New data: Big city electric business user growth stagnation

"Billion Power network News" October 23, in response to the 2012 electricity sales growth generally slowed, billion power network linked to the domestic well-known data analyst car, he said nearly a year of sales growth is considerable, but UV (independent user) growth does slow down. "E-commerce UV growth and business growth is not matched, now the UV growth has slowed down, but the sales growth is very considerable." ”

Car product perception estimates, independent new users stagnant growth is mainly for the one or two-line big cities, 345-line cities, independent new users are actually growing. "From some data, the growth of new users in big cities has stalled and more will rely on 345-line cities to grow new users," he said. And, the three or four-line city is willing to buy online, the purchasing power is not bad, even higher than the people in the big cities. ”

In addition, the vehicle is also analyzed, which means that the future UV will not be the main driving force for the growth of sales of electric platform. "After the electric business platform to obtain new UV is not easy, take the Jingdong mall data for example, UV growth rate is not as fast as the volume of growth, indicating that Beijing will also rely on the existing UV increase trading volume." ”

What does the UV growth slowdown mean? Cheping that one is the average number of users to contribute to increase the volume of transactions, or the conversion rate of the electricity trader is improving. On the other hand, the UV growth slowdown may lead to slower sales growth in the future, because the past year, the sales of electricity dealers to a certain extent is playing a price war, is tantamount to a loss to do business. If the future does not lose business, it is difficult to say that the amount of UV contributions are guaranteed.

At the same time, Cheping said the slowdown in UV growth will aggravate the competition among big electric dealers. "Cat, Jing Dong, when, Suning and other consumer platforms in a number of buyers to win" their own users, even in each buyer's online shopping wallet for their share. Electric dealers have entered the era of "buyer's share" and "wallet share". ”

But there are also upbeat news that the car's perception is that while the growth of independent new users on the PC side is slowing, new users on the mobile side are growing very fast. "To what extent have the mobile electric operators developed this year?" I feel like the end of the year. The Electricity trader platform next year transaction volume if does not have 10% to come from the movement, all is embarrassed to say with others. "(red)

The following is a column by Alipay chief data analyst Cheping:

Read a lot of data every day, and stick to the morning reading about the amount of electricity reported, today to talk with you a few points.

may not be accurate, but only one's own see.

UV growth slows

Compared with the previous two years, the electricity business has dropped sharply this year. Basically every family said business is not good to do, and even some of the past very scenery of the electric Shangdou out of the flow of funds are being acquired.

There are many reasons for this, and various analyses have been written. And I see an interesting phenomenon from the point of view of data, the UV growth of e-commerce this year and business growth is not match. Although the overall sales growth of the electric dealer is still very considerable, but the growth rate of UV real slowed.

Therefore, I feel that the future of UV will not be the main driver of the platform, after the Electronic business platform to obtain new UV will be more difficult. For example, the data from Jingdong Mall, their UV growth rate is not as fast as the volume growth, Jingdong also relies on the existing UV increase trading volume.

The slowdown in UV growth means that average per-user contribution is increasing, or the conversion rate is improving. On the other hand, the UV slowdown may lead to a future growth of electricity sales slowed down, because the past year's sales of electricity to a certain extent is playing a price war, is tantamount to a loss to do business. If the future does not lose business, it is difficult to say that the amount of UV contributions are guaranteed. ”

In addition, the slowdown in UV growth will aggravate the competition between the big electric dealers. "Cat, Jing Dong, when, Suning and other consumer platforms in a number of buyers to win" their own users, even in each buyer's online shopping wallet for their share. Electric dealers have entered the era of "buyer's share" and "wallet share". ”

Next year, the mobile electric chamber

PC Power has declined, while mobile operators have been warming up.

In addition to the Beijing-East visitors to the external disclosure of the mobile power quotient ratio, the first half of the mobile end of the platform has also been to do wireless services. How far have the mobile-electric operators grown this year? I feel like the end of the year. Electric business platform next year if not 10% from mobile, are embarrassed to talk to others to do their own electricity business.

Why should I explain the outbreak of the mobile electric chamber? From the data we've seen, some of the big electric dealers are sure to move 25% of the volume next year, and in fact, ebay's mobile transactions in the UK and Australia have accounted for 25% this year. If the electricity trader has one-fourth of the trading volume from the mobile end, it does not indicate that mobile is the core of the future electric business?

The data age is far away.

Finally talk about my old line, the electrical business data analysis. A few days ago, a friend said I, 2012 on the data analysis of the electric quotient did not talk much before. There are two reasons for this: one is that this year, the electricity dealers are busy layoffs, the value of data analysis has declined; second, I am not so optimistic about the prospect of China's electricity market using data.

In the 2010, the ignorance of the fearless, I think the data can help the Chinese electricity business a lot. After two years in the experience of Ali, as well as the depth of communication with the appliance business platform, it is found that China's electrical business distance from the real use of data is very remote.

There are two main reasons for this situation.

One is the company CEO heart too anxious, they all want to use the data immediately after the immediate, think that the panacea to eat the data will boost sales. Sorry, you'll be disappointed. It takes a process to get a data analyst to influence the product department, then to the decision maker, and finally to the company's raw material. So, data operations need to be patient, even a few years.

Second, the Data Analysis Division team also need some time to grow. Within five days, two big internet executives asked me where I could get a good data analyst. I give the answer is only to cultivate themselves, even if Baidu and Tencent such large companies, but also vigorously establish a data analysis team, where you go to dig? And there are individual data analysts are strong, in your company alone also play no role in the end, it is likely to leave.

In my own experience, I from the Dunhuang net to Alipay spent two years to integrate more people's wisdom to the Alipay data Analysis team to build, now I found that the water is actually very deep, aiming at the same place as before.

Therefore, I think the Chinese electric quotient distance data analysis still has a long way to go, the former is very popular to talk about large data, but I feel the end will become a slogan. It must be big companies that really derive the most from big data, and those who talk big data as marketers don't make substantive content.

Impetuous and quick success of the mentality, resulting in a lot of company product managers are not product managers, I really do not want to invite a lot of data analysts come in, and then these analysts are not data analysts at all, the result of the data driven this thing is very impetuous.