The defensive nature of the first heatstroke of stock market

Summary: In the case of nearly half the share price has doubled, there are still a large number of stocks left behind by far index. Not because of poor performance, but because of their defensive nature.　　With market risk accumulating, it is also a good option to have some defensive stocks. Wen/Sinorama reporter Yao Sun from the beginning of this year to July 14, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose to 90.06%. Among the 1602-a-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen, there are as many as 892, of which 763 share prices doubled, 123 rose more than 200%, and 21 stocks rose more than 300%.　　However, in many investors smile, there are people sigh, because a considerable part of the stock index was left behind, not even rise and fall. Why the stagnant stock does not rise according to statistics, as of July 14, this year's rise behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index of 683 stocks, of which, the increase in the 70%~90% of 256 stocks, the increase in the 50%~70% has 213 stocks, the increase in 30%~50% has 133 stocks, 73 stocks rose within 30%, while another 8 did not rise and fall.　　8 of the decline in the stock decline is not small, in addition to the newly listed Guilin three gold and million horse cable, as well as steel vanadium, double Heron pharmaceutical industry in the decline between 5%~11%, the rest are only less than 1% of the slight fall.　　Here, we will increase by less than 30% of the 79 stocks (excluding Guilin three gold and the Million horse cable) as the focus of this paper-stagnation (table 2). Table 2: Stock securities that have risen less than 30% this year (%) Shen million industry 000629 steel vanadium-9.4771 black metal 002038 Double Heron Pharmaceutical-5.9922 pharmaceutical biological 000578 Salt Lake Group-0.7921 Chemical 600900 Changjiang Power-0.6272 Utilities 600271 Aerospace Information-0.554 information Services 000792 Salt Lake Potash-0.3852 chemical 6011 86 China Railway Construction 4.5002 Building Materials 002022 Bio 6.7697 Pharmaceutical Biology 600062 double Crane pharmaceutical 7.555 Pharmaceutical biological 6,008,293 Refined medicine 9.3685 Pharmaceutical biology 600557 kang Yuan medicine 9.9043 Pharmaceutical biology 600.479 million gold medicine 10.2813 pharmaceutical Biology 000538 Yunnan White powder 10.50 54 Pharmaceutical Biology 000848 Chengde Dew 11.6516 Food beverage 002252 Shanghai Wallace 11.8409 Pharmaceutical biological 600506* St Fragrant Pear 12.1127 Agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry and fishery 600867 Tonghua Dongbao 12.2153 Medical Biology 002269 American Apparel 12.2423 Textile clothing 000759 Wuhan hundred 12.7453 Commercial trade 002152 Radio Express 14.2946 information equipment 000895 double sinks development 14.5163 food and beverage 600267 Hai Zheng Pharmaceutical Co. 1 6.3724 Medical Students600517 confidence Electrical 16.6012 mechanical equipment 600401* St Shannon 16.8067 Light manufacturing 600495 jinxi axle 16.8477 delivery equipment 600276 Heng Rui Medicine 17.3617 Medical biology 002122 days Horse shares 17.8181 machinery equipment 002183 Yi Tong 17.832 transport 000925 Zhejiang Haina 17.8801 Electronic Components 000917 Power Media 18 .3908 Information Services 002118 Purple Xin Pharmaceutical Industry 19.1532 Medical Biology 99,939 Medicine 19.2301 Pharmaceutical Biology 281 Pharmaceutical Biology 19.4411 Huaneng International 600011 Utilities 20.4414 Oriental rain Rainbow 002271 Building materials 20.794 United Chemical 002217 600599 Panda Fireworks 21.1477 Light manufacturing 600359 New agriculture Development 21.2903 Agriculture and forestry husbandry and fishery 002200 green Earth 21.6575 Agro-forestry and fishery 002262 Nhwa Pharmaceutical 21.8924 Medical Biology 002268 Guardian 21.9942 Information Service 600054 Huangshan Tourism 22.3564 Catering Tourism 600678 St jinding 22.4172 Building materials 000729 yanjing Beer 22.4974 Food and beverage 000963 huadong Medicine 22.5627 Pharmaceutical Biology 600476 Mail technology 22.6562 information Services 600820 tunnel shares 22.7055 building materials 000668 Rong Feng holding 23.1128 chemical 002238 Granville Video 23 .2903 Information Services 000539 Guangdong Electric Power A23.4146 Public Utilities 600886 Power 23.7308 Utilities 600540 new shares 23.9316 agriculture, forestry and fishery 000860 Shun Xin Agriculture 23.9706 agriculture and Fisheries 600588 Ufida 24.0894 Information Service 000869 Zhang Yu A24.7107 food 000595 Northwest bearing 24.9617 mechanical equipment 600583 Sea oil Project 25.0789 Construction Building Materials 000826 Resources 25.1599 Utilities 600176 China fiberglass 25.344 chemical 600350 Shandong High speed 25.3608 transportation 600377 Nanjing-Shanghai Expressway 25.7017 Traffic 00221 4 Technology 25.9442 Electronic components 000713 Fung Lok seed Industry 25.9738 Agriculture and Fisheries 002220 days treasure shares 26.2617 food drinks 002234 People's shares 26.4901 agricultural and pastoral fishery 600521 Huahai Pharmaceutical 26.609 Pharmaceutical Biology 600323 South China Sea Development 26.6917 Utilities 601766 China South Car 26.9249 Delivery Equipment 601390 China Railway 26.9373 Building materials 600444 National Tong Pipe Industry 27.1565 Chemical 600389 Jiangshan shares 27.1914 chemical 22,429 Yang shares 27.2414 household electrical appliances 000750s* St Ji Qi 27.6163 Financial services 600439 Rebecca 27.6581 Light manufacturing 600423 Willow shares 28.1888 chemical 002074 Dongyuan Electric 28.3795 Machinery equipment 600485 zhong Chuang xin measuring 28.9585 information equipment 600858 Ginza shares 29.0067 commercial trade 600089 special variable electrician 29.7 783 Mechanical Equipment Note: Statistics as at July 14. Data Source: Wind Information Why are these stocks stagflation? Is poor performance met with a cold shoulder? Of these 79 stocks, the first quarter of this year, only the Guardian, the state-owned pipe industry, Liu-shares, Northwest bearings, steel vanadium, such as 13 stocks, only accounted for 16%. These 79 stocks in the first quarter arithmetic average earnings per share of 0.1140 yuan, higher than the overall average of a shares (0.0446 yuan), the average operating cash flow of 0.2002 yuan, is far more than the overall share of the average level (0.0636 yuan). And from 30 companies that have announced interim results forecasts, 16 will increase, slightly increase or continue to profit, better than the overall situation.　　This shows that the stock performance is not bad. From an industry point of view, it is not difficult to find that these stagnant stocks are very concentrated. According to the SYWG industry level division, these stocks are distributed in the pharmaceutical organisms (17), Chemical (8), agriculture, forestry and Fishery (7), utilities (6), Building materials (6), Information Services (6), Machinery Equipment (5), Food and beverage (5), Transportation (3), light Manufacturing (3) and other industries. This is in line with this year's weaker industry sector.　　As can be seen from table 2, pharmaceutical biology, Chemical industry, agriculture, forestry, husbandry and fishery, public utilities, information services, food and beverage, transportation and other industries have lagged far behind real estate, mining, non-ferrous metals, delivery equipment. Table 2 The rise of the sub-industry since this year the name of the plate rose (% 76.76 Information Services 81.08 Transportation 83.12 Medical Biology 83.87 Utilities 91.73 Household electrical Appliances 93.59 food and beverage 97.62 commercial trade 100.85 chemical 101.55 Electronic Components 101.96 Textile clothing 102.24 information equipment 102.58 Machinery Equipment 102.94 Construction Building Materials 107 .06 Light Manufacturing 108.81 Financial Services 110.34 Catering tourism 114.37 black metal 116.31 synthetic 127.98 delivery equipment 139.82 non-ferrous Metals 145.95 Mining 171.76 Real Estate 179.21 Note: Statistics as of July 14. Data Source: Wind Information this year, with the introduction of the 4 trillion-dollar stimulus package and a series of industrial revitalization plans, coupled with economic data showing signs of recovery, investors are increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook, most directly benefiting fromRecovery of the cyclical industry by the market, from commodities (non-ferrous metals, coal) to optional consumption (real estate, delivery equipment), and then to the recent steel, financial industry, cyclical sectors of the industry sector has been rising, and constantly pushing up the index. and cyclical industry, corresponding to the lively, defensive industry some appear in front of the cold.　　Although by 4 trillion yuan investment, the new medical reform and other policy news, pharmaceutical biology, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, building materials and other industries have been in the stock market, but with cyclical industry stocks more and more sought after, these defensive stocks have entered a stagnant period. To public utilities, transportation, food and beverage, pharmaceutical organisms, such as the representative of the defensive industry, the economic cycle and the relationship between the economy is not high, stable development, performance volatility is small, unlike cyclical industry, the performance will be significantly increased, so in the liquidity and performance growth expected to support the unilateral rise in the market,　　The defensive industry's gains lag far behind cyclical industries.　　That explains why stocks that are performing well will become stagflation.　　The defensive is becoming more and more important. However, as the overall market rose more and more high, a growing number of institutional strategy reports appear "defensive" word. The Shanghai Composite Index has risen 70% so far, Shen exponentially has also doubled, although in the financial and policy aspects of the support, still keep accelerating the trend, but the unilateral rise to the current high, the attitude of investors more cautious, coupled with monetary policy has been fine-tuning, policy supervision further strengthening, new issue speed significantly accelerated, Market volatility is inevitable.　　And once the policy is expected to change, the fundamental improvement of the expected decline in liquidity tightening, and so on, the index is bound to adjust downward, looking for support. BOC International believes that in the process of changing the unilateral upward trend in the market, the market's scepticism about the economic recovery will rise, the performance of the company or the performance rebound tendency will be repeated, which can also directly discourage investors ' confidence in the sustained economic recovery.　　In this context, coupled with ample liquidity, the market is likely to turn its back on the defensive sector to the front, raising its valuations to a seemingly higher level. State-Credit securities from the cyclical industry has a clear seasonal effect angle, that 7 August for most cyclical industry production and sales of the off-season, during which prices face callback pressure, sales chain decline, so the three quarter to avoid most cyclical industry callback risk.　　Therefore, the second half of the proposed configuration strategy is "first defense, after the attack."　　Haitong Securities believe that in response to the second half of the economic recovery and policy may be less than expected, so the investment strategy needs to have a certain degree of defensive. In this judgment, the defensive industry in the investment allocation of the position greatly improved.　　BOC International recommended to the wine, pharmaceuticals, gas, retail, home appliances to give "excess configuration", while recommending the performance of the industry to pick up the obvious construction, machinery, road and railway industry. State-Credit securities from the industry rotation angle analysis, in a complete cycle of economic cycles, the upward cycle should hold cyclical industry (real estate, automobiles-steel, non-ferrous, cement-coal, etc., the downward cycle of the consumer sector (health care, food and beverage, commercial trade, etc.) is the best choice, and from the short-term trend of the economic growth cycle of the phased callback in the consumer sector is still the best choice for defense.　　Its proposal in the three-quarter configuration priority to choose without seasonal negative factors interference industry, the bank, oil mining, commercial retail, medical care, food and beverage, highway and railway, airport, communications operations and other industries. Haitong Securities in the defensive strategy, the potential investment opportunities in the three sectors are bullish: first, there are potential valuation premium opportunities in the essential consumer goods industry with typical defensive characteristics, such as pharmaceutical biology, beer, white household appliances and retail industry, as well as the road management and airport management industry with certain defensive characteristics and relatively stable gross profit margin.　　Second, the medium and long term is expected to benefit from the government's expansionary fiscal policies of infrastructure and related industries, such as cement, construction machinery, construction industry and so on; third, the depreciation expectation of the dollar exchange rate and the potential structural inflationary pressure bring the volatility opportunity to the oil exploitation, nonferrous metals and agricultural sectors. Defensive stagnation stock utility is the most typical defensive industry, providing basic life and production services, such as water supply, power supply, gas supply, sewage treatment and other services, with demand rigidity, price stability characteristics, the sensitivity of the changes in the economic cycle is very low. Stable cash flow and strong dividend ability to make it in the market shocks, often become a "safe haven" of funds. The current stagflation stocks are mainly electricity and water stocks. As the economy recovers and summer electricity peaks, electricity generation and electricity consumption will continue to rebound, and the power unit will gain performance support.　　And the price of water prices exist expectations, will also be favorable related stocks. Changjiang Power China's largest hydropower listed companies, wholly owned Gezhouba hydropower station, main hydroelectric power. The company has announced that it will acquire all three Gorges power-related assets held by China Three Gorges Project Development Corporation, and the company's earnings will increase significantly after the acquisition is completed. In the first quarter of this year, the company achieved its main revenue of 1.232 billion yuan, up 13.33% from a year earlier. According to wind consistent profit forecast, 2009 net profit can reach 6.51 billion yuan, earnings per share of 0.69 yuan. This means that the company's net profit in 2009 may have risen by 65.63% per cent year-on-year. The market is widely expected that the future electricity and water power grid will gradually and thermal power grid price leveling, which will be good company performance.　　Of the 28 ratings agencies, 9 are strongly bullish, 16 bullish and 3 are flat. The pharmaceutical biological industry is not a cyclical industry, which determines the main factors such as residents ' income and population structure. With the growing income of Chinese residents and the increase in the number of elderly people, the demand for the biomedical industry is increasing. The new medical reform policy will also be conducive to the healthy development of biomedical industry.　　From the policy and demand point of view, the pharmaceutical biological industry is a good defensive breed. 39 medicine is mainly engaged in the research and development of pharmaceutical products, production, sales andRelated health services, the existing more than 1000 products involving proprietary Chinese medicine, chemical raw materials and preparations, biological products and other fields. With the arrival of China Resources, the company operation into the right track, sales steady growth, not the main business gradually stripping, asset quality and profitability is improving, has become the domestic OTC market leader. Sanjiu stomach and Tai Zheng Tian pill may enter the basic medicine catalogue. The company recently released performance advance announcement, said the first half of the net profit growth 50%~60%, earnings per share 0.32~0.34 yuan, the main reason is the pharmaceutical industry revenue growth of 30%, the company's comprehensive gross profit level increased 6%. According to wind consistent profit forecast, 2009 net profit can reach 642 million yuan, earnings per share of 0.6562 yuan.　　Of the 16 ratings agencies, 4 are strongly bullish and 12 bullish. Transportation has always been a representative defensive industry in the market. As the basic industry of national economy, the transportation involves a wide range of aspects, including ports, airports, railways, highways and other fields.　　Compared with the cyclical industry, the transport industry's performance is relatively stable, so in a strong market the industry is rarely favored. Nanjing-Shanghai High-speed currently operates 4 highways, 2 highway and 1 Yangtze River Highway Bridge, China's highway industry is the largest asset companies. The company's core assets are the Yangtze River delta of Shanghai-Nanjing high-speed Jiangsu section, contributing 60% of the revenue and about 85% of the gross margin. With the rapid development of the integration process of Yangtze River Delta and the exploitation of the coastal area in northern Jiangsu, the traffic flow of the company network is expected to be supported by long-term growth. Company dividend policy stability, dividend rate of more than 4%. According to wind consistent profit forecast, 2009 net profit can reach 1.656 billion yuan, earnings per share of 0.3287 yuan, performance will achieve a small increase year-on-year.　　Among the 18 ratings agencies, 1 are strongly bullish, 12 bullish, 4 flat and 1 bearish. The food and beverage industry is closely related to the daily necessities of food and beverage, and is less influenced by the macroeconomic fluctuations, and is a typical defensive industry. With the increase of people's income, the consumption demand of food and beverage is increasing.　　The food and beverage enterprises with stable performance and good market development prospects have more investment value. Yanjing Beer is one of the largest beer conglomerates in China. Companies adhere to intensive cultivation has the advantage of the market, and constantly expand the new advantages of the market, already has Beijing, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Hubei five dominant market, in Beijing, Guangxi's market share of more than 85%, the dominant market control ability is very strong. Since 2009, the price of barley, hops and other raw materials has been significantly reduced, contributing to the promotion of corporate gross margin. In the first quarter of this year, the company's beer sales grew 13.51% per cent over the same period last year, faster than the industry average. With the advent of the beer consumption season, the company's beer sales are expected to grow further. According to wind consistent profit forecast, 2009 net profit can reach 670 million yuan, earnings per share of 0.5537 yuan. In 19 home givenAmong the rating agencies, 6 are bullish, 11 are bullish and 2 are flat. For more wonderful financial articles, please login to the first financial network (www.Amoney.com.cn) statement: This copyright for the first exclusive financial management, if necessary reprint, please contact us. Email to editor@amoney.com.cn or call 021-64830133