Xiaomi, Huawei and Lenovo, three different modes behind it (turn)

January 15 participated in the Xiaomi product launch, just as Lei June on the stage to tell the various functions of millet Note I suddenly realized that Xiaomi, Huawei, Lenovo's grappling to 2015 years has completely entered a new stage. In the function and experience it is true that we will be keen to catch up with each other but in fact has not pulled too much distance, the final decision is likely to be the model behind the mobile phone. This is like a national war, the outcome of the victory no longer depends on a city, but depends on the comprehensive national strength.

　　The business model behind Xiaomi, Huawei and Lenovo

Although the mobile phone that is presented to the user is similar, it seems to me that the underlying pattern behind the three families is fundamentally different.

Lenovo is a classic business management faction. The basic logic of this faction is to do the same thing, through the management optimization I am faster than you do, do good, low cost. For the latter in the industry, it is often necessary to transcend the leaders in the existing system by means of such methods. This has been reflected in many traditional products such as copiers, cameras, and PCs. Lenovo in the PC in this way eventually become the boss of the market.

Huawei is a technology school. The basic logic of this faction is that I want to lead the technology, to do what you do not come out, and ultimately through this product differences, open and the opponent's distance, so Huawei has its own chip.

Millet is a platform faction. The basic logic of this faction is that mobile phones are no longer simply a center of entertainment and communication, but also the center of life. In this way, you can air purifiers, boxes, televisions, routers and so on, each battle to the one is equal to the mobile phone added a value added.

In this case, Huawei and Lenovo's business model is more traditional, it needs to rely on hardware to make money, millet model and the Internet companies are similar, the entrance can not make money, if the ecological, the entrance is also the mobile phone can even free.

　　The key to winning between models

To do a little analysis of these three patterns, we can find that the key to victory and defeat is actually very obvious.

If the technology tree can get rid of the homogeneity of the product, to create a user-aware unique characteristics of the product, the Huawei model will kill the other two seconds. Otherwise it will be because of the huge investment, but the gross margin is not to hang off. It's not hard to understand, for example, if Huawei can make a one-month battery, others will be able to top the day, it is clear that Huawei can gain an absolute advantage. But if you make a lot of effort, or the supply chain can provide the average level, the product at a user-perceived level is completely similar to the friends, it is equivalent to a lot of independent research and development completely unproductive, this research and development will become a burden. So Huawei's model is indeed the same as climbing Mt. Everest on the north slope, the teeth climbed up to the list of mountains small, but the process of climbing the possibility of falling dead is very large.

If the platform can be successful, it will undoubtedly kill the management of the second. The platform is a bit like a Spartan phalanx to the creeps, and the creeps have little chance. The key to the advantage of the platform is the network effect and the ability to attack two times. The net effect is that the more things you use in the platform, the greater the benefits. Imagine if one day, millet to the home hardware used to do all the time, from the TV to the refrigerator and so on, and each one is connected to the router and can be controlled through the Xiaomi's mobile phone, and each has a price advantage, then what? Obviously this time will form the network effect, the more you use millet products you gain more, you alone at the expense of the mobile phone can be the function of the remote control, you waste the router can store the function of the TV alone. The reason is very simple China Telecom will use, it is broadband, IPTV, telephone bundled together to do a package, you use it is very cheap, I am surrounded by a lot of people are so caught by telecommunications, and we even ignored the telecom phone is not good to buy the fact.

Two strikes the ability to say, if this model really become, it can really profit margin for retail mobile phone, even let mobile phone free, as long as it can in other places, such as advertising, content to the huge flow of cash. Of course, the disadvantage of this model is more obvious, it will be in a critical point before the "on the money" state, once the money, the middle of the hanging off, the model is not good. To see how much money Ali burned before struggling, this will have a more intuitive experience.

Only climbing the science and technology of the tree and the gap between the average technical level of the supply chain, to create a platform to create a user-approved network effect, to fight the management of the opportunity. At this time Lenovo may again copy their stories on the PC, through the cost advantage in the long-term victory, but this model seems to win even if the result is not very good, 2014 Lenovo's gross margin of about 13%, general products such as PC, mobile phone should be below this value.

　　What kind of model is more likely to be in the future?

Guessing the model of the platform and the mode of business management that will win is easier, because as long as we believe that the Internet will be more deeply involved in our lives, it is clear that the platform model will prevail. This is not really a guess, but the reality has happened, Nest and even all kinds of hand ring and so on is not already there!

Guessing the model and platform model of climbing science and technology tree The one that will win is a lot harder, and the key question behind it is: is a horizontal integration model winning or a vertically integrated model winning?

The extreme case of climbing a tech tree is that all the key components are self-made, such as: chips (design and production capacity), display panels, flash memory and so on all themselves can be done, it is like copying a Samsung out, is a thorough vertical integration.

In fact, the most thorough vertical integration is now the apple of the heyday. At the time of the PC, Apple even had to make the most of its own production. But in that round, Apple's vertical integration was defeated by the horizontal integration represented by Microsoft. But Apple has moved back to a game on the IPod and IPhone, proving that vertical integration can be a success.

So this is a very difficult to predict the result of the problem, but if you have to choose one, on the phone I will choose the platform mode winning more, the main reason is two:

First, analogy to the history of the development of the PC, we can think of the two key mobile phones are operating systems and CPUs (including related programs). And in the mobile phone operating system is inherently open source, the CPU to use their own programs to overcome the existing high-pass as a representative of several, the equivalent of a PC manufacturer also handle the CPU, the difficulty is too high. So the more likely result is that we all depend on the same ecological chain, coexistence and co-prosperity. From a national point of view, Huawei's Noah's Ark plan is extremely respectable (including Xiaomi, Lenovo may actually benefit from it), but from the point of view of creating products, this direction at least in the short-term is not good.

Second, in the mobile phone this product, the future technical supply will be more and more abundant, so even in the technical lead, may not be able to because the technology in the user-perceived range of huge differences. Windows 7 is no doubt a long way from XP, but for many users the difference is not that big. The overall experience that can open the gap is not primarily based on technology. How many people think Apple's lead is mainly due to advanced technology? So I think that the basic direction of Huawei (including Samsung) does not fit in with the basic trends of the industry.

Of course, this is only based on the inevitable logic of the analysis, a lot of accidental factors on the specific results will have greater influence.

　　Conclusion

After the millet Note released, the mobile phone has become a high middle and low all over the battle of the situation, the 2015 PK will be more intense, but if the above analysis is right, then the key to victory has been and for a time who win the association is not big, Whether the model they depend on can produce tangible benefits is increasingly becoming the key to victory.

http://news.cnblogs.com/n/513542/

Xiaomi, Huawei and Lenovo, three different modes behind it (turn)