Four lines of bad debts ten years ago 3 trillion bubbles hide GDP

Four lines of bad debts ten years ago, the four major asset management companies transformed, trillion of non-performing assets ledger, the central government's "condominium account" model into the "left pocket out of the right pocket", the state to write off this bad debts, will be counted 2009 10% of GDP, the people of the whole country into a real bill. June 28, China Xinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xinda shares") in Beijing convened the founding of the Conference, opened four asset management companies (hereinafter called AMC) the transformation of the prologue.　　Back then, the country issued 270 billion special national debt into four lines, while peeling off 1.4 trillion yuan of non-performing assets into AMC, now four lines are listed, AMC also began to transform, 1.4 trillion of non-performing assets write-off has become hidden in the GDP of the huge bubble.　　Four rows of bad debt games 1999, the Ministry of Finance, respectively, to provide 10 billion yuan as capital, the establishment of AMC, the central bank to AMC to provide more than 573.9 billion yuan, AMC a total of four lines of financial bonds issued 820 billion yuan, roughly 1:1 to buy four rows total 1.4 trillion yuan of non-performing assets. At the CBRC's official website, the deadline for the latest data on AMC is the first quarter of 2006 (see right-hand chart), which exposes the secrets of AMC's handling of non-performing assets. According to this data, the original value of AMC purchase loan should be 1.26 trillion yuan (866.34 billion yuan/68.61%); If the non-performing loans are disposed of, the cash recovery may reach 263.169 billion yuan (180.56 billion yuan/68.61%), plus Non-cash Asset recovery may reach 304.92 billion yuan. All of the above inferences are based on cash recoveries and asset recovery rates unchanged.　　However, the more difficult it is to dispose of the remaining loans, the two recovery rates will decline. At the end of June 2006, Sun Xiaoxia, deputy director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that AMC had disposed of 1.17 trillion yuan of non-performing assets, accounting for 83.5% of total acceptance, and about 187 billion yuan in cash, with a recovery of 16%.　　At the end of that year, AMC announced the completion of the disposal of non-performing assets, according to the public data, AMC total disposal of non-performing assets of 1.21 trillion yuan, accumulated cash recovery of 211 billion yuan, than the state's approved target over-enrolment 28.6 billion yuan.　　Return to the CBRC report, cash recovery of 263.169 billion yuan, asset recovery of 304.92 billion yuan, if the number of non-performing assets with the mainstream voice of 1.4 trillion yuan, then AMC toil for more than 10 years, now non-performing assets still have more than 1 trillion yuan (1.4 trillion yuan-304.92 billion yuan).　　According to the 2.25% annual interest rate on refinancing and financial bonds, AMC pays the central bank and four bank interest rates of more than 30 billion yuan each year (1.4 trillion yuan x2.25%=315 billion, ignoring the issue of issuing a lot of debt), and 10 years to recover all the cash to pay interest is not enough. AMC bad assets Disposal cost is high, recovery efficiency is low, in the meantime the Audit Commission launched auditing Storm, the CBRC also put forward severe rectification opinions. More than 10 years, AMC is bound to add additional costsSome, such as the media disclosed 7% of non-performing assets disposal fee rate, the current bad debts may be more than 1 trillion yuan.　　So, starting with AMC receiving bad assets, this is a digital game, called a "policy acquisition".　　The economic bubbles in AMC with the establishment of Xinda shares, the transformation of "condominium account" has opened the big curtain of AMC transformation. At present, the letter Tatsu assets and non-performing assets of more than 200 billion yuan, is basically unable to recover the real "bad debts."　　But in the transformation plan, it and the Ministry of Finance altogether set up "the condominium account", the more than 200 billion yuan huge ledger loss is stripped to this account. With the introduction of a "condominium account", the Treasury does not have to pay cash to resolve the losses immediately. For the reimbursement of "condominium accounts", the Treasury will initially set the duration of the account to 10 years.　　In this way, Fidelity avoids the fate of being dissolved, and the Treasury also leaves the pressure for future purchases. AMC owes 820 billion dollars to four lines, and there are places to go. BOC announced in late June that it received a notice from the Treasury, the holding of Oriental bonds 10 years after the expiry of the interest rate unchanged. Last September, CCB's 247 billion-dollar bond holdings of fidelity assets was first postponed for 10 years. In addition, AMC owes the central bank 573.9 billion yuan loan also will cease ledger. There is no shareholder equity in the balance sheet of the central bank, and the balance of assets and liabilities is roughly balanced; each additional AMC claim on the left, the right side of which is printed a note corresponding to it, thereby injecting a liquidity; on the left, AMC cancels a base currency on the right side of each repayment of a loan　　Now AMC Ledger, is the left side no longer repay the loan, the right also no longer reduce money, liquidity stay in the field of circulation, may lead to the whole society of inflation, all the people for AMC Bill. In fact, as early as 2006, Xinda, Oriental two big asset management companies became the first batch of non-performing asset securitization pilot enterprises, will be collector package issued CDO, CDs class of subordinated debt. But after the 2008 financial crisis, the CBRC suspended the securitization of non-performing assets. After 2009 years of nearly 10 trillion yuan of new credit madness, a new round of non-performing assets emerging, the solution can only be directly to the capital market surgery. 2009 is the year of Credit leap, and 2010 is necessarily the year of financing.　　If the announced plans can be successfully achieved, the total size of banking financing this year or exceed 600 billion yuan. Whether the bad assets into the "condominium account", or bond extension, Central bank Ledger, is the debt "left pocket for the right pocket", in the country's balance sheet under different subjects to adjust. But the debt is the debt, the enterprise write-off relies on the profit, the financial write-off must rely on the tax, the central bank write-off must depend on the inflation.　　Now these bad debts are hidden in the bank benefits, dwelling in the GDP benefits, they are really the Chinese economy bubble. 3 trillion the cost of reform, equivalent to One-tenth of GDP, is actually the cost of the entire economic reform.　China is a gradual reform, the resistance to reform, adopt a roundabout, inclusive way, precipitated as the cost of reform.　At the beginning of the reform, the cost was paid directly by the central government during the current period, but later, as the state had limited financial resources, the Bank began to act as a "second finance", gradually forming a huge bad debt. A survey by the Central Bank Research Bureau in the second half of 2002 showed that 80.7% of the non-performing assets of state-owned banks were caused by the transfer of gradual reform costs, including red-headed, corporate policy plan Merge all, poor state-owned enterprises and improper intervention by local governments.　　Banks will be financially restructured when the bank's bad debts accumulate to a certain extent and the central government tries to save them. The first form is that banks use their own profits to write off bad debts, this is an enterprise behavior.　　But in this way the write-off is only a very small part. The second form is for the state to use foreign exchange reserves to inject capital.　　If BOC and CCB use the ownership of the central government to offset the loss of 197 billion yuan loans, the two banks each received 22.5 billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange injection. The third form is that AMC issued 10-year central finance bonds of 820 billion yuan to four banks to buy bad assets.　　In April 2005, ICBC replaced the 246 billion-dollar non-performing assets into equivalent financial bonds, and assigned them to "condominium accounts" and entrusted them to the disposal of Huarong Asset management company. The fourth form is that AMC buys bad assets from banks through central bank refinancing or central bank bills.　　1999-2000, AMC uses 573.9 billion yuan to borrow the bank to acquire the bad assets of state-owned banks; in 2005 ICBC 459 billion-yuan suspect loans were replaced by book value as central bank bills, and then sold to AMC at the average bid price of 26.38% of the book value. Does the bank's financial reorganization pay for the reform cost? Only the first way is paid directly, because profits and taxes should belong to the Treasury.　　In three other ways, the cost of reform has been shifted again-the cost of reform, which has shifted to state-owned banks, has been restructured and transferred to central finance and central banks. Foreign exchange reserves directly injected into the bank, equivalent to the direct issuance of the same amount of renminbi. The third form, through the form of implicit guarantee, is still not a direct and one-time payment, but indirect and deferred payments by the central government.　　The fourth form is borne by the central bank, which actually ends up paying the bills by the general price rise.　　The need to be vigilant is that the cost of reform is being magnified and worsened while it is being shifted and deferred, which is a worse problem.　　In 2006, Chen Nohua, deputy director of the Southwestern Financial Research Center of China's southwest Finance Department, calculated that China's incremental reform costs were estimated at 2,397,938,000,000 yuan, a figure that did not include the cost of ABC's shareholding reform. ABC Stock system reform process, the Ministry of Finance and ABC set up a "condominium account", replacement of 815.6 billion yuan non-performing assets, the duration of 15 years. This is equivalent to the bank holds the Treasury's annual interest rate of 3.5% of the same bond, the Treasury pays 28.546 billion yuan a year, 15 a total of 428.19 billion yuan, even with the interest of 1,244,510,000,000 yuan, ABC changedThe cost of leather is more than 1 trillion yuan.　　Of course, interest is also the Treasury revenue from the Agricultural bank's profits. According to the Chen Nohua calculation, the current cost of China's reform: 3,213,538,000,000 Yuan.　　Plus the cost of interest paid to ABC by the Treasury will rise to $3,642,448,000,000. According to the Bureau of Statistics revised data, 2009 China's gross domestic product of 34.0507 trillion yuan, if the one-time write-off of these costs, only 30 trillion yuan a little more, 10% is gone.　　Can China's GDP account for 10% of the provision? (Liu Dong "Securities Market Weekly")