A perspective of China's foreign exchange reserve breakthrough 2 trillion dollars behind

Xinhua Beijing, July 15 (Xinhua News agency reporter Wang, Jiang Rui, Yiu Junfang) After a brief pause at the beginning of the year, China's foreign exchange reserve growth pace in the two quarter again accelerated. According to central bank data, as of the first half of 2009, China's national foreign exchange reserves exceeded the 2 trillion U.S. dollar mark, this number is the world's second largest foreign exchange reserves, Japan, twice times.　　And even more surprising is that, in the more than 180 billion dollar of the first half of the external storage increment, 95% from the two quarter. Why does the growth rate of foreign exchange reserve increase again? What are some of the new hidden worries behind growth?　　What are the new indications for the use of China's foreign exchange reserves? Why the second quarter of the reserve to regain the high pace of growth with the gradual economic stability and the expected impact of the renminbi appreciation, the pattern of negative foreign-exchange reserves that had emerged in December this year has been replaced by the current month-by-month climb, with the figures showing that in the two quarter of three months, the monthly new reserves were 55.2 billion U.S. dollars, 80.6 billion dollars,　　42.1 billion dollars, much higher than the modest growth in foreign reserves in the months after the financial crisis. "Compared with the first quarter, the rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves in the two quarter shows that international investors are bullish on China's economic trends and have a close relationship with China's economic fundamentals."　　Zhuang, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank, told Xinhua.　　Compared to Japan, the European Union and other economies such as the United States, China's economy in the two quarter of a steady rebound in the signs of market forecasts in the two quarter of China's economic growth rate of 8%, the future towards a good trend is more obvious. Experts pointed out that the rapid growth of foreign reserves behind, but also hiding the figure of international hot money. "Market, property market and other asset markets have always been the international hot money tight stare investment area, our country this market in the two quarter obviously warmer, attracted a lot of hot money, this is the two quarter of the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves important reasons."　　"Zhuang said. Hiding behind the Kao the high risk of foreign exchange reserves has been regarded by experts as a double-edged sword. On the one hand, under the background of the financial crisis and the global economic recession, high foreign exchange reserves can be used as the regulator of international finance, which can provide the guarantee for the national financial stability and crisis relief.　　But at a time when global liquidity is rampant, the excessive growth of reserves is undoubtedly fraught with risks, causing concern among experts. Changbaoliang, an economist at the National Information Center, said that the biggest danger of capital inflows is the emergence of asset bubbles, which are not unrelated to the current stock and housing price increases. "In addition to blowing a big asset bubble, leading to inflation, the inflow of hot money will make the renminbi face upward pressure, and the appreciation of the renminbi will adversely affect our exports."　　"Changbaoliang said.　　Foreign exchange expert Chen Bingcai that the further formation of high reserves increases the management difficulty of the foreign Exchange Management department, because regardless of the composition of the reserves, its value is in the risk of constant change. This year, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank have adopted quantitative easing of monetary policy, the medium and long term global liquidity rampant a few suspense, this will undoubtedly give China's foreign exchange reserves of the preservation of the burden of a thick shadow, such asIt is a big challenge for the management department to avoid shrinking reserves. How to resolve the worries of reserve Kao to avoid the troubles caused by reserve Kao, the adjustment and effective use of the external storage structure is very important. Among the many claims of effective use of foreign exchange reserves, there has been a high demand for more strategic assets, more energy and resource reserves.　　But experts point out that China, as a big buyer in the international market, will naturally sharply increase the price of such assets once it has been heavily involved in a particular asset or commodity, and will instead bring in unnecessary reserve losses. Encouraging enterprises to "go out" is becoming a way for the authorities to defuse the risk of foreign exchange reserves. "The Government encourages enterprises ' to go out ', to a certain extent, to reduce domestic foreign exchange reserves, through loans for oil and other specific methods, China to convert some of US dollar assets into oil and gas resources such as assets, which is to adjust the structure of foreign exchange reserves, to promote the diversification of foreign exchange reserves, to　　"Zhang Bin, deputy director of the international financial Room of the World Academy of Social Sciences, China.　　In the first half of China's petrochemical enterprises with Russia, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Venezuela and other countries signed a series of total value of 44 billion U.S. dollars "loan for oil" agreement, these are regarded as the use of foreign reserves to support enterprises out of overseas success stories. However, some experts pointed out that the solution to the high risk of foreign exchange reserves, these methods are only "symptoms" rather than "radical" strategy. Yu Yu, director of the Institute of Social Sciences, said that this may solve the stock problem in foreign exchange reserves, but it cannot solve the problem of traffic growth. He believes that the key to solve the problem is to take measures to realize the transformation of economic growth mode and realize the balanced development of economy.