Country 10 Full Moon property Market Road where

Every reporter Zhang Wu Wenkun May 17, 2010, the real estate sector continued to lead the stock market decline, down as high as 7.94%. Among them, 49 house shares fell more than 9%, the closing dismal.　　This day, to regulate the real estate market, the new "Country 10" issued, just over one months.　　In this so-called "history of the most severe" regulation of the tide, the first-tier cities and some housing prices rose too fast city turnover was "halved", house prices slowed, some regional housing prices turned downward, there is a view that the policy effect is "immediate". After such a strong policy, can we really stabilize the market? What is the limit of the developer's tolerance? Is there any future policy?　　"Daily Economic News" invited 3 industry veterans to read this one by one.　　Funds to support the price NBD: "Country 10" issued one months, but the house prices have not really declined, and even some individual projects against the wind rise, how do you think of this phenomenon? Fan Xiaochong: Individual real estate ups and downs can not be a benchmark for measuring policy effects. After all, real estate sales is a market behavior, according to the scarcity of products, the customer's judgment, enterprises can decide to increase prices or decline.　　Although relatively, the price is not as good as selling prices, but some real estate business costs have been recovered, cash flow is also very abundant, so can guarantee profits. Ma Guangyuan: The release of the policy to have a process, it is impossible to suddenly appear so big changes; The real estate interest game is also a very complex process, the new deal does not appear immediate changes are normal.　　But to see that the policy itself has produced effect, before the launch of the Panic of the stock market has not, and now the turnover has fallen sharply, then the next step is the price down.　　NBD: The root cause of the developers ' strong housing prices is cash flow? Fan Xiaochong: It has something to do with it. The 2008 real Estate trough is the result of excessive expansion of housing enterprises, many companies to buy land, start, there are many betting on the listing. Suddenly, the world financial crisis broke out, sales also to the freezing point, the developer's cash flow broke, can only be forced to reduce prices. And now many developers already have a lot of cash in hand, or say "there is surplus in hand", has not yet to price.　　However, the situation of developers is also different, there have been large-scale financing of the developers, cash flow is more abundant; before a few pieces of "king" developers, now the pressure is very big. Ma Guangyuan: I think that cash flow is a false proposition, the flow of water is a backwater, is not to live. Cash flow is a dynamic concept, dynamic view, real estate enterprise cash flow situation is very tense, real estate enterprise debt rate is very high. At the same time, the state has tightened credit and listing policies for real estate companies, and from this point of view, the ongoing cash supply is also sealed.　　If misjudged the bottom line of the policy, developers must eat big losses.　　Price to return to the second half of last year NBD: Now there is a voice said that the NDRC in the formulation of tougher policy policies, government regulation of the emboldened where? Ma Guangyuan: The GovernmentRegulation, mainly because the price is unreasonable. In addition, GDP growth in the first quarter of this year reached 11.9% per cent, providing a powerful condition for regulating high housing prices. Even in order to control the real estate, to suppress three points, we still have 8.9%. Today, the contribution of real estate to GDP is less than 1%, unlike the 2008 has affected the economic development, can not play down.　　In addition, the current local debt is not as serious as everyone said, the impact of real estate regulation on the local economy is manageable category.　　NBD: What kind of housing prices to be adjusted in place? Fan Xiaochong: How to Rise up, how to fall down. This year's housing boom is entirely a panic-driven demand, pure foam, back to the original is very normal.　　From the point of view of time, house prices will certainly not return to the 2008 lows, because that is all the real estate companies in order to save a low point, I think it is relatively reasonable to return to the third quarter of 2009 price.　　Ma Guangyuan: I think we should return to the price level at the end of 2009, about 30% or so, so that the policy can be effective. Newferry: We can not simply look at housing prices, now need to understand that the central goal is to "curb the rapid rise in housing prices", "promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market", which is different from the crackdown on house prices. I think it is not necessarily a good thing to suppress house prices simply by administrative means.　　If the housing prices can be suppressed to make the real estate market healthy development, it is too simple, so that the price is short-term, local, unsustainable.　　Vigilant policy "negative effect" NBD: In this round of real estate regulation, the government's bottom line is what? Fan Xiaochong: The bottom line of the Government is to make the industry healthy. Some cities are too fast rising housing prices, it is intolerable, this situation to develop, not only can not afford to buy a house problem, but also cause resentment.　　So now the government is not to suppress the real estate industry, is to cut off the cancer industry, through the adjustment of supply and consumption structure, so that real estate more reasonable and healthy development, I am still full of confidence in the development of this industry.　　NBD: After the introduction of the policy, many developers have been affected by the investment enthusiasm, this will not affect the future market supply, and bring a new round of supply and demand tension? Newferry: Yes, the existing policy has affected the investment enthusiasm of the developers, some developers began to suspend the development of new projects, but also slowed the pace of land, if this situation continues, will have a significant impact on the supply of the market for the next year or two.　　In fact, the main reason why prices rose sharply in the second half of last year was that 2008 years of real estate investment did not follow. Another point to consider is how much the real estate industry plays in the macro economy. The upper reaches of the real estate industry are steel, cement, building materials industry, the downstream has household appliances, furniture, home decoration industry, in addition to the end of the property services.　　If the real estate industry shrinks, these industries will be affected by a knock-on effect on our overall macroeconomic development is not any good.　　NBD: Will there be more policies in the future? Newferry: I am particularly opposed to policy-intensive introduction. The effect of any policy has a lag, not like "eat two steamed bread on the full" so simple. While we discuss possible policies in the future, we must also take into account the negative effects of existing policies and patiently observe the effects of existing policies.　　Cannot because excessive regulation causes the market to appear repeatedly, both gives the house buyer a stable anticipation, also gives the developer a stable expectation. Conclusion: Thank you to the experts for their excellent views. Although the policy is now vigorous, but we still have to calmly and rationally look at this problem, because the real estate market is not only related to people's livelihood, but also involves the overall macroeconomic development. We will have to wait and see for the effect of this round of policy.　　Thank you! Dialogue guest Newferry, researcher of Institute of Urban Development and Environment of Cass Fan Xiaochong, Executive vice President Ma Guangyuan economist, Sun Bai Real Estate Group