June Credit 1.5 trillion-day volume

The market for year-end monetary policy fine-tuning is expected to improve the June credit data again released days, the central bank July 8 released statistics showed that June, financial institutions yuan loans added 1.5304 trillion yuan. As of the first half of the year, the new RMB loan accumulated by financial institutions has reached 7.37 trillion yuan.　　Due to the continued volume of monetary credit in the first half of the year, the market is expected to improve monetary policy fine-tuning. As the first half of the year's currency credit continued to exceed expectations of rapid growth, domestic inflationary pressures and asset bubbles have again aroused concern, many economists and institutions have expected that the four-quarter monetary policy orientation will be adjusted.　　The director of the Central bank's research bureau, Zhang Jianhua, also wrote that it is advisable to fine-tune the monetary policy in a timely manner while maintaining the overall easing. The central bank also announced in Wednesday that it would issue a three-month and one-year Chinese-style ticket in the open market on 9th with a minimum circulation of 50 billion yuan. This is a one-year central vote after 7 months of suspension of the resumption of the issue, although the circulation is relatively moderate, but the signal of withdrawal of funds is obvious.　　The central bank also issued a 50 billion-yuan three-month-old vote in Thursday, with the winning rate rising 6.29 basis points to 1.0279% per cent for the first time in six months. According to the reporter understand, the four big banks June new loans only 365 billion yuan, far below their 40% of the banking assets scale, joint-stock bank is still the main force of new loans.　　June, BOC new loans 150 billion yuan, ICBC new loans 90 billion yuan, CCB new loans 74.7 billion yuan, new bank loans near 50 billion yuan. As for the reasons for the June credit volume, CICC believes that, in addition to the bank's late-season loan scale, it also reflects the "tea-water" relationship between central fiscal allocations and bank loans.　　Since capital is mainly funded by the central government, capital is in place to lend, and the relationship between central and bank loans is "tea and water", and in May a third central investment of 70 billion yuan was pushed up, pushing up the scale of lending in June.　　The latest second half of the China Economic Strategy report by Merrill Lynch, Asia-Pacific economist Lu, says concerns about waste of resources, overcapacity, rising non-performing rates and inflation may start to rein in local government investment by the central bank as early as next spring, when austerity measures will focus on bank credit and project investment. CICC expects that the year-end central economic Work conference could initially release signals of policy adjustments.　　CICC believes it will first use austerity measures other than raising interest rates, but it is hard to tighten the loans because a lot of longer-term infrastructure projects are just beginning to start, and it is hard to stop lending abruptly, and raising rates will not be possible until the second half of next year. "China's inflation is likely to come earlier than in the US," said CICC's chief economist, "which rose from negative to 3.5% in 2010 this year, with the investment-led economic growth pattern making China more susceptible to international commodity prices, with CPI in foodA larger share also makes China more susceptible to rising agricultural prices. He said China's past inflation cycle has been characterized by a classic trilogy of "Price rises, rising property prices and rising prices".　　The Chinese government should learn from the lesson and control inflation in advance to avoid the impact of the future fluctuations in asset prices. But there are also economists who argue that it is not appropriate to exaggerate inflationary pressures and therefore to tighten monetary policy in total. Song Li, a professor of China Institute of Reform and Development at Renmin University, said that even if there were obvious inflationary pressures, the pace and structure of government investment should be adjusted first to adjust the credit delivery caused by government investment rather than to make a rash adjustment of monetary policy.　　In order to avoid injury and has not fully activated the private investment and other market demand. "There is no big risk of inflation and loan quality at the moment, so monetary policy does not have to be a total austerity adjustment, but it should continue to work to promote economic recovery through structural optimization." If there is more obvious inflationary pressure, the need for a certain degree of regulation, it should be appropriate to regulate the pace and structure of government investment, not the non-government investment and consumption part. Song Li that macro-control is facing the adjustment of fiscal policy or adjust the choice of monetary policy. If the direct adjustment of monetary policy may adversely affect the non-government investment, and if the fiscal policy is adjusted, especially the investment and structure of the Government, it can not only adjust the investment demand, but also adjust the supporting loan policy.　　Therefore, the next step of active fiscal policy to the camera choice, and monetary policy should maintain a moderately loose posture. At a time when many agencies are discussing possible rates of interest rate hikes, Song Li recommends adjusting the credit structure and reducing the cost of financing small and medium-sized enterprises and consumers. Song Li also said that credit policy should be shifted from gross expansion to structural optimization, and it was suggested that the credit structure should be optimized, eliminating unnecessary credit rationing and credit discrimination as a result of appropriate fine-tuning of credit scale. To guide commercial banks to maintain the reasonable growth of supporting loans for infrastructure construction, we will gradually increase credit services to small and medium-sized enterprises, central and western regions and rural areas. Explore new forms of consumer loans to support the steady growth of consumer demand.　　At the same time, to gradually increase the enterprise's technical renovation and equipment updates and other loans, support structural adjustment and capacity adjustment. Wanguo's second half of the China Economic report also said that active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy are important conditions for China's economic recovery. As the fundamentals of economic recovery remain weak, loose macro policies will not change until the economy steps into a full-blown recovery. In terms of interest rates, the current low interest rates are an important policy tool for private investment and real estate start-up, and thus for economic recovery, so the current low interest rates will not change until the economy is fully recovered and prices have soared. Based on the judgment of economic growth and prices, this low interest rate is maintained for at least two years.