13th released economic data food prices rose or hit new highs

The consumer price index (CPI), which hit a 3.3%-point high in July, may be up to 3.4% in August. According to industry insiders, because the weight of pork in the CPI accounted for about 9%, since late June, pork rose 8 weeks, or nearly 20%, the current market is expected to continue to increase the CPI in August, it is possible to reach 3.5% level.　　According to the statistics bureau's schedule, the August economic data will be released on September 13 (next Monday). Rising food prices are still the main reason for CPI expectations.　　The National Bureau of Statistics released the August three phase of the 50 cities, the average price changes in the main food shows that the vast majority of food prices are on the upward trend. Most chief economists believe the third quarter was the highest in the CPI trend of the year.　　In short, inflation pressures are not too big at any point in time to peak. Li Mingzhong, chief macro analyst of National Yuan Securities, noted that inflationary pressures in September will continue to remain high in the year, raising interest rates, especially the possibility of asymmetric interest rate increases.　　But the vast majority of chief economists vetoed the possibility of a recent rate hike, with the estimated interest rates and reserve requirements not being further adjusted for the year. Compared to the same period last year, the main food prices soared, the second half of this year, food prices caused by the tail-cutting factor is relatively weak.　　In addition to the growing signs of slower growth in the second half of the year and a weakening of inflation expectations, the industry generally sees no justification for raising interest rates, even if the CPI is expected to be high in 7 or 82 months.　　With the CPI expected to be more innovative, the August Industrial Price Index (PPI) may continue to fall, expected to be lower than the July level of 4.8%. Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst at Bank of communications, said the likely decline was mainly attributable to falling international commodity prices and lower external input inflation pressures.　　The continuing decline in PPI reflects slowing demand growth in the real economy, causing companies to slow investment production and, to some extent, curbing the rise in the prices of manufactured goods and reducing market expectations for inflation. The continued slow down of PPI is consistent with the expected slowdown in the second half of the industrial value.　　The growth rate of industrial value in July is relatively lower and is expected to continue to decline in August.　　Ministry of Industry Monitoring and Coordination Bureau director Xing recently said that the second half of this year, industrial growth will fall to a certain extent, is expected to drop to about 10%, but still up to 13% a year. For the second half of the economic policy, most experts believe that the policy will remain stable in the second half of the year, will not change the credit target, and will not change the real estate policy. But some insiders believe the policy will be looser than it is now. Given the likely slowdown in the first half of next year, the policy cycle has bottomed out and will shift from the quarter to growth support. (Reporter in Beijing/Lu Tianling intern/Zhudan)