Moving side of the duel: bat in the end which strong?

Since Baidu, Ali, Tencent three mountain shape, any evolution of China's Internet can not be separated from bat. When the traditional Internet evolves to the mobile internet, what happens to bat's showdown at the mobile end? Who has the largest "mobile" arms? What battles will the final outcome be decided on? See more? Watch the air? Who's that? Banished who?

This paper evaluates and analyzes three mobile power with facts and data from several different angles.

Q: After "Double 11", who is embarrassed?

November 10, 2014 21:30, Ali 2014 's double 11 shopping carnival Media Live just beginning, the ocean, NYSE Alibaba (BABA.NYSE) 's share price jumped to a 2.37% jump, up to 117.27 U.S. dollars/shares.

2014-year double 11 at the end of the whole day, Ali platform Net purchase volume, fixed in 57.1 billion yuan, compared with the 2013 double 11 36.2 billion yuan growth 58%, and mobile end transactions accounted for 42.6%.

Think back to the end of this year, Tencent Micro-letter with the help of the launch of the red envelope, the momentum reached its peak, it seems that Tencent almost will be the mobile power of the war burned to Ali's home, the nasty Ma Yunqiang push the app to fight the micro-letter, but like the sand into the lake, With the help of the red envelope function, the outside is crazy to pay "one night bound 100 million bank card", micro-trust dealers to the core stronghold of Ali-Alipay, Tencent seems to be all at your fingertips.

At that time, Ma Yun had no reason not to worry.

As a result, the Spring Festival in 2014 just passed, MA Yun is issued the "Cloud + end, Ali Baba in the mobile electric business," The internal mail, put a decisive battle mobile end posture.

March 10, 2014, Tencent announced to Jingdong (JD.NSDQ) strategic investment, to 214.7 million U.S. dollars Cash + Pat NET all equity +qq NET purchase all Equity + Xun logistics all assets, in exchange for the new 351.7 million shares in Beijing and east, accounting for the expansion of the capital of Beijing East 15%. Tencent's 2014-year Quarterly report further disclosed that the stake in Beijing-East Cash + assets total cost of 8.798 billion yuan.

May 21, 2014, the Beijing-east IPO, Tencent again spent 1.311 billion U.S. dollars (equivalent to 8.13 billion yuan), according to the share price of 9.5 U.S. dollars/shares (19 U.S. dollars/ads) to buy 138 million shares in Beijing east, the proportion of its stake in Jingdong further to 17.9%.

According to this calculation, Tencent has subscribed two times to the total price of Jingdong shares up to 16.928 billion yuan. In addition, Tencent also in micro-mail and mobile phone QQ two big mobile end to the east to provide a first-level flow entrance.

At that time outside of the Beijing-east acquisition of Tencent's strategic investment generally see much, especially optimistic about the micro-letter entrance to the Beijing-East in the mobile end of the strategic value. It is under the favorable stimulus of Tencent's shares, the Beijing-east to exceed the expected completion of the IPO, the market value of a breakthrough 30 billion U.S. dollar mark, become China's fourth largest internet company.

Because the micro-letter has a very little mobile end of traffic, Zhou even ridicule "root pole can blossom." So, after the marriage between Jingdong and Tencent, what will be the outcome against Ali at the mobile end?

Surprisingly, Tencent micro-letter although a blood transfusion to the BoE, but the results of the east is far less than the outside of the pre-sentence, Tencent in the field of mobile electric business again encounter acclimatized, and the beginning of the world to see the empty Ali mobile end, the actual results have greatly reversed the previous pre-sentence.

From the last 5 quarters of the mobile end of the transaction accounted for the situation, Ali is always high out of Beijing east. Ali's mobile end accounted for a 14.67% increase from the third quarter of 2013 to 35.82% in the third quarter of 2014, while the east end of the movement accounted for the ratio from 5.54% in the third quarter of 2013 to 29.6% in the third quarter of 2014 (Figure 1).

Need to specifically note that the mobile end of the two are not consistent with the statistics, Ali is based on the volume of turnover calculation, and Jingdong is only in accordance with the size of orders to calculate. According to Jingdong Mall CEO Baidu Introduction, "Order price, mobile end to lower than the PC side." This means that if the moving end of the Beijing-East order is converted to the same size as Ali, the ratio will be lower than the current figure. This also further illustrates that the Beijing-east and Alibaba in the mobile end of the gap widened.

In addition, as seen from the mobile-side growth trend line shown in Figure 1, Jingdong also maintains a steady natural growth rate with Ali. This also reflects from the side, Jingdong from the second quarter of 2014 began to receive a letter of the first level of traffic after the entrance, did not appear in the mobile end of the sudden growth. Before the outside world generally optimistic, Jingdong itself is also holding a very high expectations of the micro-credit flow entrance, the actual effect is surprising. In fact, Tencent's strategic investment in the east and the latter in the micro-letter of the first-level portal, Tencent's own Xun had access to micro-letter, but at the end of 2013, Xun from the internal and micro-letter mobile orders to do statistics, found that the effect is not even as Jingdong app.

The belief that "a pole can blossom" in a micro-letter is brutally shattered by reality. The inefficiency of the micro-credit flow to the traditional electric power quotient is again evident in the double Xi. 2014.

About the dual 11 of the mobile end of the ratio, the total published around Jingdong only three data: up to 10:00, the mobile end of the total order volume of the proportion is 3 times times the same period in 2013; As of 16:00, mobile-end orders accounted for a total order volume of 40%; up to 24:0 0, the number of mobile-end orders accounted for more than 40%.

The first number, in fact, is an invalid data, because no one knows the amount of data for the same period in 2013. In addition, 40% of the mobile end of the ratio is calculated according to the order volume, according to the transaction volume, should be lower than this ratio. Moreover, Beijing East failed to disclose mobile end orders, from their own app, micro-mail, mobile phone QQ details.

Compared to Jingdong, Ali Double 11 of the mobile end of the ratio, in the media conference scene is dynamic display, with the increase in turnover and real-time changes, the final 57.1 billion yuan turnover of the total number of mobile end of the fixed in 42.6%.

By this double 11, Ali for the first time through intuitive Dynamic data, to the outside world to prove its potential and status of mobile power. The micro-letter to Ali's "dimensionality reduction attack" theory, seems to be dead.

Second question: Bat Mobile family which strong?

In the third quarter of 2014, Baidu Mobile end created 4.86 billion yuan revenue, accounting for 36% of its total income; Ali's China retail business (cat + Taobao) at the mobile end of the 3.719 billion yuan revenue, accounting for the total revenue of China's retail business 29%; Tencent game from mobile end to get 2.6 billion yuan revenue, accounts for 23% of the total revenue of its gaming business.

From the trend point of view, Baidu revenue of the mobile end accounted for a steady rise in the situation, growth is also the fastest; the mobile end of China's retail business is lower than the starting point, but it is now accelerating upward trend, while the mobile end of the Tencent game accounted for the late start, the original rapid rise, but in the third quarter of 2014 show a transition decline (figure 4), on this, Tencent explained in the quarterly Bulletin: "The main reason is that the delayed release of the new version resulted from the fact that we had to launch the visitor login option in these games." We have roughly completed the integration of the visitor login options in October 2014. ”

Intuitively, Baidu's number is a big lead. Although these three mobile-end revenue data are not fully comparable, Baidu's amount is all the mobile end of data, and Ali and Tencent is only one of the mobile end of the data, but, whether Ali Taobao + day cat, or Tencent's game, are their own revenue-generating core, so the business of the mobile end of the situation, Generally reflect the overall situation of their respective enterprises.

Then from the respective mobile end of the market position of the horizontal comparison, BAT's core business in the mobile end of the market share, the basic continuation of its dominance in the PC side (Figure 5).

In the third quarter of 2014, Ali Group Day Cat + Taobao total transactions, occupy the domestic overall online shopping market 80%, while at the mobile end, day cat + Taobao market share, the monitoring data is 86.2%, easy to view the monitoring data is 83.6%. This shows that Ali group in the mobile end of the market share of electric dealers, and even higher than its PC end of the market share.

In the second quarter of 2014, Tencent had nearly half of its market share in the field of hand travel, according to the Analysys monitoring data. According to the forecast, 2014 China Hand Tour market size will reach 24 billion-25 billion yuan, and Tencent's goal is to win 12 billion yuan, this share with the PC side of the market share is roughly equivalent. The industry expects that by the end of 2014, the number of users will go beyond the page and end of the tour.

As of the third quarter of 2014, Baidu's search market share in the mobile end is about 80%, significantly higher than its 70% market share in the PC, Baidu from the mobile end of the search traffic is also more than the PC side.

BAT's respective main mobile-end app, Baidu Mobile search the number of active users quietly driven up, to reach Tencent's mobile phone QQ, micro-letter to match the 500 million active users, and Ali of the mobile phone Taobao or Alipay wallet, active users are very different from Tencent (Figure 6).

Of course, because users on the phone to use the search frequency far less than micro-mail and mobile phone QQ, so even if Baidu mobile search active users close to Tencent, the actual degree of activity is far less than Tencent. On the reasons for the relatively low frequency of mobile search, Li explains: "The handset side each user searches the number to be less than the PC side, because if the user needs to search for some things carefully, they will choose to sit in front of the computer, this also increases the PC side search frequency, but uses the handset search all is the random, Users who want to get quick results, such user behavior also causes the number of searches not more than the PC side. ”

Question three: "Over-mining" VS "tamping The Ecology", who has the stamina?

Tencent has micro-letter, mobile phone QQ, mobile QQ space three big mobile end weapon, whether it is the number of mobile end users or occupy the user's mobile end time, are bat in the remaining two unmatched, but its mobile end of the income accounted for is at the bottom, It shows that Tencent is still in the initial state of commercial development of mobile end.

Tencent has always been the "product manager"-led corporate culture, and for the micro-religious father Zhangxiaolong, all the commercialization of micro-trust is cautious, he has made it clear that "user experience will never let the business of the cash." It is clear that Tencent is not ready to Kaniko the commercial side of the mobile end.

Compared with Tencent, in the corporate culture of all the operation-oriented Ali, is another extreme, sometimes in order to promote the commercial change is often ignored user experience, Ali acquired UC Browser, the map of the gold, Sina Weibo, all present this feature.

UC Browser by Ali acquisition, its mobile browser in the market share tends to decline, not only by Tencent's QQ browser overtook, and the gap has a widening trend (Figure 7). According to Analysys International Monitoring, the last 7 quarters, the market share of QQ Browser is basically stable in about 36%, and UC browser from more than 38% all the way down to about 32%, and UC Browser lost market share is significantly Baidu browser revenue bag.

and the cumulative number of users, as of the second quarter of 2014, QQ browser to 38.5% of the share is much higher than the UC browser 25.8% of the share.

UC browser's share drops, and Ali's choice is not unrelated. UC since being Ali acquired, heavy to create "God horse search", and the core purpose of this search is in the mobile end for Taobao and cat diversion. This not only disperses the UC in the mobile browser research and development aspect the energy, moreover this diversion behavior causes the user experience to have the different degree harm.

Similarly, Ali shares the Sina Weibo and the High German map, has been in the "unilateral request", that is, to maximize its commercial development, so that Sina Weibo was nicknamed Ali's "advertising microblogging", and Gould also became Ali Business promotion portal. This does not take into account the user experience of the behavior, so that the map and Baidu map of the market share of the widening gap between the larger.

Ali this "excessive exploitation" at the mobile end will cause its insufficient stamina at the mobile end, and cannot be judged at present. But Tencent and Baidu, at least for now, have not fully tapped their potential on the mobile side. Tencent is clearly reserved for the commercialization of mobile terminals, and the current focus is on the ecological basis of a solid mobile end. Baidu Robin also has a similar idea: "Mobile search traffic is really faster than the commercial speed of mobile search, which is also in the expectation, because the company does not want to make this part of the flow of excessive commercialization." Mobile search is still in the early stages of development, there are many opportunities to increase the stickiness of users.

Four questions: Mobile enclosure, O2O who can win?

Once, Baidu map and Ali's gold map in order to rob O2O entrance position and play, and Tencent map once also have to join the impulse, helpless because it too weak and unable to compete.

Two large mobile map dealers after more than a year, but suddenly found that, even if the map based on lbs (position positioning) and the combination of the natural advantages, but not O2O natural best entrance, because the development of the user map for the media to carry out a variety of basic necessities of life and consumption habits is very difficult. The Giants eventually had to give up the map as a O2O entrance.

After the map, Ali also tried to Amoy point, mobile phone Taobao as a O2O breakthrough, but the basic results are very little.

Unlike Baidu and Ali, Tencent's O2O has been around the micro-letter, along with the public number, micro-letter payment on the line, Tencent's O2O layout gradually has embryonic form.

Micro-letter launched payment function, Ali immediately will O2O open the burden of the earth to pay treasure purse. Although nearly 200 million of the active users of the Alipay wallet are far less than the micro-letters, but at least significantly higher than the micro-letter binding bank card in the micro-letter payment users.

For the lack of fan marketing and customer relationship management platform Short board, Alipay Wallet May 2014 also launched a "public number" of the "service Window", merchants in the Payment Platform opened service window, Alipay users can pay attention to the service window of the merchant.

Since then, Alipay Wallet has launched a "future plan" aimed at O2O landing. Including the future hospital, the future public transport, the Future of Life plaza, such as a series of plans to be paid to the treasure access to hospitals, public transport, shopping malls, subways, hotels, food and other life scenes, consumers can in the future pay treasure wallet found offline consumption, The service place, and uses the handset to pay through the payment treasure purse. For example, through the "Future Hospital" scheme, which is launched by Alipay Wallet, consumers can directly select hospitals, registered, hospital navigation, waiting queues, payment, reports and interactive functions of doctors and patients.

Not to be outdone by the micro-letter on August 28, 2014 launched the "Wisdom of life" industry-wide O2O solutions for the various industries to provide "connectivity to all" capabilities. Specifically, the micro-letter public number + micro-credit payment as the basis to help traditional industries to "transplant" the original business to the micro-trust platform.

For example, the wisdom of the hotel, can achieve micro-letter self-service Choice room, micro-letter door, micro-letter customer service and micro-letter payment; Smart restaurant, can be micro-mail self-service ordering, micro-letter call services and self-service checkout; Wisdom Hospital, can be the whole process of micro-letter registration, to the number of micro-letter reminders, micro-letter payment, micro-letter inspection checklist; Smart ticketing, realization of micro-letter payment purchase Tickets , micro-Letter select seats, paperless tickets, and even micro-letter performance interaction; Wisdom attractions: can be anywhere, anytime mobile phone booking, WiFi coverage, real-time information release, customized customer service.

September 3, not to be outdone Baidu launched a "direct number", the full effort to grab food O2O market. The direct number is similar to the micro-letter public number, is the merchant in the Baidu Mobile platform to open the account, consumers in their mobile platform (search, map, etc.) on the search for the name of the merchant, Baidu will be at the mobile end of the priority to show the merchant's direct number, and if consumers in the search box input "@ Merchant name", you can "direct" Merchant's direct number platform. In this way, Baidu will be online with a clear consumer intent of the user to guide the business offline, contributing to consumption, and precipitation users for fan marketing.

After the trial and error and deviation correction, bat three O2O model is increasingly consistent, and basically in the direction of Tencent closer. O2O different from the previous PC-side E-commerce, the aim is to electronically implement all the traditional commerce under the line, to connect online users (consumers) and offline merchants through mobile Internet, to form a large business ecosystem and to make spontaneous business interactions between online and offline through the chain of relationships.

A complete O2O closed loop, by the entrance (online user source)-payment (real-time settlement)-offline (traditional business interface)-Scene (consumer use habits) four links. Among the four elements, bat three has different abilities and endowments.

Entrance: Tencent Optimal. At present, Ali Alipay Wallet can get the mobile end of the flow far less than Baidu and Tencent. And Tencent and Baidu in the mobile terminal access to traffic, even if the total amount is comparable, but Baidu's flow is free, far less than the very strong relationship chain micro-letter. Ali do O2O in the entrance also exist line under the issue of mutual Bo, offline business hope O2O platform will user drainage over, and Ali due to the existence of parity, even the line under the original user drainage to the line. And in the future of Business fans marketing and customer relationship management, Baidu even less than pay treasure purse, not to mention the micro-letter. Because most people do not want to search for the purpose of registering an account, even if the user has Baidu account will not simply to login to search, so, Baidu direct number of merchants difficult to accumulate fans, follow-up interaction and marketing.

Payment: Ali Best. The number of subscribers to the Alipay wallet is much higher than the number of users who pay for the micro-credit, although the current micro-credit payments in the catch-up, but in the habit of paying users are naturally inclined to pay the treasure. The only advantage of micro-letter payment is that, because it is bundled with the micro-letter, and the micro-letter user stickiness is much higher than the Alipay purse, with the accumulation of time will greatly activate the use of micro-letter payment and frequency. And Baidu Although also launched the Baidu Wallet, but at present basic still can't the O2O strategy form effective support, missing the payment link, even can say Baidu even O2O business closed loop has not effectively formed.

Scene: Baidu is weakest. In O2O's closed loop, in addition to having enough potential users to guide the line, it is necessary to cultivate the user's habit of using mobile payment tools when consuming online. Whether in shopping, catering, tourism, accommodation and other aspects of basic necessities, there are enough scenes to prompt users to use mobile payment. This aspect whether pays the treasure purse or the micro-letter payment, all in the active Union merchant cultivates the user the usage habit, but the Baidu wallet because the user base question, in uses the scene the promotion aspect is also too far.

Line: Ali best. In the closed loop of the O2O, the final foothold is also online under the merchant, that is, to have enough offline merchants to access the O2O platform. Offline and O2O platform docking is also the most complex, not only involves the ground sweeping street-style business development, but also involves offline business background IT system transformation, so that with the O2O platform can be seamless docking. To the offline business IT system technical transformation, for bat may not be a bottleneck. The key is to the online business expansion of the speed of competition, and in this regard to a strong operational capacity of Ali has a natural advantage. In addition, how to cultivate business in the O2O platform for effective marketing and customer relationship management, Ali in the field of electrical business has accumulated considerable experience, and Baidu and Tencent almost need to learn from scratch.

Overall, in the area of O2O layout, Tencent and Ali should be in the same starting line. Although Ali online push and pay is stronger than Tencent, but in the flow of access, in social marketing is greatly weaker than Tencent. More crucially, the O2O of the mobile end is a central one, which is very different from the "irrigation" pattern of the concentration of traffic in the electric business area before Ali, and is naturally matched to the centrality of mobile society. Of course, whether Tencent or Ali, have not mastered the rules of the O2O business world, this open territory in the end who can take advantage of, depending on who is the implementation of the big, who took a detour less.

The O2O competition, Baidu temporarily in the most disadvantaged position. Entrance, payment, scene, line, Baidu does not have a link to occupy the advantage, even its direct number is essentially a directional advertising only, after all, without payment there is no O2O closed loop. If Tencent and Ali have started to trot, Baidu is still a toddler.

(Responsible editor: Mengyishan)