatedly disclosed the test progress, this move is inconsistent with international drug research and Development of the Convention. "There are indeed two patients who appear to have e-antigen turned cloudy." The doctor surnamed Wang, who is in charge of the trial at the hospital infection division of the Medical University of the four, confirmed it, but she stressed that "all the trials are not finished yet and cannot come to a conclusion."　　"Because the two trial was" random, Double-blind, "in other words, neither the clinician nor the subjects were able to know whether they were injecting drugs or placebos during the trial. "Such a result is entirely possible, and it is possible for the placebo group to appear." "Wang Fusheng told our correspondent," in natural conditions, the surface antigen of the conversion rate of 1%-2%,e antigen is higher than the rate of conversion. "Wang Fusheng and stressed," clinical trials are a rigorous task, and the end result will not be known until it is uncovered. Not all securities analysts recommend Chongqing beer. Li Ping, an analyst at the pharmaceutical industry who specializes in pharmaceuticals, said he did not recommend Chongqing beer to clients because "new drug research depends on data."　　Clinical trials are not finished, and not all possible, how to recommend it? The famous Internet forum on liver disease in China "hepatobiliary"On the" treatment (synthetic peptide) hepatitis B vaccine, under the main post, the speaker was repeatedly warned: "I fear you will be very few people in the stock market to use. "The big Fund's many funds become the Chongqing beer most steadfast watchmen." From the first quarter of 2009 to the 20,103 quarter, the big Fund's seven fund positions have more than 45 million shares, close to Chongqing Brewery 10% of the total capital, occupy the top ten shareholders five seats. In less than two years, the average price of the announcement date, the fund's book earnings in Chongqing's beer have quadrupled at least twice.