The price of the last line rose market sincerity valuable

⊙ Dong Wu Securities Jiang Fan Zhu Hao Zhou in order to have a more comprehensive and in-depth understanding of the trend of the stock index after the sharp drop, the author summarizes the similar situation in the history of the Shanghai Composite Index, and finds that the operation of the stock index often has the following laws. Index of the first station of the Shanghai index in the short term multiple shocks after a round of sharp falls, the first line of the stock index is usually the short-term peak of the signal, and according to the stock index trend strength, can be divided into the following three kinds of situation: 1, in the year above the strong adjustment. May 26, 1999, the Shanghai Composite Index to the Yang line to break through the year line, the third day, in the line over the year strong finishing a week, and then quickly pulled up, in just 18 trading days from 1259 points to 1756 points, the increase of nearly 40%.　　This shows that if the stock index in the first station after the line and in the year line over the strong adjustment, on behalf of the market long will strong, the stock index adjustment time is shorter (generally around 1 weeks), and in the oscillation adjustment will appear a wave of rapid lifting market, the characteristics of this wave is very strong and time is relatively short. 2, around the year line oscillation adjustment. This is generally the case, with the Shanghai Composite Index appearing two times in August 1994 and December 2003 respectively. The index was adjusted after the first line last year, 3 weeks after the two-year line, followed by a shock on the attack, cumulative gains of 46% and 22% respectively. According to the author's opinion, if the stock index in the first line after the year line in the vicinity of the concussion finishing, stock index shocks adjusted time is 2-4 weeks, of which the probability of adjustment about 3 weeks is greater, then the index in two confirmed year line will be again on the attack, the wave of the market lasted longer but the increase speed than the first situation to slow.　　According to the above situation, the index two times after the last line of the rise in the 22%-48%, median in 34%. 3, in the year below the weak adjustment of the line. September 19, 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index first touched the year after a wave of 12% adjustment, but then in the same year December 26 again touched the annual line of 1158 points, and finally in the capacity of the same along the way to 1695 points, the breakthrough line after the cumulative increase of up to 46%.　　I think: If the stock index in the year below the weak adjustment, representing the weak market at that time, the timing of the stock index adjustment is relatively long, but the adjustment range will not be very deep, then the stock index is expected to be in the capacity of the line again, and guide a wave of strong on the market, this wave in the above three cases the longest duration, the increase is also the largest. The Shanghai Composite Index two-station year line rising market sincerity valuable Shanghai Composite indexes two times after the fall of the previous line (in the extreme case of three times), followed by a large rally, the average increase of 36.37%. Although the Shanghai Composite Index will have a concussion adjustment after the first line, the index is usually able to stand on the previous line after the concussion adjustment, and the last line is significant, which represents the real strength of the index. According to the 8 domestic and foreign can refer to the situation, in addition to 1994The Shanghai Composite Index began to pull up after three times in August, while the remaining seven were officially strengthened after the two-year line, with an average increase (starting from two previous year) to 36.37%. For the current round, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 1664 points in just over a year from 6,124, down 72.8% per cent. And in the policy and economic recovery of the double support, the stock index on October 28, 2008 rebounded, and on April 13, 2009, the first line last year, then the index around the annual line concussion adjustment 2 weeks after the year on April 29, 2009 again on the line of attack.　　The round is similar to the second: the first-ever line after a sharp fall, followed by a 2-week swing in the vicinity of the year's line, and again on the line of attack. Combined with the above research and the characteristics of the current market, the author believes that the stock index in two successful stations after the last line has basically established a strong feature, but because the stock index base is not very strong, and chip conversion also requires a process of adjustment. Overall, the stock index in the year near the line will be a W-type trend, and the right half of the V-shaped bottom will be generated near the line, after this, the stock index is expected to usher in a wave of strong rise.