Devaluation of euro causes foreign trade dilemma

Source: Internet
Author: User
Keywords Dilemma timing RMB euro
Tags analysts continued dialogue economic exchange exchange rate export external
-What is le the Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue will be held in Beijing next week, and the two sides will discuss many topics, including the renminbi exchange rate. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu reiterated yesterday that China would reform its currency in the light of global and domestic conditions. And some analysts pointed out that the European debt crisis caused the euro continued to lower, has actually caused the appreciation of the renminbi, China's foreign trade is facing great pressure.  The instability of internal and external situation will postpone the timing of RMB exchange rate adjustment. The euro has fallen 14% per cent against the renminbi because of fears that a revaluation could affect Chinese exporters, and that the government is wary of currency reform.  But in the current situation, the euro weakness caused by the European debt crisis has actually caused harm to Chinese exporters. In the past 4 months, the renminbi has risen 14.5% against the euro and rose to a peak of 8.3815:1 since 2002, the Commerce Ministry spokesman Yao Jian said recently. "Chinese exporters will suffer greater cost pressures and China's exports to Europe are also negatively affected." "The European Union is China's main export market, and the devaluation of the euro has led to a significant decline in China's export share of the eurozone." In the economic data released yesterday by Eurostat, the eurozone has achieved a trade surplus for two consecutive months in February of this year, with imports and exports rising by more than 20% over a year earlier, so the overall trade surplus between China and Europe will shrink sharply this year.  If the revaluation at this time, will aggravate the cost burden of export enterprises. The renminbi's real effective exchange rate, which has risen markedly since the European sovereign debt crisis, is pegged to the dollar, which means China may be returning to managing the renminbi in the context of a basket of trading partner currencies, as it did before 2008, as the euro weakens and the renminbi does not need to fluctuate much against the dollar.  The renminbi's real exchange rate has risen 2% per cent against the dollar since November last year, according to the Bank for International Settlements, which has led to a big reduction in the renminbi's appreciation. The domestic inflation situation is complex with the last month's macroeconomic data, the CPI has been more innovative, making domestic inflation expectations further strengthened. Some analysts expect inflation in June to reach its highest level in the Year 5.  But the rise in global energy and commodity prices, caused by the European debt crisis, has slowed, with oil and copper plunging, to some extent reducing inflationary pressures in China. At a time when the world economy is in the midst of the most turbulent period, investors need to choose the dollar and gold to risk the most, and the domestic recent real estate policy regulation and stock market plunge, these factors make the international hot money will not be in the near future large-scale influx of China, the appreciation of the hot money inflow worries  The reduction in input inflation pressure has also weakened the need for the import of external inflationary pressures to be blocked through appreciation. Thus, while the central bank's monetary policy report has hinted at the possibility of the central bank adjusting the exchange rate regime in the near future, the complexity of the internal and external situation and the real appreciation of the renminbi will delay the Chinese governmentThe timing of currency adjustment.
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