Coal supply and demand will maintain weak equilibrium state

Coal supply and demand are expected to maintain a weak equilibrium in the two quarter.　　Based on the discounted valuation method of resource value, it is expected that China's economic bottoming and liquidity adequacy will lead to the intensification of inflation expectation and the future recovery of coal prices in the international and domestic level. Xiaohanping, a senior coal analyst at CIC Securities Research Institute, Ph. D. in economics, 4 years of research experience in coal industry. Is the industry first put forward to the value of coal evaluation analysts, has taken the lead in the excavation of Xishan coal power, Kailuan shares, Taurus Energy, Hengyuan Coal and other shares of investment opportunities.　　In October 2008 was named "2007 China's best industry analyst." 09 By the impact of Tun-LAN mining disaster, small coal mine rehabilitation plan was postponed, and recently issued a "on the organization of Small coal mine gas special rectification Notice", on the one hand, will raise the production cost of small coal mines, on the other hand, will close the small coal mine is not eligible.　　From the current small coal mine shutdown situation, market analysts expect the annual impact of production should be comparable to 08, about 100 million tons. Clearly, this has emboldened the price of coal. From the recent trend of coal prices, power coal, anthracite, coke prices have been clearly stabilized, some species even rebounded.　　Corresponding to the A-share market, the coal sector has also been sought after by investors, there has been a sustained rise in the situation. But for the future changes in coal supply and demand, the views of the various analysts have great differences. Nearly half of analysts are still wary of future coal demand, with Gusanjian, the coal industry analyst at the East China Sea, who believes the market liquidity push will weaken in the coming period and that the market will return to a fundamentally dominant stage. He thinks the industry as a whole has a higher valuation and there is no need to keep chasing higher. The optimistic faction, represented by CIC Securities Xiaohanping, believes that with the effect of national economic stimulus, the demand for coal in the downstream industry will rise steadily. The future coal supply will remain in a weak equilibrium state.　　Industry valuations are still expected to rise. The downstream industry is the most basic energy resource in China, and coal is in the absolute leading position in the energy supply.　　In the coal consumption, electricity, steel and building materials, chemical composition of the domestic main coal consumption industry. In terms of domestic demand, output from the main coal-consuming sector is bottoming out, which means coal demand will pick up gradually.　　Affected by the global financial crisis and economic recession, 2008 years of the Four seasons of domestic economic rapid decline, four quarters of the domestic main consumption of coal industry fell to the bottom, but with the central stimulus policy of economic growth in succession, downstream consumption of coal industry output gradually out of the valley. Data show that the power industry is the main coal consumption industry, accounting for more than 50% of domestic coal consumption, since August 08, the domestic growth rate of thermal power quickly fell, October began to show negative growth, after the decline in the trend of electricity growth gradually put, The first quarter of this year's thermal power from the last four quarters of two-digit negative growth rebounded to single-digit negative growth. Look at the steel industry, steel is the second largest coal consumption industry, 08 years of the Four Seasons of steel productionMonthly decline, a number of consecutive months of negative growth, but in December under the influence of economic growth stimulus plan, 1-February domestic pig iron showed positive growth.　　In addition, 08 domestic cement industry production remained relatively stable, production growth in single-digit level, the first 2 months of this year, the cement industry to maintain positive growth trend. Overall, Xiaohanping that the domestic main consumption of coal industry in the 08 years after the rapid decline in the four seasons, under the influence of national economic growth policy, there are different degrees of recovery, from the current production growth trend, he judged: the current domestic production of the main coal consumption has basically gone out of the trough, It can be expected that with the initial development of economic growth stimulus policy, production growth in the main coal-consuming sector in the two quarter is expected to increase steadily, with normal growth expected to resume in the second half. In the second quarter, the supply and demand of domestic coal supply and demand will maintain the weak equilibrium condition.　　According to Xiaohanping analysis, 08 China's coal market experienced the first half of the supply strain to the four quarter supply surplus change, into 09 in the main coal province for Limited and Indina, the coal market to maintain the basic supply and demand balance. China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Index (PMI) was 52.4% in March, up 3.4% from last month, according to a survey released by the Chinese Federation of Logistics and purchasing. The survey of more than 700 manufacturers also showed that China's manufacturing PMI index rebounded continuously in April, following last month's index of production and new orders, and March, when a composite index PMI and purchasing index rebounded to 50% points above the threshold, reaching 52.4% and 54% respectively.　　Accordingly, Xiaohanping believe, this will form the coal industry an indirect positive. Now investors have a more concerned about the problem is the small coal recovery. Because of the current coal supply in China, small and medium-sized coal mines in the domestic coal supply is in an important position, and small and medium-sized coal mining way backward, production safety accidents occur frequently. Shanxi as the supply area of China's coal, frequent mine accidents have caused the local government attaches great importance. In order to improve the safety of coal production, in 09 Shanxi provincial government took a number of measures, such as speeding up the merger and reorganization of small and medium-sized coal mines, the closure of illegal small coal mines and the request by the end of 10, the province's mine scale reached 900,000 tons/year, and all to achieve the mechanized mechanized　　The implementation of these measures will have a significant impact on coal supply in the 09.　　Finally, in the analysis of the impact of coal resources import on the domestic market, Xiaohanping that imports will increase the short-term domestic coal supply, but in general in the second quarter, as the international coal prices rise, coal import and export will maintain a balanced state. To sum up, Xiaohanping predicted that in the main coal production province due to the impact of production safety and limit policy, domestic coal production growth has been effectively controlled, the first quarter of the domestic coal supply and demand to achieve a low level of supply and demand under the basic balance of the state, is expected to two quarter with China's economic recovery, domestic coal demand At the same time, domestic coal supply will be due to small and medium coalMine production and foreign coal imports increased, but due to the supply management policies of major coal-producing provinces and the rebound in international market coal prices, the expected two-quarter domestic coal supply will not increase significantly, coal supply is expected to remain relatively balanced. Industry valuations are expected to rise further after nearly 4 months of value-fixing, the current valuations of most coal stocks have reached or exceed the value of the resource-value approach, which suggests that the market is now emerging from a gloomy outlook for the coal industry.　　From the recent trend of coal stocks, the market shows optimism in the coal market, which is closely related to China's macroeconomic recovery, the recovery of coal industry demand and the rapid decline of coal stocks. The coal stock valuation is based on the industry to maintain the first half of the 08 tons of coal profit level, that is, the company's valuation is based on the 09 coal sales average price and operating costs and the first half of 08 is basically flat, but after the early coal market price trend tracking, Xiaohanping found: Although the domestic coal market But at present the domestic coal price level is generally higher than the first half of 08 level.　　Coal prices are higher than the same period last year, which will make domestic coal stocks more overvalued than we would expect in 08 's medium-term earnings levels. In addition to the level of coal prices above the same period last year will enhance the profitability of the industry, according to the investigation of listed companies and related industry product price level tracking found: the 09 coal industry operating costs there is a decline in space, such as material costs, production costs and even labor costs are falling space.　　In addition, Xiaohanping that, as a result of the domestic economic recovery, the rise in coal demand, international energy products bottoming out, coupled with ample liquidity-induced inflation expectations, the expected late in the domestic price of some coal products in the three or four quarter of the possibility of rising. The first quarter of the macroeconomic and coal industry run shows that at present, the domestic economy has obviously warmed up, the coal industry and marketing basically tend to normal, later with China and the global economic stimulus policy implementation and implementation, the Coal industry operating external environment will gradually improve, coal demand will be stable rebound, international and domestic coal prices are expected to steadily rise　　, the positive change of external environment will effectively raise the valuation level of coal industry. Therefore, based on the macroeconomic recovery and coal prices rising expectations, Xiaohanping to the coal industry "bullish" rating, based on valuation risk, the three sub-industry optimistic order: power coal industry, coking coal industry, anthracite industry. In the coal industry listed companies, he suggested that investment focus on four types of companies: a class of companies with larger non-coal assets. Second, focus on long-term endogenous growth potential of the company. Third, the controlling shareholder has a large scale of assets to inject the company. Four, there are still companies with valuation discounts. Combining the above four factors and considering the current valuation level, he proposes to focus on the following companies: China Shenhua, Xishan coal power, Datong coal industry, Kailuan shares.