Hepalink 148 Yuan can not bear the heavy and internal and internal and internal invasion is emerging

With the 2008 "Baxter event" to take off, in the Heparin API has the technical advantage of the Sea (002399.SZ), successfully staged the share market the most expensive IPO. However, the first price of 148 yuan, or the future of the price of Highbury will be difficult to reach the peak again.　　and its $2.25 earnings per share in 2009 is likely to be the second-highest point of exceptional growth in particular events. Hepalink's "internal and internal turmoil" is surfacing. On the one hand, Hepalink stressed that access to the U.S. market is the only qualification, has confirmed that the U.S. FDA certification enterprises in more than one home. At the same time, Hepalink to meet the capacity of the small intestine, such as pigs and other upstream supply of the ability to protect the industry is also questioned; on the other hand, our correspondent learned that the international anticoagulant treatment revolutionary changes are coming, hepalink downstream of the heparin-like antithrombotic drugs will face a serious impact of replacement drugs.　　In the context of a growing number of new drugs to replace heparin, the future market space of Hepalink heparin will be squeezed, and the uncertainty of the high performance growth highlighted by the IPO is increasing.　　The advantage of the alternative drugs is obvious that the technical superiority of Hai-puri mainly concentrates on the heparin drug. According to a Harvard Medical School, the development of international anticoagulants has gone through several stages: the--1950 of warfarin, which was found in 1916 by the time of the non oral heparin, showed a smaller--1990 of low molecular weight heparin (LMWH)--2002, an annual direct thrombin inhibitor (recombinant Hirudin,　　Bivalirudin and Argatroban Argatroban), selective XA factor inhibitors (sulfonic sodium, etc.). Common heparin was extracted from the small intestine and bovine lungs of pigs and was the main anticoagulant drug for a long time. Low molecular weight heparin is produced by the common heparin (Mr in 5000-30000). Heparin may be used more in acute stage therapy for important thrombotic diseases and in the prevention of thrombosis in a very critical state of emergency.　　Its advantage is that the curative effect is more accurate, the efficiency is more rapid. Disadvantage is the need to detect, need to use APTT regularly to monitor. This periodic monitoring requirement may be inconvenient for the clinic.　　This inconvenience in use may result in increased clinical bleeding complications.　　But the second kind of low molecular weight heparin, its advantage is to use more convenient, haemorrhage complication is less than common heparin, but still need to examine theoretically also. However, because heparin drugs can cause thrombocytopenia (HIT) and other side effects, and the use of inconvenient, more effective, less side effects of oral anticoagulant drugs are emerging.　　Among them, Bivalirudin (Bivalirudin) has been approved for the replacement of heparin in percutaneous coronary interventional therapy. Bayer Healthcare Limited and Johnson Inc. jointly developed the world's first oral direct XA factor inhibitor, which was approved in Canada and the European Union on September 15, 2008 and October 1 respectively.　　June 18, 2009, Shaaban officially sold in China. The appearance of the drug is defined by the medical profession, which isCan bring an innovation in the field of anticoagulants and create a new era of anticoagulant therapy.　　Livasa classes need only oral, fixed doses, the effect can be predicted, without monitoring, with food and drug interaction small, clinical use is quite convenient.　　Beijing Tiantan Hospital deputy Dean Wang Yong and other professors have said before, although there is a distinction between the actual use of each type of anticoagulant and the range of detection and clinical applicability, these multiple anticoagulants do not replace an anticoagulant with an additional anticoagulant, but the application of the course will lead to a revolution in anticoagulation therapy. Mr. Wang has previously said that the use of anticoagulants in the past requires the hospital to set up anticoagulation clinics, patients with drug monitoring. And the application of the sand-cutting course will no longer require the establishment of anticoagulation clinics.　　Patients can turn anticoagulant therapy into a routine treatment like aspirin and other antiplatelet agents.　　Xu Jundong, a professor at Peking University's People's Hospital, predicts that Anticoagulation will step into the post-warfarin era from the warfarin era: a short-term medication that needs to be injected and regularly monitored, with a dose that is difficult to grasp, to be converted into a long-term treatment that is oral, without monitoring and dose-fixing, with a more In addition, Shaaban and other new drugs than traditional heparin, in the United States and the United Kingdom each patient can save the cost of 139.41 U.S. dollars (the United States) and 11.76 pounds (UK).　　If the cost of nursing is considered, the cost savings for each patient with a total knee replacement using the course may rise to 149.91 US dollars (United States) and 36.76 pounds (UK).　　In China, the reporter from Guangzhou, Shanghai and Other place of a number of pharmaceutical companies to understand that only six months in China listed Shaaban and other new drugs are more popular than hospitals and patients, sales than other antithrombotic drugs increased by more than 20%.　　The market share of heparin is shrinking. In fact, with more new drugs on the market, although in our country currently heparin drugs occupy the largest share of antithrombotic drugs, but some heparin drug market share has been shrinking trend. Reporter obtained the "2009-2010 China market Research and analysis of antithrombotic drugs," disclosed that China's antithrombotic drugs varieties of hospital market share ranking, antiplatelet coagulation drug clopidogrel sulfate market share of rapid growth, since 2004, the market share are ranked first, 2008 's market share reached 26.31%. The market share of sodium Ozagrel also grew steadily, at 15.81% in 2008, the third.　　With the steady growth in the market of low molecular weight heparin sodium, the market share of heparin is shrinking, and 2008 's share is only 1.56%, ranked tenth. In terms of market growth, the growth of clopidogrel is most pronounced, with an annual growth rate of more than 60% per cent. The growth rate of low-molecular-weight heparin is decreasing year by year.　　Heparin sodium growth fluctuated, after 2002 years of rapid growth, in 2003 into negative growth, 2004, the growth of 5.06% slowly rebounded, 2005 again negative growth, to 2008, the market growth rate of 1.56%. In the domestic cityfield, antiplatelet coagulation drugs have replaced traditional heparin drugs, seizing the first of the market for antithrombotic drugs. "As more new drugs such as Shaaban are developed, the space for heparin is bound to be squeezed when anticoagulation is changed from hospitalization to routine oral treatment, although the process is relatively slow."　　"It is noteworthy that new drugs with the potential to replace heparin are officially listed in 2009, and that the impact of traditional heparin drugs is not yet apparent," said a Guangzhou medical researcher.　　But for the sea, it would be hard to be normal for the explosive growth of 2009 or even 2010 years of performance.　　The lack of turnover from "435 million yuan to 2.224 billion yuan" of the performance of the stimulus, Hepalink 148 yuan to maintain the price of how long, still a question.　　Production capacity expansion facing the bottleneck of the raw materials Hai Puri issued 40.1 million shares, the issue price for each share of 148 yuan, raise capital of about 5.9 billion. According to the plan,　　In the research and production of heparin sodium raw materials, the 482.745 million yuan collected from the project is for the production of 5 trillion units of Heparin sodium API, invest 382.0257 million yuan for the project's liquidity gap, regardless of the company's super raise 5 billion yuan how to spend, first look at the company's expansion plan how to achieve.　　The company's prospectus found that the company produced 2.5 trillion units of FDA grade heparin sodium and 3.9 trillion units respectively in 2009, both of which exceeded the corresponding 2 trillion units and 3 trillion units of capacity, so it is easier to understand by recruiting to expand production capacity. First of all, to calculate a sum, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the 2009 national pig Slaughter 640 million, Hepalink Prospectus said that the current China is currently used for heparin crude pig number accounted for the proportion of live pig slaughter non-payment This proportion also get the current domestic pig slaughter leading Yurun group of relevant people recognized--　　This can be estimated in 2009 years can be used for heparin coarse products, the number of active pigs is 384 million.　　According to the Hepalink Prospectus disclosed, the current Chinese heparin crude product yield level: every production of 100 million units of heparin crude products on average consumes 2500 pigs small intestine. This means that the company completed in 2009 6.4 trillion units of heparin sodium raw materials required 6.4 trillion units of the heparin, corresponding to the need for upstream pig small intestine 160 million matching.　　In other words, the company's procurement of upstream products probably occupy a total of 40% of the effective market share.　　However, this and the company in the institutional roadshow in the process of "use of the upstream supply of 22%" is clearly in the discrepancy.　　Next on this basis for the expansion of the company to calculate a sum.　　The company also said that the expansion of the company's construction project after the completion of production (10 trillion units of capacity), the expected annual demand for raw materials supply of 10 trillion units, a rough estimate of 100 million units of heparin sodium raw materials need 100 million units of the raw materials for heparin. If Hepalink successfully completed the expansion plan in 2012, the company will face 10 trillion singleThe demand of the heavy heparin, also according to the company's forecast "2012 per production of 100 million units of raw heparin, the average consumption of 2000 pigs small intestine", can be estimated that the company needs to be corresponding to 200 million pig small intestine matching extraction. Still according to the company's own calculations, 2012 pig production after the annual growth of 4.42% to reach 725 million head of the number of slaughter, but the company gave the use of small intestinal resources of pigs as high as 75%, resulting in the procurement of the company's raw heparin (corresponding to 200 million supporting pigs) accounted for the total amount of heparin gross 36.79　　%。　　But another pig slaughtering enterprise, a group of double sinks, said that as technology advances, small bowel utilization in a year or two "slightly improved some is possible, but to 75% is really difficult".　　Then, if the current 60% of the small intestine utilization rate, the company's procurement ratio will become 45.98%, if 65% and 70%, respectively, 42.44% and 39.41%.　　The two accounts concluded that, whether in the past 2009 or after the completion of capacity expansion in 2012, hepalink suppliers need providers to supply about 40% of the domestic market of heparin crude; otherwise, the cost of the new 865 million yuan will be idle. It is also important to point out that, in 2009, the company's 5 trillion unit capacity equipment completed 6.4 trillion units of products, overload status can continue to maintain. If it can maintain, then the company's new 500 million capacity equipment is to create a large proportion of idle, if not maintained, then the company will be able to maintain market share this year and next year, after all, many peers have already or through FDA certification to try to squeeze the existing share of the sea.