People's Daily: How to see the volume of credit

The central bank announced 8th late June yuan loans increased by 1.53 trillion yuan. The first half of the new credit up to 7.37 trillion yuan, more than any year in the history of the total amount of delivery-the amount of days of credit (economic focus six months looking back to see the economy) the first half of the new credit trend chart.　　Photo Source: People's daily.　　The credit blowout is one of the most spectacular sights of the banking sector in the first half. Extraordinary period, very means.　　At the time of the international financial crisis, 7.37 trillion yuan loans helped boost confidence in the economic recovery, adding to the increase in domestic demand and increasing firewood. With the rapid growth of credit, the society has produced inflationary expectations.　　But experts say the surge in credit does not necessarily create real inflation.　　The surge in credit in June was mainly the result of the credit expansion of small and medium banks and the "Rush point" of banks 1.53 trillion yuan!　　Although the market is widely expected to increase credit in June more than the May 664.5 billion yuan, but when the central bank announced the "1.53 trillion yuan" this huge number, the market is still surprised!　　It was the third-largest credit peak of the year, after March and January, with new credit up to 7.37 trillion trillion yuan in the first half, more than any year since the founding of the New China. "The surge in credit in June has been linked to a steady pick-up in China's economic stability and increased demand for micro-finance," said Guo, director of the China Banking Research Center at the Central University of Finance and economics. "Especially as the housing market recovers, personal housing loans and real estate development loans are growing fast." "Guo said that for some time, the large amount of bank credit to ease the financial strains of real estate developers, while the public's inflation expectations have risen, coupled with some banks to loosen the restrictive measures on two of mortgages, to enlarge the demand for housing, thereby pushing up house prices. "However, such a rise is not based on the demand for home purchase, easy to form a ' castle in the Clouds ', in the future, if prices fall, bank loans may face risks."　　"People in the industry believe that the credit surge in June, in addition to the increase in loan demand, the more important" push hand "is the bank itself. "In June, four state-owned commercial banks had less than 500 billion credits and 1.53 trillion of new loans came mainly from small and medium-sized banks," said a person in the credit department of a state-owned commercial bank. In the first half of the credit "charge", the state-owned banks are the main force. Now, the credit of four state-owned banks has gone well beyond last year's total credit, starting to grasp the pace and actively control the launch. After the big banks freed up market space, the small and medium-sized banks that lagged behind in the first round of "charge" began to struggle to expand. "The phenomenon is likened to ' big banks at ease, small bank sprint '. On the other hand, the surge in credit in June was closely linked to the bank's "Rush".　　"June is the month of the first half of the year, and the banks are used to the ' Rush Point ' this month," the person said. Six-year index is a special value of the bank index-from the perspective of business performance, the year can generate interest income of the general investmentPut in the first three quarters, so it can be said that the first half of the loan growth rate determines the bank's annual interest income level.　　From the internal assessment point of view, the six months of credit is directly related to the effectiveness of the bank.　　From the perspective of market image, many banks are listed companies, whether the newspaper is bright, depends largely on the first half of the credit growth. From the point of view of local pressure, "now the local government is very clever, they do not intervene directly in finance, but in half a year will meet, inform, see how much you credit." The pressure on banks is great because our branches are on the site of others and the government has a lot of credit resources in hand.　　"A grassroots bank person admits. The surge in credit does not necessarily create real inflation.　　7.37 trillion yuan loans, let people happy in the credit blowout, is the first half of the banking sector the most spectacular scenery. Extraordinary period, very means.　　At the time of the international financial crisis, 7.37 trillion-yuan loans are conducive to stimulating investment demand, to expand domestic demand, guarantee growth and increase firewood pay rise; At the same time, the modern economy with finance as the core, credit to a certain extent is "confidence" synonymous, 7.37 trillion yuan loan is conducive to the collapse of deflationary expectations,　　"In fact, with the rapid credit growth, there is now an inflationary outlook in society," Guo said, "but the surge in credit does not necessarily create real inflation". In theory, he says, the surge in credit could induce inflation.　　But in reality, for some time to come, domestic downstream enterprises will still be in overcapacity, will effectively curb the formation of inflation; in the international market, before the global economic recovery, the rise in commodity prices, driven only by the depreciation of the dollar, will be unsustainable and will not be transmitted to China in the form of imported inflation.　　In fact, the July international oil price has fallen by five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative decline of 10%, affected by the uncertain economic outlook and poor employment data from the latest US and European countries. 7.37 trillion yuan loans, but also let people happy with worry.　　Structurally, these loans are mainly directed to government projects such as railways, highways and airports, and loans to small and medium-sized enterprises are still few. In quality, banks have favored government projects and, in order to share the soup, some banks are willing to relax loan reviews and even lower the lending threshold. In doing so, there seems to be no risk in the short term, however, in the long run, some local government's investment projects are not high, the recovery period is longer, it is difficult to guarantee the future repayment of debt; On the other hand, government project loans are mostly based on "government credit", and the bank's future disposable financial resources and hidden liabilities are often difficult to obtain timely and　　Comprehensive and accurate information, once the local financial difficulties, will undoubtedly affect the quality of credit assets of banks.　　In the direction of flow, not excluding a part of the credit funds in various ways into the stock market, property markets and other assets.　　Experts believe that the second half of the credit will stabilize the decline in some months may even have negative growth in the second half, can the credit blowout continue? "Credit in the second half of the year will steadily decline, expected to newIncreasing credit is most likely between 9 trillion and 10 trillion. Guo said, "Last November, December, the rapid surge in credit, so the same period this year, the possibility of negative growth in credit." Recently, the central bank's Monetary policy Committee two-quarter meeting suggested that the next stage should implement moderately loose monetary policy, maintain policy continuity and stability, and guide the reasonable growth of monetary credit.　　To increase the "three rural", small and medium-sized enterprises and other weak financial support, strict control of high energy consumption, high pollution and overcapacity industry enterprises in loans. Yan Min, general manager of China Construction Bank's business department, believes that the current economic development has been positive changes, but endogenous growth momentum to be strengthened, so the second half of the moderately loose monetary policy should not be changed.　　At the same time, the structure should be optimized to avoid potential risks in the light of the problems in the credit surge. Guo suggested that the second half of the regulatory department can strengthen the "window guidance" to commercial banks, the rapid growth in some areas to make risk warning, but also through the open market operation and other means of fine-tuning.