Without a good understanding of history, there is no clear insight into the future.

If we do not understand history well, we will not have a clear insight into the future, today mainly from the perspective of Internet history and you exchange.

A picture determines what you should do?

Take a look at the first picture, the blue represents the United States, red represents China. This picture is also my history. I joined Alibaba in 2006 when Chinese Internet users were about to overtake American internet users.

These two graphs show that China spent seven or eight years, PC Internet users more than the United States. It took less than two years for China to have more mobile smartphones than the US. These two are China's Internet demographic structure, which determines what the Internet industry can do, what industry is outdated. The demographic structure decides everything, starting from these two graphs.

Why did you choose to follow Ma?

Internet companies are divided into four categories:

The first category, the new media. Most of the companies that do the media are in Beijing.

The second category, new entertainment. Including gaming companies and video companies, mainly in Shanghai.

The third category, new communications. Guangdong Telecom Management is relatively loose, Tencent QQ, NetEase mailbox to micro-letter is the main communication function.

Class fourth, good business. The internet to Zhejiang people, that is business, to Alibaba as a representative.

Therefore, China's four major internet schools are mainly divided into a political-like play, communication, can do business in these four regions. Any new internet model company can be classified as one.

Today, we will talk about four types of e-commerce in this piece.

Retail sales in China have risen 1.8 times times in the past five years, and online retailing has risen 19 times-fold in the past 5 years. I 05 with the Ma Yun, before in the Hundred homes for 7 years retail. Why join Alibaba? Because of a bet.

Taobao and a year of home sales are 8 billion. Ma said that you estimate how much money you need to double your home performance, how many people and how much time you spend. I think I'll have to open 40 stores, each store an average of 20 million dollars of investment, each shop needs at least 200 people, open fast also need three years. Ma Yun said I just add five servers, a person is not, six months can double, the result three months later doubled. At that time I felt that traditional retailing might soon be a dinosaur, so I decided to join Ali. Recently, some friends of the retail Circle said that the national statistics said that there are more than 10% retail growth, there must be water. In fact, I do not think that there is too much water, the growth of the retail industry where to go, the first ran to the four or five-line city, and the second ran to the Internet. If you do not have online, there are no four or five-line cities, this growth does not have anything to do with you. Third, four or five lines of urban traditional retail growth, 123 of the urban growth of most of the internet was taken away. Then we'll come back to the fourth picture and see why it's taken away.

"85" will lead to a qualitative change in electricity quotient

Four stages of electronic commerce

E-commerce has gone through four stages in its development.

The first phase of the Non-mainstream population to buy non-mainstream products.

Non-mainstream mainly refers to the young people who have graduated from high school to just two or three years of work, we have powerful purchasing power of the Island Pro (note: and island entrepreneur Island adjacent to call each other as "Island Pro") are the mainstream crowd.

The first stage of the internet is generally just graduated children, Amoy a little second-hand, buy a little bargain, their products are also non-mainstream products, this stage has lasted until 2006, 2007 years.

Why? Because China had little internet before 2000. You go and see the famous Internet companies you see today, their birthdays are the same, they all rose in 1999, in other words, before 2000 China had no internet.

The population of the Internet in China is not the most commonly understood. Since 80 was born in 2000 is already 21 years old, he contacted the internet most of the work from the beginning, so he is working in the Internet generation. The people born after 1985 are the real Chinese internet generation. At that time, I was in Alibaba, see Tencent rely on the game so make money, nasty, Ma said you are anxious also useless, our future users, now still small, still playing games, we dug a hole in front of them, they will fall sooner or later. They have fallen since the four quarter of last year, and Ali's entire profit, which began in the four quarter of last year, overtook Tencent. This result is not entirely because of Ma Yun, we often joke that you do not have to do this end will also occur. China without Ma Yun, E-commerce will be successful, but may be more years of exploration. The real decision is the age structure on the map, you can't do it early, and the chances are gone. In these 2001 years, Shanghai has a great E-commerce company called 8848, than the current Amazon are cattle, because they were 020, but all this started too early, behind the crowd has not grown up. The first to go is generally martyrs.

Including now a lot of start to do mobile internet also because do not understand this picture action too early. There is no way you can change this picture, so you have to go with the flow. The understanding of China's Internet population structure determines the layout and start of what you do.

The second stage is that the mainstream people occasionally surf the internet to buy Non-mainstream products. What are mainstream products and non-mainstream products? You left it can still live products are non-mainstream products, the book does not look at the most no knowledge, but really will not starve to death, clothes do not wear problems, things do not eat problems, so the book is Non-mainstream products, and clothing, food is the mainstream products.

In the third stage, the Non-mainstream people buy mainstream products. After 85, they started buying mainstream products. This stage to all engaged in the internet and E-commerce people bring a great misunderstanding, that is, online only sell cheap things and discounts. This is not the Internet's fault, nor is it the problem of E-commerce, because this time 85 can only afford to take advantage of cheap things. 25, 26-year-old people, not on the internet to buy cheap things, where he will buy cheap things.

The fourth stage, mainstream people buy mainstream products.

This time the mainstream crowd is not referring to everyone here, but already 30 85 after the. The internet changes our generation is actually still very small, we use a little bit of micro-letter, with a dot microblogging, and our next generation 85 is not comparable, and this trend is irreversible.

When I was 2008 years old, I had a judgment that 2015 years is the node of Chinese e-commerce from quantitative to qualitative change. Why? Because of the 30, 85-born people into the 30-year-old, they become the mainstream of the community.

So no matter what industry you're in, you just have to look at how old you are. You know you have a few years to go. For example, last year I invested in China's largest wedding photography Mrs. Kim, they are also our Island Pro. Why? Because after 85 is now the peak of marriage, their choice of wedding dress is not like we used to marry, go to a lot of bridal shop than parity on the set. They are particularly demanding on the quality of wedding dresses. Including our Wang Jianguo total King, also don't worry. Mother and child market is not so fast, but fast, 85 of the age of childbearing is coming, and so that time, they will be more viscous online. So the island just asked me what I was looking at recently. I'm just looking at what I'm going to buy after 85. After 85 something is about to buy, this vertical area of E-commerce will become the mainstream.

Beware of the "four Don't look" of traditional enterprises

The consumer has four stages, the merchant also has four stages. The four stages of the merchant are in line with the four stages of the consumer.

Four stages of the merchant

The first stage is invisible. When consumers are not mainstream people buy non-mainstream products, businessmen do not see e-commerce. Around the little boy to buy something online, that is not my product, I do not sell, this is the first stage.

The second stage is to despise. I have seen a lot of clothes to do the big guy, said the clothing industry water is very deep, every customer's aged is selling books, how he might sell clothes. including Gome, Su Ning, just out of the Liu Comrade also look down, so this stage is to see, but despise.

The third stage is about 2009 to 2010. Taobao's "Double 11" every year is sobering for everyone. At that time, a lot of people came to me, said how I do clothing for more than 10 years to do a billion of of the turnover, now online, a business, is 20 billion of the turnover. So at this time people just can't understand.

The fourth one is not visible. Just can't see how to go in the future. We are all here, the island neighborhood, virtual immigrants to the island. If your consumers have migrated to the Internet, you have not migrated to the past, and eventually your business, your brand, your product will be eliminated.

--two key steps of transformation

Four modes of electronic commerce in China

The first step, E-commerce consumer has four categories, first of all know their own business is which category.

The first kind of platform class, in short, online commercial real estate. Why Ma Yun with Wang Gambling, because Wang is offline commercial real estate, Ma Yun is online commercial real estate, two real estate big guy Bet. How do real estate bosses play? It is generally a mall, regardless of pricing, inventory, nothing. Such companies are more like internet companies. People look at the cat made so much money, a lot of big guys come to me, said Ma give you how much money I give you multiplied by three, Ma Yun with how much renminbi in Taobao, we give you the same dollar you do it again? I said I couldn't do it, not that I was incompetent, but that the time had passed. What is the secret to success in commercial real estate? Not the mall inside the design, the biggest success secret is that you buy the land to be cheap enough. Now the internet on the PC end of the enclosure era has ended, when the development of an active user Taobao only need 2 to 3 yuan, the equivalent of an acre of commercial 200,000 yuan. Now it costs 100 yuan to develop an active user, even if you run into a good operation team of 70 pieces. Because the "ground" is too expensive, so the mall on the PC side of the era has passed, now mobile end to develop active users or relatively cheap, but such a cheap "premium" will not exceed 1.5. 1.5 After the mobile Internet solicitation costs, drainage costs will be close to the PC.

The second category is online retailers, such as one shop, Beijing east. A lot of online retailers are really losing money, where is the way out? It is also very simple, similar to our hotel in front of the Carrefour, which is the world's best turnover Carrefour. What are their patterns? Retail does not earn money, the retail building to the second floor, the third floor, while the first floor to rent out, the use of my people collect rents are also very lucrative, so the next step for online retailers is to run there, using my passenger flow to do mall.

The third category is to do the online brand. For example, free brand visitors. E-commerce If do platform to be big quickly, but do brand should be fast. Brand is not about how big you are, but whether you are fast enough. Today, I have invested 8 projects, not one of the business operators, because one is not in line with the true value of the creation of standards, are blindly to do the scale, and do not know what the benefits of scale?

Four is O2O, the line must get through.

The second step is to ascertain the characteristics of your industry.

In the traditional industry, we should pay attention to what kind of traditional industries you belong to. Because some traditional industries his original model is very vulnerable to the impact of the Internet.

There are four different levels of impact.

The first category, for some products easy to be the data of the industry invited to the immortal also have no way. For example, I used to rent DVDs when I was living abroad.

The second category, the enterprise's products are extremely standardized, will also disappear, 3C things easy to standardize. I have a colleague in my 85 who says he has never been to a supermarket in his life, only to a convenience store. This is very scary, standardized products do not need to go to the store to spend.

The third category, the product is not standardized, but also can have a long tail effect. This kind of product will benefit from the Internet, this time the offline experience becomes very important, many big-name fashion stores, flagship stores, experience shops are still open, but do not expect to generate sales from the store.

The fourth category, if your industry is product plus service, then you can benefit from the Internet is even greater. Offline shop not only will not perish, but also can vigorously develop. Because he sells the service is cannot replace on the net, for example wedding photography, for example the dining, washes the head, the computer impossibly high technology to that degree.

Sum up. Ma Yun proposed e-commerce, that is because he had no business, he is barefoot, basically smashed the spot. And you have business, I suggest you consider the problem is the electronic business, not e-commerce. You're not doing anything. You are E-commerce, you have a physical store offline, there is the original business that called business Electronic. How to understand? Use the internet to find out what your original bottleneck is, to solve your problems. The Internet should be a solution to your problems, not to bring new problems to your existing businesses. So I believe that the island with the island Pro, if it is a traditional enterprise, take the lead should consider not to become e-commerce, but consider, my original business platform which links can use the Internet e-commerce means to solve. E-commerce belongs to Ma Yun, business electronic is belong to everyone.