Dutch bank financial products are referred to "0 return" probability 96%

Every reporter Chen Ke from Shanghai with the revival of structural product release, The nightmare of "0 returns" comes back? A few days ago, the Dutch bank on sale of a "Rise and Fall win series" exchange rate linked to the first phase of structured investment products caused controversy-southwest finance and Wealth Trust and Financial Research Institute of the results show that the product 0 of the probability of achieving 96%; but a reverse assessment by ABN AMRO　　The probability of the product being guaranteed above is 62.08%, and the average maturity of the product is 101.47%.　　How should investors judge the two different views of the same product?　　Earnings range is plus or minus 0.08 ABN Amro's products were issued earlier this month, with an investment currency of AUD, for a period of 6 months, with an expected maximum annual yield of 9%. Under the terms of its income, the AUD/USD falls at the [opening exchange rate of 0.04, the opening exchange rate +0.04] during the investment period, and the investor obtains 4.5% of the actual income; falls at [opening exchange rate-0.08, opening exchange rate +0.08] interval, the actual gain is 1.5%　　, investors will end up with a 0 gain if the exchange rate breaks through the investment period. The above products achieve the highest return on the premise that the AUD against the United States dollar in six months to maintain stability, however, according to the Southwest Financial Trust and Financial Research Institute of the calculation, even if the volatility set to 0.005 of the most optimistic estimate, 0 of the probability of return 80%; If the volatility is set at 0.0136, the probability of 0 returns will be as high as 96.　　%！　　ABN AMRO did not evaluate the method, but according to the bank's own assessment, after extracting a total of 2,065 observations from the past 8.5 years (January 1, 2001 ~2009 May 28), the probability of obtaining the above-guaranteed yield was 62.08%. Pricing depends on institutional judgment in fact, whether the pricing of products is scientific is an important factor to determine the level of structural product income. Pricing is unreasonable (asset price fluctuation interval is too narrow), resulting in the linked assets easily break through the range, is 2008 a lot of 0 income products "common problems."　　And the above products will be achieved by the terms of the AUD/USD exchange rate of positive and negative 0.08 of the "narrow" range, is leading to market concerns about the main reason for the product. Industry insiders believe that the pricing of products is reasonable, depending on the research and development agencies on the underlying assets of the future trend of judgment. In response to the controversy over the product, ABN Amro said to the daily economic news, "we anticipate that the AUD/USD exchange rate is expected to be ' narrow-band ' for the next 6 months."　　"It also means that even if the addition and subtraction of 800 points seems narrower, it is still a reasonable shock zone if the asset movement matches its judgment." "The price of structured products is scientific and small investors are hard to grasp." "Before making an investment decision, investors have to judge by experience whether the product preset interval matches their own judgment," said Wang Zhanwu, a financial product center at the Institute of Finance at the Academy of Social Sciences.Agreeing to buy means endorsing pricing ".　　Lengthen the term to buy better options for pricing problems, a senior foreign bank product design expert on the daily economic news, said that the price of products not only depends on the bank's research and development capabilities, but also depends on the financial strength of research and development institutions, capital, can be in the international market to buy better options. "In volatile markets, structured product investment strategies have many market opportunities, but different underlying assets may face different situations."　　"The experts told the Daily Economic news," in the current market conditions, the renminbi interest rate is very low, in order to pursue better returns, research and development institutions for the full use of funds, will be as far as possible to develop long-term products, to buy better options (high probability of implementation). In his view, the uncontrolled risk of currency fluctuations could be greater over a longer period than interest rates, commodities, gold and equities.　　"Last year we had several exchange rate linked products to achieve the expected revenue, the market response is good, but this year we did not push similar products, mainly for the above considerations." In addition, investors need to pay attention to the details of the investment currency to protect their rights and interests. As many domestic banks issue embedded options for structured products from offshore investment banks, when the investment involves currency exchange, if the foreign currency to the renminbi significantly devalued, even if the product capital preservation, in essence investors still face losses.