Experts say real estate brakes are good for China's long-term economic development

Xinhua Beijing, April 29 (reporter Mashucun Kang Tingting) April, China's continued warming of the real estate market because of the government's real estate New Deal and "weather."　　Experts believe that the introduction of the real estate New deal, not only regulate the real estate market itself, but also regulate the Chinese economy. Prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China have risen since last year's year-on-year increase from negative to positive. March this year, the rise of 11.7%, more than January 2008 11.3% of the magnitude, a record high.　　Soaring house prices have also raised concerns from experts and insiders about the risks to the economy from China's asset bubbles.　　Zuo, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, said the sharp rise in real estate prices could be a major economic destabilizing factor this year, and that the housing bubble could not destroy the Chinese economy.　　Affected by the new real estate policy, China's first-tier city turnover has fallen sharply, some of the property also began to discount sales.　　Zuo that the Chinese government recently introduced a series of policies to curb the excessive price of housing prices have a positive impact on the smooth, but the policy can achieve the desired effect, but also depends on enforcement efforts. Zhang Hanya, a researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission's Investment Institute, expressed the same cautious attitude. In his view, the key is how the local government to develop appropriate measures, and strictly enforced.　　But he also said the strength of the policy to curb speculation would curb investment to some extent. The relationship between real estate and China's economy is very close, and the market has described the complex relationship between "real estate kidnapping and China's economy". The contribution rate of investment to GDP in the first quarter was 57.9%, and real estate investment accounted for 18% of the total investment of fixed assets in the whole society.　　In addition, real estate directly led 19 industries, indirectly led to 42 industries. This has raised fears that the new deal will affect China's economic growth and that China's recent stock market response has been particularly strong. After a series of New Deal announced, real estate, banks, energy stocks continue to weaken, drag the market.　　Analysts said one reason for the fall was the fear that the new deal would dampen consumption and China's demand for energy, affecting China's growth. Zuo does not recognise such concerns in the market.　　She believes that the development of affordable housing, small and medium-sized housing, the same as the transformation of shanty towns can pull the demand for cement, steel, upstream industry will not have a impact, not to say that the lack of high-end commercial housing these needs disappeared. In addition, she said, the rapid growth in the economy will only increase inflation expectations and increase the pressure on the government to manage inflation. At the same time, the current policy is also good for the banking sector, the Japanese property bubble and the lessons of the subprime crisis that this is the right time to control bank lending.　　This is not only conducive to the healthy development of real estate, but also conducive to the sustainable development of banks. Zhang Hanya that after the new deal is released, whether the land is not sold or house sales will have a certain impact on local economic development. "If the government is too aggressive, it will have a very negative impact on the Chinese economy," he said.　　"he said. Gangming, a researcher at Tsinghua University, China and the World Economic Research CenterThe current policy of repression has a huge impact on economic growth this year. "This is the real reason the government has been reluctant to crack down on real estate," he said. Economic growth in the first quarter was largely driven by real estate, not a real economic recovery. "" The suppression of policies can help the government to squeeze out the false bubble, so the government to ' not afraid of pain ', in order to reduce the cost of a little GDP, to change the overall economic coordinated healthy development.　　"he said. China's gross domestic product rose 11.9% in the first quarter. Premier Wen Jiabao, in his report on the government's work this year, said that China's economic growth target for the year was 8%, and stressed the "good word".　　Experts say the new deal is part of the Government's regulatory economic development. Zhang Hanya said that China's foreign trade this year is not a big risk, investment and consumption will remain stable, if not a big accident, the annual growth of about 10% is not a problem.