The Greek crisis is a chance for China

In Tuesday (April 28), S & P announced a downgrade of Greek debt to junk levels, with investors estimated to be able to take back their investment at a rate of 30% to 50%.　　　　How do Germany and China's economic circles view this as another blow to Greece? Greek debt holders may face losses according to overseas media, the other important reason for the downgrade of the Greek debt is the Greek government's issuance of the May 19 debt. The total amount of this debt is around 8.5 billion euros. What does the decline in Greek ratings mean for its debt holders? Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank, said: "After this downgrade, investors should be more aware that the money they lent to Greece would not be fully withdrawn." Professor Zhou Jizhong of the Sufe Institute of Finance also said: It is unlikely that Greece's current fiscal position is likely to be repaid with such a huge debt looming, and that it is likely that Greece will be forced to default if it does not have the aid of the IMF.　　　　"It is entirely possible," Kramer told reporters, that there is now a political debate in Europe about whether a portion of the Greek bond investors deserve to be deducted. The Germans worry that Greece will become the "bottomless pit" of Germany's largest circulation of the "angst" as the headline headlines of today's headline story of Greece suffered this another blow.　　Kramer thinks the Germans ' fears come from two sides: "The Germans, of course, are afraid of Germany, or that German taxpayers are going to keep filling a bottomless hole with a lot of money." This is a fear, the other is fear of inflation, they fear that the government's debt will eventually lead to a high rate of inflation results. Germany's two world wars have inflated inflation, which has been deeply embedded in the collective memory of the Germans. "What is more noteworthy now is how the politicians reacted to the unfolding fiscal crisis."　　The German government's stance so far has been to agree, in principle, to reach out to Greece on the assumption that Greece must introduce and resolutely implement a series of austerity plans. Professor Zhou Jizhong's view is: "The main euro-zone countries, especially Germany, are not giving financial aid to a country with a debt crisis due to lax fiscal discipline, and their attitude is actually very cautious and hesitant." From the German Government's point of view, if it is now too easy for it (Greece) to get financial assistance to tide over the storm, it is actually condoning such an approach, which is financially undisciplined and contrary to common policy. "In addition, there are also many voices in Germany criticizing Chancellor Angela Merkel for fearing that the forthcoming Westphalia elections will be negatively affected by her government's aid to Greece, and have repeatedly delayed the enactment of specific aid measures to give international speculators room to live." But CommerzbankChief economist Kramer argues that speculators are less likely to be here: "Now it is not just the question of international financial speculators, it is not that everyone is betting that Greece will eventually go bankrupt, or that they will eventually receive financial support from the eurozone countries." There are a lot of banks, insurance companies, private investment, pension funds and related reserves that were invested in the Greek government many years ago in a very conventional way, when it was impossible to imagine a country in the eurozone being able to repay its own debt. "The Greek financial crisis has both advantages and disadvantages for China, and the Greek and even eurozone crises do not mean bad news," he said. "This is really good news for the EU's exports to China, because the renminbi is actually pegged to the dollar, and the dollar is appreciating against the euro, so the renminbi is appreciating against the euro," Professor Zhou Jizhong said. Professor Zhou said the phenomenon would help expand the euro zone's exports to China and reduce the growth of China's trade surplus with the eurozone. On the other hand, a depreciating euro could cut costs for Chinese companies investing in Europe, but the crisis in Europe is a double-edged sword, "the downside is that the crisis will make countries like Greece and Portugal have a protectionist resistance to foreign investment and foreign trade." In addition, as the economy shrinks within the eurozone, the decline in purchasing power will make the euro zone less attractive as a market. "Author: A View