Is traditional finance and Internet finance unbeaten?

Text / Xu Guoyun

The CBRC officially announced that since July 1, it will adjust the deposit-loan ratio calculation.

I think we all know that the loan-deposit ratio is the total bank loan / total deposit. That is the statutory regulatory indicator and is capped at 75%. Therefore, it can be said that the deposit / loan ratio koi is the spell tied to the bank and therefore Every year, bank practitioners will try their best to meet the stringent requirements of deposit-loan ratio for those deposit-taking ratio examinations. Therefore, there is a lot of caution between bank lending and liquidation.

Xu lady refined a few core changes:

1.75% upper limit did not move smaller molecules, increasing the denominator

2. The deposit-loan ratio supervision will be conducted in accordance with the total amount of the local and foreign currencies. After adjustment, the loan-to-deposit ratio supervision and assessment will be implemented on the RMB business. The loan-to-deposit ratio of both domestic and foreign currencies and the foreign currency business will be used as monitoring indicators.

3. In the numerator, in recent years, the deposit-loan ratio has been deducted from the molecular deduction of agricultural reloans, special loans for small and micro-enterprise loans, special loans for agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and deposits from village banks using the main sponsors On the basis of loans to farmers, small and micro enterprises, the following three items are deducted: First, the remaining period of the issuance of commercial banks is not less than one year, and the creditors have no right to demand loans corresponding to other types of bonds prepayed by the banks; secondly, Loans for small and micro enterprises corresponding to the loan; third, commercial banks use loans lent by the international financial organizations or foreign governments to lend money.

4. In the denominator, add the following two items to the calculus of the existing calculation: First, large transferable certificates of deposit issued by banks to enterprises and individuals; and second, the net deposits of foreign parent banks and their foreign banks absorbed by foreign-funded legal banks for more than one year.

Expert opinion:

[Help to alleviate the financing of small and medium-sized micro-financing is difficult]

Lian Ping, Chief Economist, Bank of Communications: The actual situation of new deductions for different commercial banks is different. It is difficult to accurately estimate the total amount of bank loans that can be released at one time. However, it is difficult to finance small and micro enterprises to raise funds and to optimize Loan structure will play a role.

[Theoretically freeable 800 billion liquidity]

Yang Chi, a researcher at Huaxia Bank Development Research Department: According to the CBRC's calculation of deposit-loan ratio, in theory, commercial banks can release liquidity up to 800 billion yuan. Taking into account the various loans and capital adequacy constraints, the actual release of funds will be lower than the theoretical value.

[To ease the pressure of bank deposits and loans]

Guo Tian Yong, director of the China Banking Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said: Large deposit certificates are the source of stable capital for banks and the development direction for regulators in the hope of getting funds from banks in the future. Counting large denominations into denominators will further reduce the pressure on banks' loan-to-deposit ratios.

[Encourage Financing to Take Loans Positive and Reduce the Development Motivation of Shadow Banks]

Industrial and Commercial Bank chief economist Lu political commissar: If you give up the loan-to-deposit ratio targets in theory, in theory, will help reduce the cost of financing 138bp. This adjustment, although less than 138bp, but also to a certain extent, reduce the financing costs play a positive role Yesterday said that taking into account the banking industry's 18.5% legal deposit reserve ratio exists, the simple loan-to-deposit ratio indicators The adjustment will not allow the banking industry to incur more additional financing. However, it will encourage financing to go "lending" and, to a certain extent, help to weaken the development momentum of the shadow banking sector.

Xu lady's three conjectures:

1. One of the most noteworthy data is that as of the end of the first quarter of this year, China's commercial bank loan and deposit ratio was 65.9%, although far from the red line, but this shows that a number of banks approaching the red line deposit and loan ratio. There is no doubt that such a practice by the CBRC is to relax the banks and lift the spell at a step by step for the banks. In other words, if banks accidentally beaten by Internet finance, the CBRC can say: "You can not rely on me I've already loosened you

2. The second signal is: special loans for supporting agricultural loans, special loans for small and micro enterprises, special financial bonds for agriculture, rural areas and farmers as well as small and micro enterprise loans corresponding to re-loans. These loans, both in terms of magnitude and scale, Is to compete with Internet finance at different levels.

3. The third signal is that from the previous regulatory changes in interbank deposits or the rise in interest rates, we can see that the regulatory authorities are implementing market-oriented reforms in finance and interest rates step by step. Therefore, the dividends brought by the reform and the reforms The development space opened up for Internet finance, meanwhile, the possible competition brought by banking reform and internet finance may be the problem that Internet finance must think.

Appendix: China Banking Regulatory Commission on the loan-deposit ratio adjustment requirements

Since July 1, 2014, the deposit and loan calculation will be adjusted.

1. The CBRC implements the deposit and loan regulatory examination on the RMB business of commercial banks and monitors the deposit and loan balances between the total foreign currency and foreign currency businesses.

Second, the calculation of depositors and lending elements (loans), deducted from the following six:

1. Support agriculture and then loans, support loans corresponding to small loans.

2. "Three Rural" special financial bonds corresponding to agriculture-related loans.

3. Small micro-enterprise special financial bonds corresponding to the micro-enterprise loans.

4. Commercial banks issue the remaining period of not less than one year, and creditors have no right to require banks to repay all kinds of bonds corresponding to the loan.

5. Loans granted by commercial banks using funds lent by international financial organizations or foreign governments.

6. Villages and Towns Bank uses the funds raised by the main sponsor to issue loans to farmers and small and micro enterprises.

Third, calculate the deposit and loan denominator (deposit), add about 2:

1. A large number of negotiable certificates of deposit issued by a bank to an enterprise or individual.

2. The foreign parent bank absorbed by the foreign-funded legal person bank shall keep a net amount of more than one year.