Niemesen: The real estate market does not form bubbles now

Moderator: Today we also invited the studio of the Chamber of Commerce, the president of the Nieme, and we together to explore the real estate hot issues.　　NIE president, hello.　　Niemesen: Hello.　　Moderator: We also saw in the film, the country has 40% cities, land prices have fallen, but also a lot of urban land transactions have risen, how do you view the land market such price fluctuations, and the difference in the land price will not affect the future price? Niemesen: In fact, the land price reflects the next investment in the real estate market, because you do not buy land, do not do this investment, there is no next development, there is no next to the entire real estate market, so it is a very important assessment of the future. The land price depends on two factors, one is to buy the land, why some places to sell, land prices down, sell out, the bottom may have risen. Depends on two factors, one is the situation of funds, the other is confidence. For example, some time ago some urban real estate market warmer, a large amount of money back, developers hand money, this is the most basic, rich to buy land, but he did not believe that he is not optimistic about the future of the city's real estate market, so money in the hands still will not go to buy land. Only he is optimistic about the future of the market, at the same time there is strength, there is money, and confidence, these two also have, then he will buy land. If we all judge the same, then the land price of this place will rebound, these two are indispensable. From the previous period of time in China's real estate market, generally speaking, is beginning to rebound, trading volume rise, but the amplitude is not the same, some faster, some slow, so for the future of the forecast, some confidence is stronger, some confidence worse.　　And the return of funds is not the same, there must be differences, that is, capital and confidence is not at the same time in one place, so there will be differences. Moderator: You have just said, the real estate market some time ago has warmed up, housing prices now we also see, to some extent, some rise, many real estate prices even hit a new high, you think this trend will continue to rise?　　Is there a bubble phenomenon? Niemesen: I think the previous period of real estate market rebound is actually measured by two indicators, one is trading volume, one is the price, the whole from the national statistical data, trading volume warmer, trading volume rise is the main indicator of recovery. And I personally think that from the aspect of insurance growth, investment, and consumption, trading volume is much more important than house price. Why do you say that? Because in the supply and demand relationship, in the market, only the supply and demand of both sides to form a transaction in order to form a price, the price is in the transaction to seek a balance, only after trading volume warmer, the price is meaningful. So what is the price? You see a period of time before the government issued policies to stimulate consumption, while developers moderate price reductions, this time a variety of factors, coupled with the release of rigid demand, three factors added together, so that trading volume warmer, and the reasonable decline in house prices is relatedDepartment. That is to say, lower house prices to increase trading volume, some time ago is such a situation. On average, the prices of cities are year-on-year, the chain began to decline, but when the stability, trading volume has a certain recovery, everyone confidence also recovered, this time does not necessarily continue to decline in house prices, trading volume continues to rise, these two do not necessarily play a reverse role, do not forget that there is another balance between investment and consumption, That is to say that real estate is an asset, the asset has a price, in the asset price, there are also chasing up and down the process. What do you mean, chasing the rise and falling? Your moderate increase in trading volume will rise, buy up do not buy, and is not blindly reduce trading volume has risen, there may be under certain circumstances, you moderate price increases, trading volume will rise, so the rise and fall is normal. But I don't think it's going to be a bubble now, because what is the cause of the bubble?　　Bubble is mainly a large number of investors, investors, the admission of speculation, the price is seriously out of value, this situation bubble, and now our country's economic situation is also at the bottom of the stable, has not yet to a large increase.　　Moderator: But now there is still a large number of stock houses.　　Niemesen: Yes, the inventory is not resolved, there is no speculation, and the policy does not support speculation, now all policies are not supported speculation room.　　Moderator: According to your understanding of the situation, the stock room digest how? Niemesen: Stock room was last year four quarter and the first quarter of this year the most worrying thing, one is the volume can come back, one is the stock room, to inventory can be solved, mainly these two indicators. Now it seems that two indicators are more optimistic than originally estimated, trading volume has been restored, the stock of stock has not continued to go up, from 160 million square meters, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, and did not go so, so I think the stock room is expected to be more optimistic than originally expected more than 20 months,　　Now we expect more than 10 months, so I think if the issue of inventory can be properly optimistic to put down, investment will come up.　　Moderator: How about the new plate? Niemesen: These two are proportional.　　If there is inventory, inventory has not been resolved, why to start.　　Moderator: Continue to reduce. Niemesen: Yes.　　Only the inventory continues to reduce, the stock room reduces, the new start quantity will increase, if this aspect is optimistic, that aspect is also optimistic.　　Moderator: Thank you for bringing us the point. Niemesen: Thank you.