Outlook article: Macro-adjustment decisions under crisis 700 days

The unprecedented global financial crisis is a severe test of the ability of Chinese policymakers to harness the complex situation of economic and social development in the summer of 2007, the U.S. "subprime crisis" began to spread to the United States, Europe, Japan and other major financial markets in the world so far, caused by the international financial crisis, has been transmitted from the developed countries to emerging market countries and developing countries, from the financial field to the real economy, the scope of the spread, the depth of impact, the impact of the intensity of the great, for history is rare.　　Under the background of economic globalization, this crisis has been transmitted to our country, which makes it impossible for our country to stay aloof from it. The impact of this crisis on our country, has the characteristics of Echelon progressive. The CPC Central Committee, with Hu Jintao as General secretary, pays close attention to the trend of crisis development, scientifically analyzing and accurately judging the changes of China's economic situation in each stage.　　With the development of the situation and the gradual appearance of the impact, in order to deal with the crisis, the central government to adjust the macroeconomic policy decisively, timely adoption of a series of measures to promote stable and rapid economic development, fully demonstrated the active response to the severe challenges of the crisis, to control the complex situation of economic and social development Establishing a sense of urgency to deal with the crisis before the June 2008, the "subprime crisis" spread and spread, the international financial situation changed dramatically.　　The crisis has a certain negative impact on our country's economy, mainly as follows: the value of financial institutions, enterprises and individuals held by China's foreign financial assets has shrunk, some enterprises engaged in oil and foreign exchange derivative products have suffered losses, and the stock market, as a barometer of market economy, has seen sharp fluctuations.　　It should be said that this impact and loss of our economy as a whole, or relatively limited. This stage, from the domestic economic operation of their own situation, to solve the overheating and inflation trends in China's economic work is facing the primary task. On the basis of analyzing the situation at home and abroad, the central Government proposes that the macro-control, which has been implemented 4 years ago, should be carried out with prudent fiscal policy and tight monetary policy, with emphasis on "double prevention": preventing the economy from overheating and preventing obvious inflation.　　At the same time, the central government needs to pay close attention to the development situation of the crisis, especially the risk and impact on our country's economic development. In his speech at the Central Economic Work conference in December 2007, Mr. Hu made clear the issue of the "subprime mortgage crisis" in the United States, stressing that all kinds of uncertainties and potential risks in the international economy, especially in financial markets, are increasing. He pointed out that the outbreak of the "subprime crisis" in the United States and its impact shows that with the rapid expansion of financial innovation and financial derivative transactions, the financial risk of concealment, sudden, proliferation intensified. Some developed countries have used financial advantages to shift risk to developing countries, exacerbating global financial instability.　　Once the global financial crisis, triggering the world economic recession, will have a negative impact on China's economic development and economic security.　　After a short time, Hu Jintao highlighted the need to establish a sense of hardship in his speech to the members and alternates of the Central Committee in the course of studying and implementing the party's 17 major spiritual seminars. He was alarmed to note that in the world multi-polarization andIn the international environment of the Deep development of economic globalization and the obvious increase of various unstable uncertainties, in the international and domestic contradictions and problems intertwined, mutual interaction in the reality of the situation, can be foreseen and unpredictable risks increased, the occurrence of such a problem or even greater risk of the possibility of not only exists, but also very realistic. We must have adequate estimates and be prepared to the fullest. For example, the Asian financial crisis as a serious financial turmoil, and so on.　　It is better to estimate the risks and difficulties, and not to be at a loss in the event of an estimated shortfall. 2008 years ago, China's economic development also encountered unexpected difficulties and challenges-natural disasters frequently, the first south of the rain and snow, followed by the shock of the "5·12" Wenchuan earthquake.　　Crisis moment, the Central Committee of the National Power, earthquake relief, to show the world the Chinese nation's strong cohesion and fighting force. The strength of the macro-adjustment policy in the past 2008 years, International energy and food prices are high, the world economic growth has slowed markedly. The impact of the crisis on China's economy began to show, coastal exports and economic growth decline.　　At this time, the domestic economic operation of some prominent contradictions and problems more prominent: China's prices have risen sharply, CPI high, inflation intensified. In mid-June, the Central and State Council convened the provincial and municipal departments and the central authorities responsible for the meeting of the Comrades, to do a good job of earthquake relief and rehabilitation, the Olympic Games, and put forward the overall requirements and deployment, and studied the economic problems.　　At the meeting, Hu Jintao put forward that we should put inflation in the prominent position according to the changes of domestic and foreign economic environment, and grasp the enforcement and rhythm of the tight monetary policy. He again stressed that we should pay attention to the prevention of economic risks, and pointed out that in the current international and domestic economic situation in the context of profound changes, we should strengthen the prevention of economic risks, to be prepared. To further strengthen financial regulation, we should pay close attention to the new characteristics of international capital flow, fully understand the abrupt characteristics of financial crisis, be alert to the trend of short-term capital flow and international exchange rate change, promote the healthy development of capital market, keep the real estate market stable, properly grasp the rhythm and range of financial opening, and prevent financial systemic risks,　　Ensure financial security effectively. Based on the comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign economic situation, July, the central decision, timely adjustment of macro-control efforts, the first task is to maintain stable and rapid economic development, control prices too fast rise, to avoid large economic fluctuations.　　At the same time, in order to deal with the impact of the crisis, the central government adopted some targeted fiscal and financial measures, began to adjust the export tax rebate policy, to ensure the stability of the domestic financial system, and closely with other national macroeconomic policy coordination and cooperation. July 25, the Politburo convened a meeting. The meeting pointed out that the uncertain instability factors in the current international environment have increased, and some contradictions in domestic economic operation have been more prominent, and the challenges and difficulties in maintaining steady and rapid economic development have increased. To keep a clear mind, to enhance the sense of hardship, to be a solid responseThe preparation of difficult situations. The meeting made it clear that to maintain a stable and rapid economic development, control prices too fast rise as the second half of the first task of macro-control, to curb inflation in a prominent position.　　Continue to strengthen and improve macro-control, to maintain the predictability of macro-control, targeted, flexible, grasp the focus of control, rhythm, strength. From "Double Guard" to "one protection and one control", this is the first adjustment of China's macroeconomic policy in the 2008.　　At the same time, focus on solving the domestic economic outstanding contradictions and problems, targeted to take measures to respond to the crisis, fully embodies the central "see Things early", which was later to deal with the serious impact of the crisis laid the foundation, won the time to win the initiative. Once again decisively adjust the policy of macro adjustment in mid-September 2008, the "subprime crisis" developed into an international financial crisis, marked by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States.　　The financial system in the US and Europe is mired in serious failure of financing and large liquidity shortages, the world's major raw materials and transport prices have fallen sharply, the real economy has slowed sharply, the international economic situation has plunged.　　The adverse impact and impact of the crisis on China's economy have been aggravated, especially after the September, the difficulties of our country's economic development are becoming more and more obvious, and the economic running situation has changed greatly. In the third quarter, China's GDP growth rate was only 9%.　　According to statistics published by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's macroeconomic prosperity index fell by 10.6 points in October compared with September, for the first time in recent years less than 100; October-November, the high CPI in the middle of the year for two consecutive months below 4%, inflationary pressure significantly weakened, while the PPI was 3.2%, 2%. The real economy, especially the industry, is under great pressure. The profit margin of industrial enterprises in November was only 4.9%. The collapse of some small and medium-sized processing enterprises has aggravated the increase in unemployment and the return of migrant workers. China is facing the double pressure of slowing economic growth and serious employment situation.　　To solve the growing economic downward pressure has become the urgent task of China's economic development.　　Such a complex and changeable grim situation, so that domestic and foreign public opinion for a time of the world economy, China's basic trend of development of the mixed pi. The central government calmly analyzes the latest trends and long-term trends of world economic development and makes scientific judgments: the pattern of world economic growth will change, but the trend of economic globalization in depth will not change; the duty to maintain the normal operation of the market will be strengthened, but the basic role of the market in resource allocation will not change　　International monetary diversification will be promoted, but the status of the United States dollar as the main international currency has not changed fundamentally, the overall strength of developing countries will increase, but the developed countries ' overall national strength and core competitiveness of the leadership pattern has not changed. The central government proposed that the crisis has not only raised unprecedented challenges to China's development, but also brought unprecedented opportunities: The crisis led to a large reduction of external demand, objectively for China to expand domestic demand and adjust the structure ofFor the huge pressure of inverted mechanism, the sharp deceleration of world economic growth causes the international energy resources and asset prices to fall down, which brings favorable conditions for the exploitation and utilization of overseas energy resources and the enhancement of scientific and technological strength. The crisis has exerted great pressure on the developed countries to maintain the stability of international financial markets　　The reform of the international financial system has put forward new demands and provided a favorable opportunity for our country to strengthen international cooperation and seek more national interests. Based on a dispassionate and objective analysis of the international situation, the central government has put forward the basic ideas of "setting up a World vision, starting from the national conditions, comprehensive analysis, accurate judgment and positive response": adhering to the scientific concept of development, seizing the important strategic opportunity period of China's development, changing the pressure as the motive force, the challenge as the opportunity , adhering to the reform direction of socialist market economy, strengthen initiative and sense of urgency, promote the change of development mode and structure adjustment, realize good and fast development, adjust the focal point and intensity of macro-control, pay attention to the growth, Pao Minsheng and stabilize, combine the guarantee growth with expanding domestic demand and adjusting structure; adhere to the basic State policy of opening to the outside,　　To co-ordinate the overall situation of domestic and international, to increase domestic demand and stabilize external demand, strengthen international coordination and cooperation, better reflect the interests of developing countries and maximize the maintenance and development of our interests.　　Under the guidance of this idea, in October, the central government again to adjust the macroeconomic policy, decisively put the focus of macro-control to prevent economic growth too fast decline, the implementation of a positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy. With the experience of implementing active fiscal policy in the 1998, the central government has more confidence in this round of macroeconomic regulation and more mature in its application.　　In order to quickly reverse the trend of China's economic downturn, the central government explicitly requested "to be quick, the fist to be heavy, measures to be accurate, work to be real." This is the second adjustment of China's macroeconomic policy in the 2008.　　"Decision-making, quick-shot" is the distinctive feature of this adjustment.　　October 9-12th, the CPC 17 plenary in the analysis of China's economic situation on the basis of a multi-pronged, effective response, the adoption of flexible and prudent macroeconomic policies, and focus on expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, to maintain economic stability, financial stability, capital market stability, the overall social stability. Hu Jintao said at the meeting that the economic situation must be analyzed and judged in accordance with the central government, and the economic work should be fully done to maintain steady and rapid economic development.　　We should make a better assumption of the difficulties that may be encountered on the way forward, make the measures more comprehensive, and make the work more detailed. He stressed that to grasp the focus of macro-control, rhythm, strength, flexible and accurate to solve the problem. We will continue to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, and enhance residents ' consumption capacity. We must continue to pay close attention to the changes in the international economic environment, especially the potential major risk factors, improve the economic security mechanism, especially to improve financial security, energy security, and effectively safeguard our interests. We should pay attention to the influence of the unfavorable factors of international economic environment on some enterprises, and put the guarantee and improvement of people's livelihood in a more suddenOut of position. In the ensuing reduction of bank reserve requirements, lower deposit and loan interest rates, reduce corporate tax burden, such as a series of coping with the crisis "combination boxing", the most forceful, the most domestic and international concern and hot, is the November State Council executive meeting deployed in the department to further expand domestic demand, promote economic growth of 10 measures, which the international community called " China's 4 trillion economic stimulus plan.　　It took only a week for the 10 measures to emerge from gestation. These 10 measures reflect the characteristics of this active fiscal policy: more attention to people's livelihood, infiltration of the scientific concept of people-oriented, at least five of the ten measures related to it; for the first time, the reform of urban and rural residents ' income and the reform of tax system should be included in the measures to expand domestic demand.　　, combining the promotion of economic growth with the adjustment structure, and the close combination of expanding investment and stimulating consumption, embodies the close combination of the immediate goal and the long-term goal, which is beneficial to expanding domestic demand, promoting growth and enhancing the stamina of economic development. At the same time of "burn" and "race against the Clock" at home, our leaders frequently attend international conferences and foreign visits. "Voice from China" has aroused wide concern of the international community.　　China's fight against the crisis at the same time in the international and domestic two "war."　　In late October, Hu Jintao participated in the seventh ASEM Summit and put forward the constructive ideas of "Asia, Europe, cooperation and mutual benefit", pointing out that China will continue to work with the international community to maintain international financial stability and economic stability in a responsible manner.　　November 15, Hu Jintao in the group of 20 leaders in financial markets and the World Economic Summit to "work together to tide over the difficulties," put forward four proposals to reform the international financial system, with special emphasis on safeguarding the interests of developing countries, and to clarify China's attitude and measures to deal with the crisis. At the APEC Business Leaders ' Summit on November 21, he worked together to to promote economic development, stressed that the international community should carefully summarize the lessons of the financial crisis and, on the basis of full consultation among all stakeholders, grasp the direction of a fair, just, inclusive and orderly new international financial order,　　Adhere to the principle of comprehensiveness, balance, gradual and actual effect, carry out the necessary reform to the international financial system, and create an institutional environment conducive to the healthy development of the global economy.　　At the 16th APEC leaders ' informal meeting on November 22, he put forward five points of consensus, responsibility, exchange and cooperation, normative guidance and coordinated action on the outstanding issues of international economic and social development.　　Based on the situation that the international financial crisis has not yet bottomed out and the adverse effects on our economy will continue to be judged by the end of the year, the central government will make strategic arrangements for the 2009 economic work. November 28, the Politburo convened a meeting to put forward to maintain stable and relatively rapid economic development as the 2009 economic work of the first task. The meeting stressed the need to better integrate the growth, expansion of domestic demand and structural adjustment;Policy and continue to implement positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy.　　At a symposium held by the Central People's Party on the same day, Hu Jintao reiterated his wish to "make the difficulties more fully, prepare them more carefully" and put forward six requirements for firm confidence and good work. The Central Economic Working Conference held in early December further clarified that economic work in 2009 should focus on growth, expanding domestic demand and adjusting structure, and the expected target of economic growth was about 8%.　　The meeting pointed out that in the context of a marked slowdown in world economic growth, the achievement of such economic growth targets is conducive to enhancing confidence and stabilizing expectations, and to expanding employment in urban and rural areas, increasing residents ' incomes and maintaining social stability. At the meeting, Hu Jintao pointed out that the current international financial situation is complex and changeable and perilous. In essence, the crisis is caused by the improper macroeconomic policies of the developed capitalist countries such as America and the lack of government supervision, which is the result of the unsustainable growth pattern of the long-term debt consumption in America. He stressed that the ability to maintain stable and rapid economic growth is a major test of our capacity to harness the complex situation, but also a major test of the party's ability to govern.　　Be afraid of any risk, not be confused by any interference, change the pressure to drive, the challenge for the opportunity. He called for the maintenance of stable and rapid economic development as the first task of economic work next year, focusing on the growth of the economy, expanding domestic demand as the fundamental way to maintain growth, accelerating the transformation of development mode and structural adjustment as the main direction of growth, and deepening key areas and key links to reform,　　To improve the level of opening-up as a strong driving force for growth, to improve people's livelihood as the starting point and the foothold of growth.　　To improve the implementation of the "package plan" of the 2009, is entering the new century, China's economic development of the most difficult year. At the beginning of the year, under the impact of the "financial tsunami", the world economy plunged into a severe recession. Comparatively speaking, due to the rapid implementation of a series of response measures, China's economic operation began to show some positive signs.　　But overall, the real economy of our country is still seriously impacted by the crisis, the economic downward pressure is still quite huge. Facing the severe economic situation, the measures must be perfected, the efforts must be intensified and the work must be done. On the New Year's Day in 2009, Hu Jintao reiterated the task and focus of economic work in the National Political Consultative Conference, and put forward the request of "Facing the difficulty, striving for reform and striving for total difficulties". In the middle of January, he stressed at the third plenary meeting of the Central Disciplinary Commission that the current response to the international financial crisis, to maintain stable and rapid economic development, especially the party's comrades, especially leading cadres to establish firm confidence, Shing work.　　It is necessary to estimate the difficulties more fully, consider the response measures more comprehensively, and focus on capturing and grasping the rare development opportunities from the changing situation. In the first few months of 2009, China continued to carry out active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy in the macro-economic level, and matched and perfected the measures. On monetary policy, bank interest rates and deposit preparationGold rate and so on. New loans in the first quarter of about 4.58 trillion, a significant increase in year-on-year. In the financial policy, in addition to the implementation of the 2008 "4 trillion" and other measures, but also launched the Shanghai "Two Center" construction Planning, the West Coast region revitalization planning.　　In this way, from October 2008 to the beginning of 2009, China has gradually formed a relatively complete response to the financial crisis, to maintain a steady and rapid development of the economy, known as the "package plan." This "package" includes 4 aspects: first, the large-scale government investment and structural tax reduction; The second is a wide range of industrial adjustment and revitalization of the planning, involving the ten most important relationship between the livelihood of the major industries; The third is the strong science and technology support (ready to invest 100 billion yuan in 2 years, accelerate the promotion of scientific and technological special planning, To provide support and stamina for economic development); Four is to greatly improve the level of social security (medical health reform only, the plan in 3 years to invest 850 billion yuan).　　These 4 aspects are interrelated and indivisible, which embodies the combination of the plan and the characteristics of the treatment of specimens. In late February, the "Top ten Industrial Restructuring and revitalization plan" was launched.　　This is China's new issue of a response to the "punch", when the relevant media called "the biggest aspect of the global economy."　　Among the top ten industries covered by this plan, 8 are industries, including heavy industry and light industry, which are more important in the national economy and have a greater impact on other related industries, as well as industries that have been hit by the financial crisis. Statistics show that, in 2007, in addition to logistics, 9 industries in the industrial value of the total industrial value added to the proportion of nearly 80%, accounting for 1/3 of the share of GDP.　　In terms of employment, the top ten industry workers accounted for about 30% of the country's urban employment. Looking at this plan, the Government emphasizes to solve the problems that have plagued China's industrial development for a long time: in finance and taxation, the industry is "reduced to pressure" by adjusting taxes and fees, and in the financial aspect, the industry is "loosened up" by enlarging the financing channels and credit scale, encouraging independent innovation, adjusting and upgrading industrial structure and　　This plan has fully embodied the demand that the market pushes the mechanism to promote the structural adjustment and the development mode change, and its implementation will undoubtedly be conducive to the transition from export-driven to domestic demand.　　Some media commented that the profound adjustment of China's industrial structure will begin, and in a short period of 40 days or so, the intense planning of such a large scale shows the Chinese government's determination and executive power to maintain steady and rapid economic development. February 23, the Politburo convened a meeting to discuss the State Council to bring the second session of the National People's Congress to consider the government's work report. The meeting proposed that we should have a deep understanding of the severity and complexity of the international and domestic economic situation, strengthen the crisis consciousness and the sense of hardship, and overcome the difficulties. We must grasp the principle of expanding domestic demand, keeping growth, adjusting structure and level, grasping reform, increasing vigor, and promoting harmony. To deal with the international financial crisis, promote stable and rapid economic development as the main line, overall planning, highlight the focus, and implement a "package plan" to promote steady and rapid economic development. On the same day, Hu Jintao, in his 12th session of the Politburo, stressed that the harder it is, the more confidence must be strengthened.　　To insist on asking the people, asking for the people, and asking for the people, the policy measures and the work deployment of the growth, Pao Minsheng and stability are more realistic and more in line with the demands of the masses. March, the second session of the National People's Congress held. The conference will "maintain GDP growth of about 8%" as the main goal of our economic work in the 2009, and make overall deployment and principle requirements for this year's work. The meeting considered that in such an international and domestic situation, it is quite difficult to achieve the goal of "protecting eight", but it is possible to achieve it through efforts. We have the confidence, the conditions and the ability to overcome the challenges.　　In a press conference after the meeting, Wen stressed that the warm heart is economic, all Chinese people must be firm in their confidence to warm China's economy. It is highly appraised by the international community to see things early, to make decisions, to be strong, to measure--the ability of the central government to demonstrate in response to the crisis. More importantly, the "package" policy effect of coping with the crisis is at the beginning of the economic operation, and our country has withstood the test of major challenges. In the first quarter, China's GDP growth rate of 6.1%, although the growth has fallen sharply, but in the global economy is a withered situation is "a solo show", called a big bright spot. According to statistics, in January-April, China's investment growth accelerated, urban fixed assets investment growth of 30.5% per cent, consumption faster growth, social consumer goods retail total real growth of 16.3%;　　To achieve urban new employment 3.65 million people. At the beginning of April, Hu Jintao attended the second financial summit of the leaders of the group of 20 and issued a speech "work together, in the same boat", elaborated the position of dealing with the financial crisis, reformed the international financial institutions and system, and introduced the measures taken by China to deal with the crisis. He pointed out that the measures had now yielded initial results and showed positive signs. This shows that China's response to the idea is realistic, the policy is positive and effective. Although the adverse effects of the international financial crisis on China's real economy continue to present, the basic situation and long-term trend of China's economic development have not changed radically, supporting the foundation of sustained and rapid economic development in China. He said confidently that after the winter, there will be a revival of all things and a spring of renewal.　　As long as we strengthen our confidence and work together, we will be able to overcome the severe challenges of the international financial crisis. At present, the impact of the international financial crisis on China has not yet bottomed out, the economic development of uncertain and unstable factors, the foundation of China's stable economic recovery is not stable. Therefore, the task of coping with the crisis and keeping the steady and rapid development of the economy has not been completed, and the countermeasures are still being introduced. In April, after the introduction of a number of bright spots and breakthroughs in the new round of medical and health system reform program, early June, and announced to the car home appliances, "Old for new" realThe implementation of the subsidy scheme, and proposed five measures to strengthen employment. The central government said it would formulate new measures to deal with the changes in the economic situation. -(Author unit: CPC Central Committee of documentation)