Rogers: China's stock market is already in a bull market

Wen/Xu Limei China has undergone great changes, I believe that the bull market will certainly come, but when it is specific, this is a "different" problem. Jim Rogers (Jim Rogers) came to the beautiful spring of Beijing in April with his biography "Crystal Ball" and some investment predictions. The "Investment Knight", who once traveled around the world on two motorcycles, has remained energetic and highly sensitive to the global economic outlook despite his age of nearly 7. From the age of 26 to Wall Street, and with Soros to create a "quantum fund", the first to advocate investment in China, investment in Asia, Rogers's experience is full of legendary, but also controversial. In any case, his arrival attracted a large number of media. This time, he only six-year-old daughter Lele, also in front of the public generous, decent appearance, her lively, cheerful, and better Chinese level, to everyone left a deep impression. From Lele, you can see that Rogers advocated learning Chinese, investment in China's philosophy is carried out.　　He takes Lele as an example, tells everybody how to develop the child's financial ability--to let the child from childhood to make money, form the good habit of saving, for a rainy, for example Lele has several piggy bank, this is to let the child know to make money is not easy. A series of predictions by the US stock market collapse in 1986, the 1989 Japanese stock market bubble burst, the 1998 early warning Internet bubble, and the 2005 warning of the imminent collapse of the US real estate bubble appeared to have been fulfilled. This time he came to China again, what advice did he give to Chinese investors, and what predictions of the future of China and the world economy were made?　　(The following MJ on behalf of "Investment Youdao", Luo on behalf of Rogers) master stock selection also mainstream MJ: as a master of investment, we are very concerned about how you choose a stock? Luo: The first is to choose a good industry, not a good industry I will not buy, and then the development potential.　　If the trend in an industry is good, then each of these companies will not be too bad-even those that are not very good may be "out of the way". Choose a good industry, I analyze the specific situation of some enterprises, to judge its development potential, for example, I pay attention to the quality of enterprise management, through the analysis of managers in the past background, performance, to examine their quality, this background is not referring to the background of their reading, but the background of the industry.　　If the management quality is not good, this enterprise is now better, I will not buy its shares. On the whole, I choose the principle of stock is good business in the good enterprise, of course, sometimes there will be some balance, such as the aviation industry, I bought some good performance stocks, but also bought some not so good stock, because I think the future development of the industry will be very good.　　I think the wine industry is good, I bought two wine stocks. Even in the midst of the economic crisis, some industries and businesses are still making money.　　To choose such an enterprise. MJ: You've been earning enough money for a lifetime in 10 years, can you tell us howBe a good investor? Luo: There are many good ways.　　Personally, sometimes top-down, sometimes bottom-up. For example, in 1999, I went to Pudong for the first time, there were farmland everywhere, but I know that the country to develop Pudong, I bought a lot of business related to the construction of Pudong stock.　　This is a top-down example, starting with macro-economic analysis and then to micro-analysis. For example, I like to drink red wine, at the same time I think the wine industry has a good future, I bought the shares of Changyu wine. But I do not like to drink Maotai, do not buy Maotai shares (laughter).　　This is the bottom-up, from microscopic to macroscopic examples. MJ: You are said to hold a large amount of gold and silver.　　In the context of the economic downturn, should investors less touch stocks, funds, buy more gold, silver, such as hard currency? Luo: I personally think that physical assets are better than stocks and funds.　　My "Rogers International Commodity Index" rose 159.37% from 1998 to 2008, while the Nasdaq Composite Index, the Dow Jones Industrial average and the standard and poor 500 index only rose 26.99%, 11.82% and 9.54% respectively.　　However, whether to buy stocks, or buy goods, first of all you have to understand the investment products, you know the stock, only to buy stocks, you know the goods, before buying goods. Stocks and funds are not to be bought. My investment philosophy is to buy relatively cheap stocks, so if the A-share market is higher than other markets, then I will not buy its shares.　　I own the shares of Air China, which I bought from the H-share market, which is cheaper than the A-shares market.　　However, the current A-shares, B-shares, or h-share, are caused by historical reasons, there will not be such a difference.　　Bullish on China's economy and MJ: China's A-shares have recently risen slightly, what do you think will be the future? What is the outlook for China's economy? Will it soon recover from the economic crisis? Luo: China's stock market is rebounding so well, mainly because it fell so much a year ago.　　Another reason is that the Chinese economy has not suffered as much as other countries, and that some of the measures the Chinese government has taken to save the economy are smarter and more effective than others. Last October and November, the only stock I bought was Chinese stocks. In my opinion, if a market starts to crumble, then the time to buy is over; if it starts to rise, I won't throw it away. I haven't sold the shares of Chinese companies such as Air China.　　When will it be sold? About 50 years later! I am a very bad short-term operator, and rarely do short-term operations, so there is no way to predict 3 months after the Chinese stock market will be.　　However, one thing is certain, China's stock market, 2005 only 1000多 points, now is April 2009, 2,400 points, so from this long period of time, has been in a bull market. In the past 30 years, China has undergone great changes, I believe that the bull market must alsoWill come, but when exactly, this is a question of "the beholder".　　MJ: Did you convert all of your dollars into yen, renminbi and Swiss franc, or do you mean you're not bullish on the dollar and bullish on the three currencies? For example, do you think the renminbi will continue to appreciate?　　Luo: I have said that the dollar will disappear. Buying renminbi in 2009 is equivalent to buying dollars in 1909.　　I think that in the next few years, the renminbi may have a little devaluation, but in the long run, will certainly continue to appreciate.　　I bought the Swiss franc because a few banks in Switzerland were having problems and the Swiss Government was looking to take steps to save the banks. I bought the yen because Japan has a lot of foreign exchange reserves.　　But the yen also has a certain problem, maybe I will be in the near future, perhaps this month, would throw out the yen. Of the three currencies I exchange, the only thing that will not have a problem is the renminbi.　　Let's wait and see in 20 years! In the past, I foresaw problems with financial institutions in the United States, and I can now predict that the next crisis will be a currency crisis that will emerge in the next 2-5 years.　　Of course, the exact kind of currency crisis is not easy to say. MJ: You've been through a number of global economic crises, and you've often made accurate predictions and judgments about the economic crisis.　　And China's current group of entrepreneurs has just grown up, can you give Chinese entrepreneurs some advice on how to deal with the crisis? Luo: I think, no matter at what moment, let them know what they are best at, the most love is what, do not follow the crowd, by the outside influence, neither blindly obey my words, also don't listen to the media (laugh).　　Get to know your ideas first. For example, today's parents are eager for their children to become doctors and lawyers, in short, to engage in the best parents think of the profession.　　However, maybe a child's dream is to be a gardener, he insists on his ideals, finally realized, he may do well, very happy. I mean, now too many people do work that they don't like, and get up and work hard every day.　　It's because they don't know what they really like. So, I think the most important thing is that Chinese entrepreneurs want to know what they like.