The unilateral rally is nearing its end

Moderator Wu has a research agency that counts the performance of the Hang Seng index in each month over the past 40 years and its probability of rising in that month. Hong Kong stocks in April, July, October to December each year, in the past 10 years to 40 years, the increase in the probability of higher. The chances of the Hang Seng index falling in May were the highest, up to 70%, is the other month the highest probability of one months, based on such statistical results were proposed in May to sell the purchase of the Sell in the May strategy in October, coincidentally, May has always been a a-share of the troubled, this week, and see the private guests hot "Sell in May　　”。　　Host mailbox: Zy@vip.sohu.net.　　Unilateral rally near the end of the host: You last week to hurt me, said the stock is not clear, make a person chasing me every day, I know what you say broken stocks? Spring: Alas, I am too conservative, or individual friends too utilitarian.　　Last week said the road, the railway plate, the intention is to say, a relatively long consolidation of varieties, security is higher, the result is not safe, just want to profiteering, really and my intention is too far. Moderator: Forget it, don't mention it.　　Remember last time a reader asked you St, your answer he is very satisfied, he thought you point to some key issues, this week he wrote again, want to ask you St Luo Glass (600876). Spring: How did I become an ST specialist? But the company, like the FA, is a bit of a spectacle. The reasons behind the long-term suspension of H-shares are inevitable. After the building materials received Luo glass, but also began to St Luo glass future product structure, market structure and other new planning. The future breakthrough direction is solar energy? LCD? Ultra-white glass? Materials？　　It seems that no matter which direction, there are imaginary space.　　Moderator: This series of tepid Yang Line, is it in line with your blowout stereotypes? Spring: Blowout pattern, I only talked about last year *st Room (600890), these two walk is obviously different, can not be applied. But the St Luo Glass's way also very has the characteristic, is worth studying, has the interest the friend, may wish to carefully realize its week, the month line chart, may find some kind of alternative fun. I'm going to Shanghai tomorrow, focusing on the local reorganization company.　　We will report to you when we have time next week. Moderator: Although if the rain rustling play since, all the way to see more, so that everyone is steadfast, but I more fancy you, or your grasp of the hot spot, looking back, your first appearance said two coal stocks, still new highs, and later, you sealed China oil (601857) as "bulls", the recent unusually hot anomaly,　　Are you still watching it? If the rain rustling: PetroChina from the plate up to pull up, the Wednesday index rose 50 points, but up more than 5% of the two cities, less than 100, this market is completely the index effect of oil, has no participation significance. We want to see that the weekly boll channel on the track has been suppressing the operation of the market, now rely on the weight of the pull up to try to break through the track, history has been such an example. May 2006 Breaking WeekBoll on the rail, relying on the colored resources, December broken 2,245 points of history of the top breaking through the rail, rely on ICBC and BOC, can be seen to break through on the track is either popular stocks, or the weight of stocks, now look, through the pull bank shares have been rushed on the track, not successful, I think this and the bank shares the demand for capital is too large, To rely on bank stocks on the rail, you must deal more than 200 billion daily, at present, it is difficult to meet the requirements, the start of the oil to the rail, I think it is also very difficult, after all, the international petroleum is only rebound, is not to go back to cattle, China's oil continuous rise probability is very school why Zhou Boll on the track 2,700 points on the line has so much pressure Please note that our 1664 point since the start of the Gold division point is 2,700 points, 2037 points since the 30% metric increase in this area, and it was last August Olympic platform of the next track, this strong resistance to a rush, it is undoubtedly difficult. In the May market Outlook, I put forward the strong resistance in the overseas market at 8,800 points, the current Dow 8,600 Point also has a relatively large callback pressure, since 2037, the week line around the slow rising channel has been walking for 11 weeks, if the monthly line to see, has been the monthly line 5 Lian Yang. From the time period analysis, the unilateral rally is nearing the end, it is time to sell in May, it is not clear whether the adjustment is the adjustment of all the gains since 1664, or the adjustment since the 2037 point, if the latter, the fall of space will not be very large, if the former, Then the adjustment of space and time will be relatively long.　　Of course, if the longer cycle of the Chinese A-share, I am no doubt a firm bulls.　　Moderator: Please small pan again, you are not the so-called Yangpai, how to see "Sell in May"? Boating: Or last week's view unchanged, 60 Minutes MACD dead fork, and bonded once, now see is going to spread, if the spread, there will be a relatively large shock, and the recent oil and other weight stocks are basically all up again, the market stability cards are playing almost, I personally suggest that we operate slowly , have a bit of guts.　　This round even did not make how much also nothing, adjust mentality, the stock market is always open.　　Wen 2000 year Moderator: This week whether the market is still healthy, old Lee to give a diagnosis. Li Wendong: The current trend, in the technical form and the 2000 bull run characteristics can be said to be very similar, or even to say that there are similarities. The specific performance in: 1, both are in a standard "big rise channel" within the operation.　　The stock index runs to the top of the upward channel, which is under pressure, and the stock index runs to the lower edge of the ascending channel to be supported. 2, two times, the stock index in the operation of the first half of the increase in the road to do wide vibration operation.　　And after two rounds of ups and downs, after the market sentiment is completely gathered up, the stock index began to run in the upper half of the upward channel, and often along the channel along the run. 3, in the continuous stay on the long time or the stock index up more along the line, often the horseAnd then fall back into the channel.　　And when the index is worn more along, the next pull is pulled back into the channel and there will be a greater downward shock or downward decline. 4, when the stock index is on the upper along the slope along the upside, often the stock index rose but make money difficult!　　In other words, the stock index is easy to make money along the channel, when it is running along the concussion is difficult to make money.　　Moderator: The temperature is over, so what should we do? Li Wendong: 1, from the operational point of view, once the stock index on the line has been running for 5-7 consecutive days or the stock index breakthrough along more, often indicates the advent of market risk and increase!　　At this time should be highly vigilant. 2, when the stock index due to the upward pressure on the channel down on the passage of a deeper decline (this will certainly occur in the latter case), the stock index in the bottom of the rise, the channel along the pressure level. And just touch the channel along the short-term risk is not big.　　The greater risk comes from "the stock index on the broken channel along the more" or along the channel along the run for more than a week.　　3, as far as the current stock index trend is concerned, as the index has been continuously along the channel along the running more than 7 days, and the previous stock index has also appeared "on the channel along more" situation, so we said that the current stock index, there is indeed a larger downward pressure, the investors should have a sober understanding.　　4, in the current market "stock index along the channel along the cumulative length of operation" Compared with 2000, the late market continued this trend (or may be a sharp downward shock after the return) should also be sustained. 5, the stock index can shock to the lower edge of the rising channel, which is what we most want to see, if this happens, then this is our best chance to come back.