The central vote day quantity promotion fluidity to withdraw

The central bank's hike in interest rates and reserve requirements have sent a very clear signal of liquidity "tightening" to curb credit "blowout". On 12th, the People's Bank of China raised the 1-year central vote rate, and the 200 billion-dollar 28-day repurchase that was issued on the same day hit a record high.　　On the same day, the central bank announced a 0.5% per cent increase in reserve requirements from 18th. Experts believe that the huge amount of maturing funds and the establishment of the upward cycle of interest rates, the central bank in the open market will continue to "discount sales" to ensure that the liquidity is reasonable enough.　　The central bank's hike in interest rates and reserve requirements have sent a very clear signal of liquidity "tightening" to curb credit "blowout". Central bank in January bursts three recruit surprise New year, central bank in the routine open market operation frequently, most "unexpected".　　Raise the open market operation of bills and repo rates, increase the amount of return, raise the reserve requirement ratio, escalation, a series of operations show that the central bank intends to increase liquidity recovery. January 7, the March central vote rate increased by 4.04 basis points, 91-day positive repurchase rate at the same time up 3.2 basis; The following January 12, the 1-year central vote rate rose 8.29 basis points, and the 28-day repurchase circulation reached a record high of 200 billion yuan.　　On the evening of 12th, the central bank announced a 0.5% increase in reserve requirements from 18th, without any indication. Guotai, Jiang Su, a macro-volume director, said the reserve requirement ratio had been raised much earlier than market expectations.　　Guotai, who had boldly predicted that the central bank would raise reserve requirements in March on the day the export data were released last December, did not expect to be so fast. Chen Lu, a macro analyst at Haitong Securities, said the central bank's increase in reserve requirements was aimed at balancing the year's credit.　　There are market rumors that the first week of this year to increase the amount of renminbi credit to 600 billion yuan, even if the annual new credit 7.5 trillion yuan, the first quarter accounted for 40% to calculate, the growth rate is still quite alarming. The amount of money due in the first quarter to the second highest level of history is the direct reason why the central bank increased its return earlier this year, according to statistics, does not consider 2010 new bills and repurchase,　　As much as $1.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2010, the figure exceeded the level of 1.7 trillion yuan in the first quarter of last year, the second highest level in history after the 2008-year quarter. Since last September, the central bank has increased the circulation of the March and 91-day buybacks to keep the 1-year interest rate stable.　　The circulation of the 1-year central vote last December remained at a low of 10 billion yuan.　　A trader of a Shanghai Commercial Bank said that the 1-year central vote was relatively low, mainly because of insufficient market demand, the one or two-level market interest rate upside down so that the first-tier market 1-year central votes less people. The increase in interest rates has led to a sharp reduction in demand for long-term varieties in the market, with only short-term varieties to increaseThe withdrawal of strength, or above the issue of interest rates such as "price" way to enhance market demand. To make up for the lack of hedging capacity, the central bank has used the reserve requirement ratio tool in advance. Liu Yuhui, director of the China Economic Evaluation Center at the Institute of Finance at the Academy of Social Sciences, argues that credit regulation is the main reason The market is rumored to have added 600 billion yuan in the first week of the new Year, and the credit "blowout" is clearly in conflict with the central bank's goal of "balanced lending".　　In addition, last December, CPI data may exceed market expectations, coupled with a sharp rebound in import and export data, has spawned the central vote rate and reserve requirements of the "double rate" increase.　　According to the data of the general Administration of customs, December 2009 China's export growth of 17.7%, significantly higher than market expectations, the emergence of the export inflection point will not only significantly alleviate the problem of overcapacity, but will lead to a better profit of enterprises, means that China's economic recovery is more solid foundation.　　"Tightening" signal obvious liquidity afterburner according to the Central bank statistics, the national financial institutions at the end of November 2009, the balance of RMB deposits of 59.27 trillion yuan, this time for large deposit financial institutions to raise the deposit reserve ratio of 0.5%, equivalent to a one-time withdrawal of funds of about 300 billion yuan.　　Li Huiding Securities fixed income analyst, said that a one-time withdrawal of 300 billion yuan capital will not give a big impact on market liquidity, but the policy transfer of liquidity "tightening" signal is very clear. Market view, the central vote rate and deposit reserve ratio of the upward cycle has been clear, in the future, including the 1-year interest rate of the open market operation rate will still be upward. But Haitong Securities macroeconomic analyst Xiong said, because the issue rate is lower than the two-level market interest rates, resulting in more difficult to withdraw funds.　　Although the 1-year central vote interest rate can enlarge the size of the issue, but in the context of a possible interest rate hike, the appeal of medium-and long-term central votes is still not enough.　　The continuous regulation of the central bank has also changed the market's speculation on the use of monetary policy tools, the Industrial Bank Capital Operations Center, senior economist Lu County, the financial management of Societe Generale predicted that according to hot money inflows and surpluses caused by the increase in foreign exchange, this year's reserve ratio may still continue to adjust. Of course, the central bank regulation or to follow the principle of differentiation and avoid "one-size-fits-all", does not raise the need to focus on supporting the relevant agricultural financial institutions reserve requirements, but in the financial crisis in the Hard-hit SMEs or will be the first to feel "pain."