Insurance stocks AH upside down mechanism most optimistic about the Tai Ping

After the Yu Yan Dragon Boat Festival, the stock market heat soared. As of June 5, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,753 and Rose 3.2% since June.　　The recent performance of Hong Kong equities has also been very active, with most state-owned enterprises index stocks soaring.　　China Life (601628.sh,02628.hk) and other insurance stocks, recently also showed a sharp rise in the shares and H-share discount rate is further increased. Insurance AH-share discount rate of the June, three insurance stocks have risen sharply, with China Ping ' an (601318.SH,02318.HK) 's stock market performance more prominent.　　June 2, China Ping An A shares to close 43.58 yuan, the share price to create a new year high, half a year to 93.3%, 3rd, the tail plate is closed up, by more than 800 million funds chasing.　　In the H-share market, Ping An H shares in China rose 9.25% from June 1 to 5th, while China Life H shares rose nearly 4% per cent over the same period. Haitong Securities said that the recent rise in a A-share insurance shares mainly by the Hong Kong market financial insurance stocks, rather than the impact of significant changes in fundamentals.　　Capital securities that, from the fundamentals and News, the U.S. Consumer Information index of the ultra-expected performance and the mainland to restart the qdii scheme in the short term, such as positive factors, are the recent good performance of the Hong Kong stock market. Since mid-February, H-share performance is significantly stronger than a-share, pulling the AH-shares premium rate has been lower. As of June 5, 57 a+h stocks, only 4 discount status, including 2 insurance stocks, China Ping An discount rate of 13.36%, the Chinese longevity discount rate of 8.49%.　　Capital securities that the early influx of international hot money into Hong Kong to taste the QDII Fund in Hong Kong's growing market, is leading to the current AH premium lower the direct cause. In fact, insurance stocks were upside down last year. April 14, 2008, China Ping An A shares for the first time below the H-share "upside down price" close, the highest discount rate of 30%.　　China Life was last June when Ah shares hang upside down. Some analysts believe that the AH premium is mainly determined by the difference between the mainland capital market and Hong Kong's capital market maturity, market liquidity, equity risk premium level between the two sides. Xu Shoude, an analyst with CIC Securities, argues that the reason for the prolonged upside of AH shares is that investors ' investment philosophies are different.　　Hong Kong investors are more interested in the growth of insurance stocks, while a-share investors pay more attention to the operating costs of insurance stocks and return on investment. A number of institutions are optimistic about the strong rally of the three insurance stocks have investment value?　　Haitong Securities that the current a-share insurance stock valuation level is significantly lower than the H shares, and absolute valuation has a better safety margin. Citic Securities believes that the implied new business value of the insurance stocks in the year compound growth only 5%~6%, underestimated obvious. Among them, China Ping An and the Chinese Tai Bao implied new business multiples of less than 15 times times, Chinese longevity implied multiple 23.8 times times, the corresponding new business value of the annual compound growth rate of 5%~6% and 12%~13%. ChineseLongevity has the highest valuation, but there is still some upside, and the valuation of China's Ping An and China's Tai Bao is on the low side. Of the three insurance stocks, most analysts are bullish on China's relatively low valuation of ping An and the Chinese kingpin. Haitong Securities forecast that China Ping ' an and China's 2009-year new business value will increase by 20% and 15% respectively, will be particularly bullish on the two insurance stocks. Societe Generale believes that the absolute valuation of China's Ping An and China's Tai Bao still has a better margin of safety from valuations.　　Wanguo recommended the preferred configuration of China's peace. Chinese longevity is still below the average level since the IPO, as compared with China's Ping an valuation premium. Oriental Securities that the performance of three insurance stocks, China Life is the best relative performance.　　Gives the investment proposal of "buy" China Ping An and Chinese Tai Bao, "overweight" Chinese longevity. Although the growth rate of premium income has slowed down this year, the insurance industry has maintained a good development trend.　　The medium and long term policy environment is getting better, the stock market is getting warmer, the IPO is coming back, and the investment channel is gradually liberalized.　　Wanguo that the capital market continues to be the most effective catalyst for the insurance stocks, while the product structure is optimized and the premium of the period is increasing rapidly, the bond interest rate stabilization and the stock market rise guarantee the higher investment income of the insurance company in 2009. At present, bond yields are visible at the bottom, and the yield on the short and long end is at record highs. Xu Shoude that this is beneficial to the investment performance of the insurance institution with the bond as its main asset.　　However, some analysts believe that the low yield of bonds to maintain the time is difficult to judge, the second half of the interest rate of return on investment has a greater uncertainty, this year, the investment income of insurance institutions is difficult to say. Implicit value refers to the value of an existing company without taking into account the company's future sales capability, which can be regarded as the value of the life insurance Company in the liquidation transfer. It directly reflects the current operating results of life insurance companies, which constitute the core value of life insurance companies.