Deposit reserve ratio rises in the bond market to the T-junction.

Xinhua Beijing May 4, the question: Deposit reserve ratio to the bond market to go to "T Junction" Xinhua news agency reporters Huayadi, Lo Yufan, Tao Junjie bond market "good days" may have to come to an end, on the one hand, the imminent increase in reserve ratio or the debt market funds face "blood", on the other hand The potential for a reversal in the supply of debt since the beginning of the year has led to a widening of uncertainty in the bond market. Left or right?　　The bond market went to the "T-junction".　　The People's Bank of China 2nd decided to increase the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5% from 10th, and the rural credit cooperatives and village banks should not raise them.　　In contrast to the two previous increases in reserve requirements, industry insiders tend to think that the tightening of the increase will be significantly larger than the previous two, the impact on the bond market will be different than the previous two, the return rate is more likely to rise.　　In December this year, the deposit reserve ratio increased by two degrees, but the bond market has not produced too much negative impact, not only the market funds remain loose, but also to increase the market to the economic downward expectations, become a bond city bullish fuse.　　The move, from the Citic Securities Research Department, argues that the increase would raise the reserve requirements for large commercial banks to 17% per cent, approaching a record high of 17.5% per cent, and that the continued rise in reserve ratios could allow some banks to passively shrink their peers or bond assets at a time when many banks ' average excess reserves are below 2% "The increase in the reserve requirement ratio will be significantly larger than the previous two, bond yields are more likely to rebound."　　"The CICC Fixed Income department executive general manager Xu Xiaoqing Analysis said, the pick-up amplitude then needs to observe the management regulation intention to make the judgment." Reporters observed that the market to the central bank in this time node to announce the increase in reserve requirements of the ratio of different understanding, Goldman Sachs, Gao Securities and other institutions believe that the increase in reserve requirements to pass the policy tightening of the clear signal, the impact on market contraction will gradually increase; UBS Securities and other institutions think it is mainly for recycling　　And could lead to further austerity measures being postponed.　　Xu Xiaoqing Analysis said that if the regulator is to change the liquidity situation, then the "broad currency, tight credit" the basis may be shaken, the return rate will be larger; if the regulator still wants a modest return on liquidity, then yields will rise slightly.　　Wang Haoyu, the first venture researcher, tends to think that the central bank's third increase in reserve requirements is to use conventional quantitative tools to manage liquidity, and that, as in the previous two, this adjustment will not make a significant change in the financial situation, the bond market to a good situation unchanged. It is noteworthy that the continued supply shortfall in the bond market this year will be reversed in May. According to CICC estimates, May bond net increase will be increased by more than April billion, "combined with the increase in reserve ratio, bond supply situation may be reversed, into a slightly greater than the demand", which, in addition to the central vote in the issuance of other bonds in May will be 70 more than April0 yuan to 80 billion yuan. The Wanguo Institute believes that the rapid downward trend in yields has passed, and as bond supply increases and liquidity shrinks, the factors that drive the bond market will change, and fundamentals will "relay" liquidity factors into the bond market's main drivers for some time to come.