Oil price adjustment expected to warm up funds ambush Sinopec waiting for good

After the previous Zeng held 5.134 million shares, last week, the 9-account increase of 14.118 million shares up to the weekend, by the fund and other institutional investors placed great expectations of refined oil prices have not seen changes.　　A-share market, Sinopec firm four trading days after the start of the continuous correction in Thursday, but throughout the week, the stock price or a small rise of 1.44%, micro-win the market.　　May 8, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Oil price management measures (trial)", so far, Sinopec has risen 6.11%.　　"It depends on whether the recent price adjustment can come out, if not out, the credibility of the system will be greatly reduced," China Merchants Securities and petrochemical industry analyst Jiu Xiaofeng to the "securities daily" reporter said. However, at present, the Fund and other major funds for refined oil prices are still full of expectations. According to the Compass main radar data, last week, the shares of the nine-bank account (holding more than 10 million) positions continued to increase the proportion of 0.11% to 69.03%, about 14.118 million shares, two quarters since the proportion of the account position has increased by 0.17%,　　By 21.818 million shares, the net inflow of nine accounts to Sinopec exceeded 200 million yuan in terms of the median price. "It's not really a new policy, before the relevant policies have been introduced, now this" oil price management Method (Trial) "is equivalent to the original policy, so the market response is not necessarily so enthusiastic," an industry analyst told the Securities Daily Reporter, "Only oil prices are expected to be still in,　　Sinopec and PetroChina still have room to rise. Analysts generally believe that, in accordance with the "Oil price management Method (Trial)" provisions, the current domestic product tons price still has 500 yuan to increase the space, but the ambiguity of the policy and the recent international crude oil price correction caused by the abrupt increase in oil price changes.　　Will the funds who are secretly collecting chips and waiting patiently for trading opportunities end up just being empty and happy? Since the second quarter of 8, 9 file accounts increased by 24.45 million shares since the beginning of this year to implement the oil tax reform, the Fund and other major investment in Sinopec. Compass main radar data show that the first quarter of this year (500,000-1 million), seven stalls (holdings 1 million-5 million),　　Eight stalls (holding 5 million-10 million) and nine (holding more than 10 million) the total increase in the stock of the shares of 0.74%, about 94.973 million shares, of which nine accounts increased the proportion of the maximum of 0.27%, and 34.662 million shares. At the end of March, most of China's petrochemical chips have been held in the hands of funds and other institutions. Wind data show that in late March, the institutions holding Sinopec included 45 funds, an insurance company, a brokerage and a Social Security fund portfolio. One quarter at the end of the most positions of the fund is the theme industry, the total shareholding 65 million shares, for its fifth circulating shareholders, in addition to the Fund of the Tong, Shanghai 50ETF and the 50 and the next to reach the division in the seventh-Ten circulating shareholders. The second quarter with the international crude oil prices continue to climb, oil price adjustment is expected to start again, at the same time, the main fund continues to collect Chinese petrochemical chips.　　According to the Compass main radar data, since April, the stock of eight and nine-account positions increased by 0.02 and 0.17%, a total of 24.451 million shares. Sinopec's beautiful performance in the first quarter also allowed the fund to eat up the reassurance.　　According to the company's 2009 quarterly report, this January-March, the company achieved a net profit of 11.2 billion yuan, the earnings per share of 0.13 yuan, an increase of 85%, of which the refinery plate operating profit for the first quarter of 7.3 billion yuan, and the upstream and chemical industry plate operating profit of 2.76 billion yuan and 2.799 billion yuan respectively. Policy triggers price adjustments expected again May 8, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Oil prices management measures (trial)", which stipulates that: when the international market for 22 consecutive trading days moving average price changes over 4%, the corresponding adjustment of domestic product prices, and domestic product prices since March 25 adjustment,　　The average movement of international crude oil has risen more than 4% per cent for 22 consecutive days compared to the benchmark day for price adjustment. "We expect the current maximum retail price of diesel oil will be increased by 500 yuan/ton, adjusted to 8.8% and 10% respectively, because the past 22 working days of international crude oil prices relative to the last increase us$8/bbl, up 12.9%", Zhang Jintao, an analyst at CICC, said in a subsequent report.　　China oil director in Jiemin on May 12 in the 2008-year shareholder meeting also said, according to the new mechanism of domestic oil retail sales of the highest price is expected to increase by 500 yuan/ton. In the A-share market, investors have placed high hopes on the price of refined oil. Since May, Sinopec has been the shock of higher, after May 8 is accelerated on the attack, the same day China Petrochemical pulled out a changyang, up to 4.61%, the same day turnover rate also from the previous day 0.59 jumped to 1.01, the transaction amount also enlarged to 1.33 billion yuan. According to the compass, the main radar data show that since May 8, the shares of the nine-position account positions have increased by 0.11%, total 14.118 million shares.　　The stock has risen 6.11% per cent since the oil price management scheme (trial). Price correction of crude oil prices, the uncertainties of the policy and the recent pullback in the country's crude oil prices have made the prospect of oil price inflation variable.　　"The wording is more ambiguous, how to adjust the specific or not so clear," Huatai Securities and petrochemical industry analyst Shunjie in the Securities daily newspaper reporter interview. Zhang Jintao and others said that although the publication of the oil price management scheme reduces the policy risk in the refining industry, the policy risk has not been completely eliminated, which stipulates that the domestic gas and diesel prices can be adjusted accordingly "when the average price of crude oil in the international market moves more than 4% per 22 consecutive working days","Adjustable" means that the price adjustment is not automatic, the NDRC still has the power to adjust prices, and the management method does not mention the specific oil price calculation methods, including the crude oil price benchmark, average processing costs and appropriate profits and other factors are not clearly stated. China Merchants Securities and petrochemical industry analyst Jiu Xiaofeng also believes that the promulgation of this method means that the pricing mechanism of refined oil has been established from the system, the last time when the three crude oil 22 daily average is roughly between 44 and 45 U.S. dollars, but now has reached 51, 52 U.S. dollars, domestic oil price adjustment can be period, is expected in the recent, "　　It depends on whether the recent price adjustment can come out, if not, the credibility of the system will be greatly reduced, "he told the Securities Daily," the reporter said. International crude oil prices have begun to get a correction in recent days as markets await a rise in oil prices.　　WTI crude oil prices from May 13 after the breakthrough of the 60 U.S. dollar mark began to callback, May 15 per barrel closed to 58.62 U.S. dollars. The former unnamed analyst told the Securities Daily: "The fundamentals are not too much support for oil prices, but both US inventory data and Chinese import data exceed market expectations, with us inventories less than market expectations, and China's imports of crude oil in April, due to reserve factors, are relatively large, in fact,　　Oil consumption is not as big as expected, and on the other side, the recent weakening of the dollar has also contributed to the strengthening of crude prices. In addition, the person also indicated that, if the implementation of the oil Management Scheme (trial) was really initiated, for Sinopec, downstream profitability is guaranteed, but it can also be said that the profit is basically locked, because the oil prices will follow the fluctuations in crude oil prices adjusted, may be higher, may be lowered;　　Crude oil prices are less resilient to Sinopec than PetroChina. First half of the year's results 50% exceed expectations to see the oil price in fact, after the March 25 crude oil price hike, Sinopec two quarterly results continue to be good basically has been very conclusive. In its first quarterly report, the company predicted that, due to the implementation of the oil price and tax reform in 2009, the domestic refining business reversed years of loss, the scale advantage of Sinopec refining business, cost advantages and the integration of Sinopec and management advantages of the full play, to become an important pillar of corporate profitability,　　The first half of the year's results are expected to increase more than 50%.　　Shunjie also said that Sinopec's performance is expected to continue to rise in the two quarter, as both the company's refining business and its chemicals business are picking up, especially as the latter has established a bottom in the first quarter, and will pick up in both price and demand. China Petrochemical energy analyst Lichen said that Sinopec's two-quarter earnings could rise, on the one hand, because the average price of crude oil in the two quarter to improve upstream earnings, the other side of the oil sales will be restored, marketing performance. Prior to the company's latest quarterly data show that the first quarter of Sinopec's marketing department profit has fallen sharply, EBIT from the four quarter of 20087.5 billion yuan slid to 3.7 billion yuan. At the same time, lichen also pointed out whether the chemical profitability can be sustained, and the oil product mechanism ambiguous, but also to Sinopec's refining-oriented business model brought uncertainty.