Goldman Sachs: March import and export growth will rebound

Goldman Sachs released its report March 10 that the February trade deficit was only temporarily disrupted by the Spring Festival factors.　　As the impact of the spring festival fades, combined with a relatively low base last year, the growth in imports and exports is expected to increase in March. In February, China's exports fell from 37.7% in January to 2.4%, while Goldman Sachs forecast 5%. The implied quarterly year-on-year increase fell from 74% in January to 40.7%, with imports falling from 51% in January to 19.4% and Goldman Sachs predicting 10%.　　The year-on-year increase in the quarter was reduced from 101.8% in January to 58.3%.　　February trade deficit of 7.3 billion U.S. dollars, and January trading surplus of 6.5 billion U.S. dollars, after the February surplus of 300 million U.S. dollars, less than the January 1.7 billion dollars. The report pointed out that the Spring Festival effect is the February import and export data surface weakness of the main reason. The February data should be analysed to take into account the exceptionally strong performance of trade figures for January.　　The December combined data showed strong growth in trade with the chain. Goldman Sachs said the trade deficit was only temporarily disrupted by the Spring Festival factors. In the weeks after the Lunar New Year holiday, exports have been more affected than imports, as exporters are more inclined to extend their actual holidays. As a result, net exports tend to show a high trend in the year ahead.　　In 2010, due to the late spring festival time, March, the only trade deficit, 7.4 billion U.S. dollars, and this year's February deficit is almost the same, but after the resumption of the surplus and rising to 27 billion U.S. dollars in October level. Goldman Sachs also noted that cyclical factors could push up the level of net exports in the next few months. As domestic policy continues to tighten, domestic demand growth is likely to slow further, which could lead to a slowdown in China's import growth and a widening surplus.