Experts comment on the economic situation: it is difficult to reach the same rate this year

Xinhua Beijing, January 22 (Yang) China National Bureau of Statistics 21st held the first New Year's news conference, to all concerned about the Chinese economy, handed over a transcript. Initial accounting, gross domestic product was 33.5353 trillion in 2009, up 8.7% per cent from the previous year.　　In the eyes of experts, this growth means the successful use of the package, while looking ahead to the 2010 Chinese economy, experts are more consistent focus on inflation trends. Looking back last year: The overall task of economic development has been completed last year, China's GDP grew by about 4.91 trillion yuan, according to Li, director of China and the World Economic Research Center at Tsinghua University.　　He said the 8.7% economic growth was conclusive evidence that the overall task of economic development had been completed last year and that growth exceeded expectations, and that China could overtake Japan as the second largest economy, given the country's continued economic recovery. Chunsheng, a professor at the Changjiang Business School, said the economic growth of the 2009 had a remarkable feature. First, investment has made a great contribution to the pull. As a result of the financial crisis, the contribution rate of investment to economic growth in 2009 was the highest in the year. Second, a better phenomenon is that consumption growth contributes relatively weakly to the economy, and a series of domestic measures, such as car purchase taxes, were adopted in 2009 under the national stimulus plan. The contribution of consumption to economic growth in 2009 has increased compared with previous years. Therefore, to stimulate domestic demand, in 2009 achieved a certain degree of success. In combination with the above characteristics, chunsheng that the pressure to adjust the structure in 2010 has become more and more large, overcapacity phenomenon is very common.　　Chunsheng expects economic growth to be close to 10% per cent in 2010. Tan Yaling, China's chief economist at MG Financial Group and director of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, said that economic growth of 8% was achieved, which is the success of policy response, is a short-term achievement, but behind the huge risks. To achieve the 8 goal, we pay the price, we repeat the past mistakes and development ideas. She said that China's economic regulation and development needs to adjust, grasp the concept and perspective, learn to own their own problems, this kind of decompression, international public opinion will be more thorough understanding of us; This can be pressurized, can make us sober face many problems, effectively solve many problems.　　A simple economic index reflects the national strategy and State interests, economic indicators should be long-term short-term collocation, and can not simply talk about indicators, but its short term, should be long-term, forward-looking and preventive assessment, change our way of thinking and disposal methods, increase the sense of crisis, urgency and efficiency. Outlook 2010: More stable economic development Ding Yifan, an expert at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with Beijing that China's GDP growth was expected to grow between 8.5% and 10% in 2010. He said the Chinese government still has half of its stimulus spending in hand, so China has the possibility of expanding its public finances and laying the foundation for a more stable Chinese economySet the foundation.　　All this suggests that 2010 should be a stable and easy year for economic development in 2009. New, director of macroeconomic research at the Ministry of Economic forecasting at China's National Information Center, said that while GDP grew by 10.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009, it did not bode well for a two-digit growth in 2010 or even a 10% per cent target. His forecast for 2010 GDP growth was just over 8.5%. Overall, he said, growth was better than expected last year, policy effects and major consumer hotspots were better than expected, combined with a lower base in the fourth quarter of 08, which led to a 10.7% per cent growth in the fourth quarter of 09.　　With the reduction of policy effect and the fine-tuning of monetary policy, the economic growth rate will be moderately returned to the reasonable growth level. Fungko, deputy director of Peking University's Economic Research Institute, said that GDP growth in 2010 was not necessarily two digits, and 10.7% growth in the fourth quarter of last year was the result of a significant increase in investment at the beginning of the period, and the central government is now looking to tighten regulation, which is expected to reach its peak in the　　The annual growth rate is 7.5% to 8.3%. Inflationary expectations: "timing" of interest rate hikes New points out that the Bureau of Statistics released the December 2009 CPI increase of 1.9%, higher than its 1.2% forecast. He explained that the CPI was higher than expected because the winter weather was too cold, the price of vegetables and food caused more than expected rise, so that the entire December CPI higher than expected.　　But with the gradual return of prices, New that the CPI will remain around 3% in 2010. Ding Yifan said China's inflation this year should be a trend of gradual rise, but not an uncontrollable trend, but should be wary of imported inflation factors. Ding Yifan that China does not have a shortage of inventory factors, so there is no shortage of inflation.　　However, he said that, for example, oil, coal, China are import powers, the rise of international commodities will eventually be reflected in the CPI, imported inflation factors are difficult to control and need to be vigilant.　　Fungko forecasts that CPI growth of around 6% in 2010, one or two times in the first half to adjust the deposit reserve ratio of space, and interest rates will depend on the economic situation in the third quarter of this year. Professor Li Yiping, a professor of economics at Renmin University, said the inflation trend for the year 2010 was clear and the first half was expected to raise interest rates. Chunsheng said that overcapacity and the price of means of production could hedge against inflationary pressures from faster credit growth.　　Chunsheng predicts that the 2010 CPI growth rate could break 3% per 5%, but not yet hyperinflation. Yixianrong, a researcher at the Institute of Finance at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said there was no inflation forecast and that inflation would be under 4% per cent in 2010. At the same time the forecast for the current market forecasts, the central bank will raise interest rates, Yixianrong saidAlmost impossible.