How to look at the 11 Golden Week attraction ticket revenue drop?

National Tourism Bureau October 8 issued the "2014 National Day holiday Tourism Statistics Report" shows that the 2014 National Day Golden Week, included in the nationwide holiday tourism statistical forecast system of 124 scenic spots (points), the national Day during the total reception of 31.69 million people, Ticket income of 1.604 billion yuan, compared with last year, the number of visitors increased by 1.41%, and ticket income fell by 3.37%. Many media people read the above data changes as "ticket economy" began to turn to the inflection point, or it boils down to the public's "silent protest" of ticket prices. I think that these interpretations are biased, lack of comprehensive understanding of the data and the status quo, the main reasons for the following four: 1, the statistical sample is less, it is difficult to generalize trend of the National Tourism Administration issued 11 Golden Week ticket Income statistics only 124 samples, last year's sample size is 125, How many tourist attractions are there in the whole country? According to the National Tourism Administration issued the "2011 China Tourist Attractions Development Report", by the end of 2011, the country has a total of 20,976 tourist attractions, coupled with nearly three years of new open all kinds of scenic spots around the country, the current total number of scenic spots should be at least 21,000, After all, the national tourism Development of fixed investment in the scale of more than a trillion over a year. According to this can be calculated, 124 sample Scenic Area of the total market share should be below 0.6%, in order to determine the market trend is too hasty. Even if the 124 sample scenic spots are the hottest scenic spot in the country, the more than 30 million visitors may not be able to exceed 10% of the total, because there are as many as 475 million trips in the whole Golden Week. 2, the popular scenic spots before the announcement of peak passenger flow warning or to its holiday ticket income a small decline in accordance with the provisions of the tourism law, tourist attractions must be approved the best tourist load, and to advance the release of peak passenger traffic warning information, this provision in the 11 Golden week of this year was better implemented. For example, Jiuzhaigou scenic spot absorption last year 11 Golden Week tourists serious detention events lessons, one months ahead of August 25 issued the "Jiuzhaigou Scenic area mid-Autumn Festival, 11 Golden Week Tourism Summit Bulletin." It is reported that this move to the Jiuzhaigou Golden cycle of the ticket income between millions of yuan less than last year. Other popular scenic spots have basically taken a similar approach to Jiuzhaigou (individual areas are issued by the local tourism authorities unified announcement of the peak notice), I believe that these scenic spots will also appear a small drop in ticket income. 3, the Chinese travel more rational, holiday travel deliberately avoid the peak according to the author just done a questionnaire, nearly 70% of people have the intention of the peak travel, and they choose the wrong peak travel reasons for more than 80% are to avoid the festival peak. This shows that 16 years after the Golden Week, the holiday travel behavior of tourists is significantly more rational than more than 10 years ago-most people are no longer keen to travel together. Back to the previous topic, Gold Week during the popular scenic spot ticket income is equal to the "ticket economy" encounter cold? The answer is obviously negative., if combined with the festival before and after the peak travel people contribute to the ticket income, the scenic area of the data must also increase, after all, this year 11 Golden Week's total tourism receipts rose as high as 15.7%. The State Council has recently issued a number of views on promoting tourism reform and development, which clearly states that the paid Let the public enjoy more free time off. Believe that the next place will soon be the corresponding policy landing measures, paid vacation coverage is bound to accelerate the increase, for those who have the desire to travel on the peak of the people this is good news. By then, the Golden Week's travel heat is bound to cool down, tourist attractions during the festival ticket income will continue downward. However, the decline of holiday ticket income caused by the decentralization of public travel time can never be equated with the "ticket economy". 4, the online ticket price war attracts a large number of price-sensitive tourists from the beginning of the year, Ctrip, and other online tourism merchants tickets price war, especially with the 1 Yuan ticket for the representative of nearly free promotional activities attracted a large number of price-sensitive tourists attention. For price-sensitive tourists, if there are nearly free tickets available during the holiday season, they will surely give up the popular spots with many people and high ticket prices, and the 1-yuan ticket and even the free tickets have intensified the trend before the festival. From this point of view, the festive period of domestic tourist attractions ticket income fluctuation is structural, a few popular scenic spot ticket income is indeed falling, but there are more common scenic tourist reception volume and ticket income is rising. In a word, the author thinks that individual scenic spot ticket income drop on the conclusion that "ticket economy" encounters inflection point is too far-fetched. The inflection point will certainly be there, but it will never come soon. The country has more than 20,000 different types of tourist attractions, their ownership structure and management model are very different, and the local economy has a complex of interest links, want to completely change the status quo can only 1.1 to advance, on the one hand by the policy "pressure", on the other hand by the market "push", both sides at the same time can completely end "ticket economy" This chronic disease.