Disruptive innovation is the concept mentioned in Professor Christensen's famous "Innovator's Dilemma" book.

"Disruptive innovation" is the concept mentioned in Professor Christensen's famous "Innovator's Dilemma" book. He tells us how hard innovation can be in a successful subject. In the 1800, the world's most profitable companies were those that operated sailing, which had become global businesses. Then the steam ship was invented, without sails, by steam turbines to start. The advent of the steam ship was a terrible experience of transportation-small and short compared to a sailboat, expensive to manufacture and poor in reliability. The big shipping company didn't put it in the eye.

However, despite all the uncertainty, but the steam ship has an advantage, that is, can move upstream, which changed the human thousands of years can only "downstream" history. With the development of technology, steam ships become cheaper, more reliable and more bulky. Finally, the technology of the steam ship matured, not only destroyed the big sailing boat, but also eliminated those who rely on the big sailing boat shipping companies.

Disruptive innovation technology was a joke at first.

To sum up: disruptive and innovative technologies have a pattern: when they first appeared, they were obscure things that were overlooked. You can see these three lines: The above line is a very good market leader, there is a very smooth development curve; The following curve is the lowest level of consumer satisfaction, the bottom point, is the emergence of disruptive innovation enterprises. At first, disruptive and innovative technology was far worse than the customer's request, a joke. However, when it develops at a faster rate, it suddenly meets the demand point of consumers, it will produce rapid development momentum and become the ruler of the market.

For startups with disruptive technology, they have struggled, the quality of work is very low, the risk is very high, the profit is very low, the market is very small, the business model has not been taken seriously, the rational businessman will not do this business. Why do startups and small businesses do these innovations? Because they have no choice. A very, very scary fact is that most startups end up dead!

In addition, no matter what industry you are in, the one that really poses the greatest threat to you is not an opponent in the current industry, and you don't see any competitors outside of those industries. Next, I want to tell you about the areas that I think might be subversive.

From the Bronze Age to the oxygen age

The first thing I want to say is that the fastest growth in the world is not matter, it's information. It is faster than all of our biological capacity, human productivity. How big is the amount of information in the world? You need to use 16 times 276 times to describe. The length of the wire that humans create every second is faster than the speed of sound. This is called the explosion of information, the speed with which the explosion of the atom bomb is the same. And this is a lasting explosion, far from an instant.

By 2050, the volume of data will reach a very scary 1 million zetabit. One zetabit is 1 trillion g. The next era is called the Zeta era, and after the Zeta era, what is a lot more information to describe? English is already a poor word. I've talked to a lot of linguists about the problem, and they don't have the answers. In the face of such a large amount of information, we do not even have a good mathematical algorithm to deal with data in real time. How to make use of this data and make it into something valuable? There are a lot of business opportunities in this area.

Different Business Times use different media to deliver information. The early days were copper, because people used cables to transmit them, and then into the silicon era, silicon made chips. I think the next era is the era of oxygen. In the near future, the total amount of information we transmit over the wireless network will exceed the total amount of information transmitted over the wired network.

Personal data is the big future.

There is also a trend in future data: Many of the data are now being transported through undersea optical cables across the continent, and are geographically transmitted. However, much of the data will be left to local processing, and even the total amount of information processed per household may be larger than the amount of data left locally. To expand one level, each of us produces a lot of data every day. In the radio age, the audience number is a large scale, by the broadcasting station to touch; to the internet age, the emergence of blogs and social media, you become a radio station, you can have a lot of audiences, but you pass less information, far inferior to radio stations; Then there was a little faith circle, passed to a relatively small audience, But the amount of information is very large. I think the future is the time when everyone transmits their message.

Amazon's big site has a node to control a lot of viewers, we call it "cloud", the lower level is some local sending station, we call it "fog", and the bottom of the grid is called, is each of us as the receiver. I predict that the data will be transferred more to each person's smart device than to a transmitter, switch or cloud. We have formed a small local area network. By 2020, more than 2/3 of the information transmission distance will not exceed 1 km. So, like WiFi, Bluetooth technology and so on, although not the telecommunications level of technology, is not very serious, low profit, the market is very small, there are many problems, but is it possible to subvert the future?

The ability to intervene in a network is more important than ownership

Another disruptive technique is cloud technology. In a group of 500 people, the amount of information is 500 square, and the amount of information in another 500 group is 500 square. If these two groups are networked, they can produce a 1000 square-level amount of data, much larger than two 500 squared. The traditional expansion of the network is very simple, that is, to connect these small networks into a larger network. Increasing the size of the network brought about by the geometric multiple. So, there is a big cloud that is more valuable than the one you scatter into a lot of small networks. From this internet perspective, the more people, the more you offer each customer the cost of 0 to infinity, you can basically provide a free service. As cloud technology continues to evolve, the ability to intervene in a network is more important than the ownership that is actually owned. Since property is the foundation of capitalism, now we are subverting ownership, which is a very important thing for capitalism.

All business is data business.

No matter what you do now, your business is data business. The data you have about customers is just as important to you as your customers. Data can flow through the network, from one format to another. Data should not be defined as its storage, and should be defined by its flow.

In the past data age, we used files, folders, desktops and stuff. After entering the internet age, the data appears on the Web page, the link. Today we use the cloud to compare data with labels and streams. For now, folders, Web pages, etc. are not the most important data. Everything is in our data stream, there is information, there is news. The key words of the past is me, now the key word is we; We are in the first day of the new era of the Internet, the most important moment. Then we need to learn how to quantify ourselves, and I've been involved in projects like this, and have some of our own information going to data.

We use a lot of equipment to quantify ourselves. Some of the people I know will have more than 40 sensors on their bodies, constantly testing their data. I've been betting with a man that any data that a human tool can measure must be measured. Why are we tracking this data? There are health reasons, social reasons, and reasons to improve productivity. There are also a number of cutting-edge data-measuring tools, such as a tool to analyze the compounds in our breathing gas, and to determine your blood condition by analyzing breathing. Apple's watch is also a constant collection of your data, processed by app. Through data analysis, we can see which day is the most efficient, what we ate on that day, and what things we did to improve our efficiency. We can learn more about ourselves and improve our productivity in this way.

It's just the early days of sharing.

Now the hot topic of discussion is the ubiquitous camera monitor. However, the internet always wants to monitor and collect data, it is difficult to stop this trend. We have a camera on every cell phone, which means there are 6 billion cameras all over the world. The rise of social media has kept us constantly reporting our position.

I made a movie with Spielberg. Called the Minority Report, the hero wanted to escape from the environment he had been followed, but he found that every time he went to a place, the ads on the screen turned into ads for him. We are now talking about the prism of the pornographic and NSA, and we all know that our data have been collected unsafe. We can't stop the data being collected, we should think about how to control the pattern of data collection from one organization to another, and then we can observe each other. For example, police in the United States bring a sensor camera to monitor the citizens in real time, and in turn, citizens can take this thing to monitor what the police have done to us.

Personalization is positively related to transparency. If you hide yourself completely and do not share any data with others, your personalization is zero. If you want to be a person with personality, you have to show your own data to the outside and convey your message.

We are still in the age of tradition and frontier, and many people say: I don't share my medical data, financial data, or share my sex life with anyone else. But these are just your views. I think people will share this data in the future and we are still in the early days of sharing.

Augmented reality, new interactive interface and visual tracking

We all know Google Glasses, and now wearable smart hidden glasses can be directly attached to your cornea. Wearable equipment is more than glasses, it may become clothes. We use it to receive data and also to pass data, interacting with it through various frictions. We also made a wearable vest for the blind, with a camera on it, to see the front and to tell the blind man how to go by vibration.

These are augmented reality, which I learned in college is this major. Augmented reality it's cool to combine virtual objects in some way with the real world you see.

New interactive interface, as I demonstrated in the Minority Report. Tom Cruise is operating a computer, not like we do on the keyboard, but all over the body to interact with a machine. Every part of our body should be able to operate a computer. If I were going to do a sci-fi movie again, I would never let the protagonist use the keyboard to operate the computer, I would have him do some gestures and look like he was working.

In addition, visual tracking. It will keep track of where your eyes look and know what you are looking at. Through visual tracking, we can also capture his emotions, use these techniques to track his eyeballs, see what emotions change as he reads, and change our content accordingly. The result is that when we look at the screen, it actually looks at us. We can then modify our work based on this feedback.

Voice technology is also much more than Apple's Siri technology, such as translation. There is a real-time translation tool, the picture is taken in Spanish, the display becomes English. This is an idea of our last interpersonal interaction, except that he is a helmet, you take it with you on your head and you can manipulate the computer through your mind.

Pay attention, where the money is.

The attention economy is a subversive field, where attention is paid and money is there. A lot of people are watching emails every day, spending a lot of time on emails, and it takes up our time. So some people say that you should be able to get the money when you read the email, because you are taking the time. If you have to pay for reading emails, is it more money to read ads? Now the advertising mode is to spend money on advertising companies, why not go to spend money directly on your users, so that he can see the ads to get money? So we can see where the person's attention is, and then spend money to buy his attention and let him see our ads. This person can affect other people, the influential person should give more money.

A new business model is that we should have the right to be the media and advertise on our own to make money. For example, some of the blog below will put an ad, it looks cool, not like an advertisement, and bloggers can get money. In addition, people should be able to make money by making their own ads. A consumer directly involved in the production of advertising, direct advertising, and then through their own social media into a social advertising. This has completely overturned the advertising industry.

Long distance image and video technology

Remote images are also a disruptive area, such as teleconferencing and telemedicine. Oculus is a virtual reality company that Facebook has just acquired, and I've tried their product, it feels so good, it's a full immersion experience, very real. Facebook spent 1 billion of dollars to buy the company.

In addition, there are various screens, including a collapsible screen. The future of the screen, not only hard piece, we can even turn the screen as a book, you can flip, you can fold, the contents of the variable. There are also some display without screens, such as holograms. Holographic technology is not perfect now, but it may also be subversive to us in the future. We are now not reading people, but reading screen people. There are all kinds of logic in the screen.

The big upside of 3D printing is that what you used to think about hardware will become software in the future. 3D printed things is actually a drawing, can be changed can be transferred, modified, is the data formation. So this is just like the various internet devices we're talking about, it's also chip, and Americans have a desire to use 3D printing technology to return manufacturing back to the US, but there is also a saying that China is now the leader of 3D printing.

Artificial intelligence is the wisdom to buy

Apple's Siri is artificial intelligence, and you can talk to it. But most of the AI we see is not that cool, it runs in the background. It can deal with X-rays, deal with legal evidence, flight problems, and so on. Now that the progress of the graphics processing chip improves the machine learning ability, there are some machines that can understand your photos, tell you what these photos are about, and you can have interactive conversations with you and are still in the lab stage.

Artificial intelligence is a service that you can pay to buy. A company that uses artificial intelligence to start a business needs to apply artificial intelligence to a particular field to increase intelligence. For example, driverless cars, in fact, is the wisdom of artificial intelligence in the car. Its emergence will affect the traffic status, the impact of such industries and the driver industry. The real revolution is that these cars will become your new office in the future, and you will receive more data in your car than you would receive in your office.

Electronic money is an exchange

Money is important, but money is now an exchange. All areas of communication of the same nature, such as sharing, cooperation, tracking, broadcasting, elaboration, or recognition, have the nature of communication. There is an encrypted currency called Bitcoin, meaning that this communication is also encrypted. Bitcoin is an encrypted currency, but not an invisible currency. The transactions generated by electronic money, like communication, can be tracked, in fact, is an exchange. So the real subversion of Bitcoin is a sense of communication that produces the same value as money.

The revolution of stock-raising

The United States now has 450 platforms, producing some very successful projects, and it is now a big business and a lot of money is pouring into the field. Many people use this website not to raise money, but to use it to do market research and see if their business plans will be popular. The recent stock-raising stakes have been recognised as a very big revolution.

If we go through the 1980, tell the people at that time, you will have Wikipedia after 30, and there will be all sorts of cool technologies that no one will believe. Looking forward to the next 20 years, is also today we can hardly imagine. The only thing I know is that the greatest products of the 20 have not been invented yet and you, as entrepreneurs, are going to invent them! Although the High-tech companies such as Google are so powerful and successful, I just want to say that it is not too late for you to start now, and what has happened is nothing at all.