Mortgage demand is regulated April credit is hard to exceed 700 billion

The credit crunch of April may be as warm as the weather.　　After March, when new loans were significantly below market expectations, credit in April will continue to fall. In an interview with the Daily Economic news, a number of market analysts predicted that April new loans would be about 600 billion yuan, not more than 700 billion yuan.　　And with the increase in the rate of registration to further limit the ability of commercial banks to put credit, the May credit is expected to be similar to April. Credit or continued low "in April, the conservative estimate of the credit will be about 600 billion yuan, not exceeding 700 billion yuan."　　Churuan, a Guotai banking analyst, said April credit was slightly below the market's previous forecasts and could be $600 billion trillion ~7000. Similarly, all major institutions have made a lower estimate of the April credit delivery than expected by the market.　　CICC's study in late April pointed out that the new loans in April may only be 500 billion ~6000 billion, below the expected 800 billion yuan.　　The data show that in March this year, the renminbi loan added 510.7 billion yuan, far below this year January, February's 1.39 trillion yuan and 700.1 billion yuan, and the April forecast data also appears to reflect the recent management credit control measure effect.　　Churuan reporters that in 2010, 7.5 trillion of the total amount of delivery to see, if according to the "3322" delivery structure, 1 quarters and 2-quarter credit should all be 230 million, and the first quarter has been cast 2.6 trillion, more than 300 billion, so the two-quarter credit on the scale may be around 2 trillion. Wanguo analyst Li Huiyong also pointed out that, due to the 1-quarter loan overall exceeded 300 billion, the 2-quarter loan control will be further increased to ensure that the first half of the credit control in the year around 60%.　　He expects credit to hit around 2 trillion in the 2 quarter, with credit at around 500 billion in April.　　The size of the mortgage is deadlocked against the near-madness of house prices, where management concentrated on regulation in April, a property-control storm that has stalled the size of bank mortgages, a major reason for the April credit crunch being lower than market expectations. There is a market view that, under repressive and increasingly stringent capital controls on the scale of expansion, in the face of the increase in the level of credit continued to rise, the hot property loan last year, in the real estate control storm, banks on mortgage interest rates and the number of first Shengcheng have strict restrictions, will choose to "Price replenishment",　　And the scale of mortgage lending continues to decline.　　Churuan points out that in the 2 quarter of credit, usually April and June will be slightly higher, but because of the real estate regulation in April, the tightening of policy on the real estate industry will suppress the demand for loans, making mortgage loans in a stalemate, which also restricts the size of credit. Recently, the chairman of the CBRC stressed that the banking system should strictly control the pace and speed of credit delivery while effectively controlling the banking sector's suddenRisk, especially the regulation of local government financing platform loans and real estate loans as the focus of attention.　　The reporter learned that, in addition to asking banks to tighten credit for the property sector, the tightening of loans in the local government financing platform was also the main reason why the overall credit market was lower than expected in April. Churuan told the Daily Economic news reporter, with the local government's financing impulse is curbed, strict control of the financing scale of local government financing platform, strictly prohibit the bank to the local government financing platform to increase credit, which also makes April loans slightly lower than the previous market expectations.