Shipping industry: Guotai Ship Information Monthly 9th

Investment points: New orders: The global April new orders for 130,000 DWT, with the chain fell 99%, 83% respectively.　　China April new orders for 80,000 DWT, the year-on-year decline of 99.2%, the chain growth of 660%.　　The global April new orders are mainly sea workers, accounted for 75.63%, bulk and container ships have no new orders, April China's most new orders; Japan has no new orders for 4 consecutive months, the first time since the Korean crisis 0 order.　　Completion: April month and cumulative, the world completed 727, 35.18 million dwt respectively, year-on-year growth-0.11%, 24.71% respectively, China completed 176, 8.89 million DWT, respectively, the year-on-year growth of 31.96%, 58.38%.　　The global April month and the cumulative total ship type are mainly oil tankers, followed by bulk and container vessels, South Korea accounted for the highest percentage of completion, followed by Japan, China. According to the order, 2009-2010 South Korea's completed year-on-year growth of 85.93%, 19.48% respectively, China's year-on-year growth of 93.34%, 33.39%, Japan's year-on-year growth of 13.5%,-6.75%.　　Japan's completion rate is significantly slower than China and South Korea. Hand-held orders: Due to the completion of more than new orders, hand-held orders continued to decline for several months.　　At the beginning of May, global handheld orders 557 million dwt, the chain reduced by 1.5%. In hand-held orders, bulk carriers accounted for the highest, 37.15%, followed by tankers, containers, sea workers. China handheld order 203.5 million dwt in early May, the chain reduced by 1.02%.　　According to Deadweight tonnage, China handheld orders slightly more than South Korea, Japan after the South Korea.　　BDI, ship price and shipbuilding board Price: May BDI has more than 2,400 points; nominal ship prices continued to fall, affected by the real effective exchange rate index of the United States dollar, April actual ship prices fell more than the nominal decline, the current ship price lower than the highest point 20-35% about. Ship price stability at 3800 yuan/ton, expected to follow down the space is very school industry and company valuation and rating: The current industry, the global average PE and PB 9.65 and 1.94 respectively. Times。 Withdrawal, deferred delivery, price reduction is the main risk for the industry to maintain the industry "neutral" rating; China's 2009-2011 EPS is expected to be 6.32, 6.74, 7.80 Yuan respectively, to maintain the target price of 70 yuan and cautious overweight rating , the international 2009-2011 EPS is expected to be 1.62, 1.96, 1.77 yuan respectively, to maintain the target price of 16.2 yuan and neutral rating.