Three Whole Foods are committed to becoming a table food leader (figure)

Investment-point companies are expanding their positioning from frozen-food suppliers to dinner table suppliers.　　The company is expected to benefit from higher and lower-end labour earnings. Company capacity expansion, the future stable growth can be.　　At present more than miss, industry integration screen is expected to open.　　Forecast company 2010-2012 earnings per share of 0.60 yuan, 0.76 yuan and 0.92 yuan, to give a "cautious recommendation" rating.　　Risk tip: Industry growth may be lower than the market's optimistic expectations. The proportion of Chinese alcoholic beverages is high, according to the market value of the food and beverage index. And the meat, milk, cereal food packaged food, there is a significant increase in space. Grain or rice flour food as the staple of Chinese people, few large listed companies. At present in rice food, three whole food (002216) already is the industry recessive faucet.　　The company has positioned itself from a frozen-food supplier to a more expansive concept of dining table suppliers. We believe that the current constraints on the development of enterprises are mainly urban middle class disposable income growth slow, so that the traditional rice food to the modern packaging food upgrade relatively slow. In the future, with the fundamental change of China's labor supply, the disposable income of the middle and lower income groups will enter a faster stage of Ascension. As an upgraded product of mass consumption, quick-frozen food will become one of the important beneficiaries. On the other hand, the company's new capacity to use a large number of automation technology, replacing the past need more artificial production and packaging links, making the cost of wages greatly reduced. Therefore, the company has a certain ability to resist the increase of labor cost.　　Three Whole Foods in this industry has a significant advantage, is expected to grow into the future of the big-MAC consumer goods companies. Capacity expansion and stable growth in early 2009, the company launched the Zhengzhou integrated base 117,800 tons of projects, so that its total production can close to double, but the financial crisis so that the rate of release of capacity less than expected. But the company has announced its new Southwest and South China production base plans, according to the plan, the company by 2014, capacity can expand to 400,000 tons, than now expansion nearly one times.　　The company sold less than 170,000 tonnes in 2009, which means the company expects its annual sales growth of around 15% over the next 5 years. The company's main competitor, Miss, continues to freeze its capacity expansion plans and says it has to wait for further market recovery. From the project area, the three whole and miss the construction sequence is exactly the same.　　The company's capacity expansion plan is still based on the principle of robustness and catch-up. Industry integration is expected to open the income gap between the company and missing year by year, to the first quarter has exceeded miss, officially become the industry's largest enterprise.　　The company's future production capacity will be faster than miss, the income gap may further pull up. However, the company's market share has exceeded 27%, and in recent years there has been a slowdown in the increase in the future through mergers and acquisitions to enhance market share is the inevitable way. In particular, the establishment of field production base, will certainlyTo the regional frozen food enterprises bring direct pressure, will further enhance the company's acquisition capacity. If we can choose the regional strong brand to carry on the merger, can obtain the synergy effect.　　Therefore, we judge, three in the next few years in the frozen food industry is expected to accelerate the integration. Earnings forecasts and ratings we will increase the company's 2010-2011 earnings forecast by 3% and 6% respectively, the company is expected to return 2010-2012 per share of 0.60, 0.76 and 0.92 Yuan, of which the current stock price corresponding to the dynamic P/E ratio is 46, 36, 30 times times respectively. Given the company's market integration prospects and long-term market space, we give the company a "prudent recommendation" of the investment rating. (Huangmao Securities Research Institute)