Electric dealers need to stop to reflect on the golden decade

June 28 in the domestic electric business district was sealed as "yellow pharmacist", "Ashes class character" Huang Jo, since June 2011 announced no longer as Dangdang chief operating officer, claiming to be from the electric industry "retreat".

Since then Huang Jo did not go out of the electric circle, in addition to the investment group in Warburg Pincus as a consultant, responsible for the monitoring of some of the electricity business investment projects, this May Huang Jo also borrowed a new book "I look at the electricity quotient" "comeback", he said that the electric business through the golden decade, need to stop to reflect on, this includes how to work less flicker, how closer to the nature of commercial and retail.

Reflection One: Core value is more important than scale

Huang Jo believes that in the 10 years of development, the market has too much emphasis on marketing, too much emphasis on public relations marketing, the entire industry biased in the impetuous. For 10 years, most electric dealers, especially the leaders, put too much emphasis on scale, thinking that traffic is everything, and only the price war, which leads them to not build up the core value of the scale, such as in the service, technology accumulation, and the competitor is difficult to imitate and beyond.

For instance, an American friend of Huang Jo bought a Kindle e-reader on Amazon last year, and after half a year saw a black spot in the bottom of the screen, sent it to Amazon after being photographed, and Amazon sent back a new Kindle after confirming it, Huang Jo that this was the essence of the retailer's service.

Taobao or Beijing east, the basic is relying on the scale of the push to establish the threshold, which does not mean that its leading position unshakable.

Of course, "only the scale" mainly stems from the promotion of VC, which is leading to the Chinese electric industry impetuous important reason.

First of all, the electronic business is VC to do upfront investment, the founder is not to take their own money to do business, burning money more easily; second, because the industry is VC-led, VC attitude to the enterprise such as Pig, and the founder of enterprises such as raising children, which led to investors to promote enterprise fast horse In addition, the past 10 years or even 20 years have been the fastest-growing period in China's economy, especially in the retail sector, where companies are less focused on business-related issues, like the snowballing profits of Chinese retail companies addicted to commercial property, Online retailing companies believe that scaling up is the best business: In 2007 Taobao won a user only 15 pieces of the cost, up to now a new user on the value of 80-100 yuan.

These factors make domestic electric dealers face "puffiness" problem, looks big, but in fact the interior is not strong.

Rethinking the second: the capital ushered in the redemption period to change the power suppliers

Of course, "puffiness" will also usher in a new look on the day, Huang Jo think can trigger changes in China's electricity market factors, including investment institutions after the redemption period of demand, and the gradual disappearance of the Internet population dividend.

A decade has developed many of the early investment in the capital agencies to the redemption period, the book on the virtual high need to be put down through actual investment. Generally speaking the investment time of the capital in the year 8-10, after this deadline, the LP will tell the company to put my investment and return to me, when you value 20 million yuan I invested 5 million, when you increase the value to 200 million yuan, my rate of return looks impressive, but in fact, you can not meet my demand for redemption. But I have a few electric dealers in my hands, and I'm more than willing to take a few more of today's profits, and I'm not willing to gamble on the bigger gains that are hard to come by after three years.

This factor is particularly true of the five or six-year-old electric-business companies that have been in existence since the establishment and financing, so many companies from the industry started last year to look for new investors to inject old stocks with a lower half or even more than the previous round, allowing early entrants to exit.

In addition, Huang Jo also saw the gradual disappearance of the Internet demographic dividend trend. Over the past decade, online shoppers have maintained a rapid growth rate of 50%-70% a year, and the average consumption of each user rose sharply, from 2003 Taobao users an average annual cost of 280 yuan, growth to 2012 annual average of nearly 3000 yuan. This dividend comes from the dual expansion and promotion of the population and the consumption capacity of the net-buying people and the population, but it cannot be expected that the speed will continue, after all, from 200-3000 and from 3000 to 30,000 is not the same thing.

Reflection three: Ali, Jingdong must be listed before next year

Based on the above summed up the development of the electric business Decade, as well as VC and the market to the industry variables, Huang Jo from the investor point of view, that Ali and Jingdong must be completed by 2014 before the independent listing, or even the best time to market may appear in the fourth quarter of this year.

The most important reason is the cyclical nature of the capital market, after a long period of capital resurgence, the current capital market has begun to heat up, which provides a good opportunity for the listing of Ali and Beijing east.

Second, the two companies ' leading position in the market is still temporary and will be challenged by more factors in the future, so it is the best time for them to maximize their interests in this year's timing node.

Huang Jo that Taobao's future challenges come from three aspects: first, consumers move quickly to the mobile end, the speed of transfer far more than the service provider transformation speed, and Taobao performance on the mobile platform is only a PC-side advantage of the replication or transplant, not entirely with the mobile thinking to change the product shape. Second, more and more traditional enterprises have gone "to the line development, want to do the electrical business" hesitation period, formally entered how to do, how to implement the stage, their real entry will bring pressure on Taobao, although the traditional enterprises still have their own disadvantages, but they are undoubtedly the main force in the retail industry. " The third Taobao platform model to achieve the ultimate, but in the retail field platform is only the initial stage of the form, the platform is unable to provide users with a more constant service standards, poor control of goods, and promote a meaningless price war.

A simple example, Taobao aggregation of a large number of book sellers, of which more than 20 sellers are selling Huang Jo "I look at the electricity quotient", and for the standardization of such goods, the only factor to attract users is the price.

This also embodies the advantages of the trading model, such as Jingdong's proprietary business emphasis on the control of goods, sales of goods have their own estimates and judgments, set up a stable service system.

But Jingdong also faces a profit-and-money threat. In Huang Jo view, Jing Dong has not been profitable for ten years, in order to pursue the profit boldly try to department stores, in the department store at the same time and constantly emphasize the construction of pop open platform. "Jing Dong should be one thing, at the same time do these two things, I think it is difficult to handle well, worse is so many users do not know what your attributes are, because some things are some of your business, some of the merchandise warehousing some goods and not subject to the Beijing-East control.

If Huang doesn't think that the idea of Jingdong is in line with Amazon, because in the category expansion Amazon follows from one category to many to a large number of rhythms, rather than jingdong from one to the mass; on the open platform, Amazon insists that third-party businesses use their cloud computing, logistics and distribution systems to reduce operating costs. The Beijing-east platform is more to the user and traffic in exchange for revenue.

Reflection on four: traditional enterprises can not be overlooked mobile end and new players

Huang Jo, who has not been a senior executive in the electric Business enterprise, is most worried about watching a gang of electric traders arguing every day, but consumers are drifting away from them. He's referring to the following, especially after the 95 migration to the mobile end, but Taobao, Jingdong and other electric companies are still in the traditional PC thinking to create mobile products, they do not fully research and call the characteristics of mobile devices such as smartphones, the main work is still stuck in the changes in the display of goods, payment and other aspects of the improvement.

Huang Jo firmly believe that mobile end will appear new big players, like micro-letter, taxi app These mobile applications, vividly play the phone's rocking sense, positioning, shooting, scanning characteristics, very convenient and cool.

And the traditional retail business, once known as the "Sleeping Lion", is fully awakened, and many consumers may have to return if they can move forward on operations and services.

Of course, traditional companies still run into a wall, Huang Jo, the root cause is that they as "army" still do not understand the "electrical and commercial Air Force" of the rules and rules.

The advice given by the Huang Jo is that the traditional enterprises should take the electric business as a pure investment behavior, let go of it; second, insist on building a new team, a person do not use the traditional enterprise itself; Moreover, do not always talk about support and optimization, as a piece of white paper to do, rather than from the beginning to say that there are advantages, What resources the group can provide online.

Reflection on the five: electric business to deep, MO fooled

If Huang still hates the price war in the electric Business circle, it is a verbal war in essence. "I smell the industry's worst taste, is the electric business between the ugly competition, full of negative energy, we used to use PR war to attack each other, in fact, each other is not so glorious." Today you said I have a fake, tomorrow I said you cheat on the price of users, as the company's listing approaching, this situation may be intensified. ”

Successful large enterprises, should be more focused on their own positive energy transmission, to be rational, to deep, not to be fooled.

Take Ali and Jingdong, even if both are in the intense preparation for the listing, there's always the argument for more financing, but two companies are different from models, and how the results ultimately depend on how the capital markets evaluate your model and competitiveness, not just your size, or your performance in a verbal war.

Over the past decade the electric dealers have played a game of scale, but scale is only a measure of success only, in the global, online scale of the winners will only be very few, outside Wal-Mart Watson, Ikea are commercially great success of the business, even if their overall size is only 1% or even 1 per thousand of Wal-Mart.

Attached Huang Jo Introduction:

China chain and E-commerce leader of the Ashes, the lake called "Yellow Pharmacist", Cross-border veterans. Original Dangdang chief operating officer, CAT founder general manager.

Yellow if have nearly 30 years of business experience, successive lotus, million long, Tianjin, the world and other enterprises general manager, executive vice president and other grades, 2007 joined Taobao, as the Operation Center Vice President, and is responsible for the formation of Taobao Mall. After joining Dangdang to serve as chief operating officer, is currently the United States Warburg investment Group investment advisers.