The maths of the price

In the evening bar, the band is working hard to sing, but it seems to not be too much interest in the crowd.　　Until a song to buy a house difficult theme of the original song sounded, the atmosphere suddenly reached the boiling point. This is a microcosm of the contemporary Chinese society.　　There is no doubt that at this stage, the house is the hottest topic, and even if you mention it on any occasion, it can resonate quickly. Crazy house prices have clearly touched the bottom line of the government. Thus, an unprecedented real estate market control campaign is in full play.　　When most people are still talking about which policy is more effective, we may be able to interpret the source of the rise in house prices as an accounting person and the solution based on such inferences. The amplification effect of income why is house prices so crazy?　　Some blame the local land finance, blamed on China's large population and the Chinese people's obsession with the house, blamed on the "king" frequency, and if the social phenomenon from an accounting point of view, perhaps, the problem will be relatively simple.　　We first to do an arithmetic problem: if small a with a total price of 500,000 yuan to buy a set of housing, a down payment of 100,000 yuan, a loan of 400,000 yuan, monthly repayment of 2500 yuan. 10 months later, the price of the house rose 60% to 800,000 yuan. Small A will sell the house, net earn 280,000 yuan (suppose 10 month total repayment is 5000 yuan).　　In view of the fact that small a bought the property at only 125,000 yuan, the yield of the investment was as high as 224% (280,000 yuan/125,000 yuan).　　This is the leverage effect in finance, and is one of the key reasons why countless people are keen to invest in their homes: as long as they can borrow from the bank, the rise in house prices has the effect of amplifying returns, and the higher the loan ratio, the greater the effect. Of course, this effect also happens when house prices fall.　　But, in most people's view, real estate is the pillar industry of China's economy, even if it falls, its decline is also limited. The only leveraged product a basic fact is: Before the introduction of stock index futures, in addition to commodity futures, the house has been our only one with leverage effect of the investment varieties. Because, our country financial market's investment variety is limited, even if the only these varieties, also are the homogeneous product.　　and the risk and the threshold of commodity futures are too high, few people dare to participate. Therefore, from this point of view, the housing market will inevitably be hot.　　Although there are many and complicated reasons for pushing up house prices, there are more incentives for house prices to rise wildly than just need, in a country where housing construction is already overflowing.　　Under this demand, there is no doubt that this "only leveraged investment breed" has a lethal allure. A friend once told her about renting a story: She had met a special landlord, a private enterprise trading company.　　The company accumulated a certain amount of money in previous years ' operations, but struggled to find a better way to invest, and turned the money into a house hanging over the boss and the relatives of the boss. In China, similar companies kenCertainly not a few.　　The more extreme situation is that some corporate bosses have even shut down the business, put all the money into the housing market, to do a professional speculation. Expand investment channels since the 2008 international financial crisis, financial products have become a scourge in the night. And China is because of the relatively conservative in financial innovation to avoid a huge impact, which seems to make people believe that the original sin of financial products.　　Some have even made the extreme suggestion that China does not need financial products. However, that is not the case. Wall Street's woes are due to the misuse of financial products, not the financial products themselves.　　Just as Goldman Sachs, which has recently been denounced as "morally bankrupt," has no fault in its marketing financial products, it is wrong to allow the other side of the bet to juggle in private. April 16, a new leveraged financial products —— — stock index futures officially landed in China's capital market. Compared with the expected before the launch, the product in the more than 10 days of the market to show the popularity of the market and the huge impact of an unexpected.　　This at least reflects a huge enthusiasm for participation. The Government's intention to launch stock index futures is certainly not to curb house prices. There is no doubt, however, that this new financial product is attracting more money into the arena, thus objectively diverting hot money.　　If we can choose to diversify the variety of investment, the flow of hot money will also be more decentralized, housing prices are more likely to return to rationality. The reasons for the soaring prices are many and complex. In a period of excessive madness in the housing market, the intervention of administrative means is necessary and most effective.　　However, in the long run, perfecting the investment varieties of our financial market may also be a way to ensure the healthy development of the real estate industry. The economy is developing, and capital must be found to export.