ABC Pricing psychological Warfare: hanging appetite-low posture-guaranteed distribution

Wang 2.52~2.68 yuan/shares, the final disclosure of the initial inquiry interval, so many people surprised by the AgBank A-share IPO pricing "low posture." Not so long ago, in the face of the buyer's incessant singing and questioning, AgBank's top executives responded with a tough attitude of "less than 3 yuan's price is unacceptable" on several occasions.　　The main underwriters ' team, including Citic Securities, Galaxy Securities and Guotai, also priced the enquiry interval at more than 3 yuan.　　The market was "hanging high appetite" dropped to the "low posture" without warning, a rather dramatic scene followed by: With the market is generally worried about the issue of Agricultural Bank issued to bring pressure on the market, a a-share preliminary inquiry results of the announcement, the Agricultural Bank IPO immediately converted to "good." However, a fund industry close to the ABC IPO said. "This is a strategy to make the market expectations higher, and then adjust the pricing range to a modest level to ensure the success of the release."　　"A psychological war, in the four major state-owned banks, the finale of the reform of the game." ABC Bank Underwriting play to "psychological tactics" ABC pricing, all sides of the game throughout. After the issuance of approval on June 13, the game of buyers and sellers has entered the white-hot state.　　For a time, there was talk of an empty a-share banking and AgBank's valuations, with institutional investors questioning AgBank's county-level business risks and asset quality. After the roadshow began, the sellers began to declare their position. Gongsheng, vice president of ABC, stressed on several occasions that "a price below 3 yuan is not acceptable."　　"Subsequently, various underwriters have sung more, Citic, Galaxy and Guotai three main underwriters given a shares of a reasonable value range, respectively, 3.02 yuan ~4.07 yuan, 3.17 yuan ~3.65 yuan, 3.2 yuan ~3.91 yuan."　　In line with the target of more than 3 yuan, ABC executives began to tell investors the story of "ABC's rapid growth". Data show that in 2009, AgBank's net profit growth rate of 25.3%, ranked first in four rows. Net profit rose to 38.5% in the first quarter of 2010. Along with the economic development, Agricultural Bank in the past three years, the compound growth rate of 19.1%, loan compound growth rate of 18.8%. If GDP remains at 8% per cent growth, deposit growth will remain at 12%~15% levels in the future and loan growth will remain at 15%~18% levels.　　The pace of AgBank's progress is not unpleasant. At the same time, ABC marketing different "selling points" in both international and domestic markets. In the international Advance Roadshow, AgBank's share, position and potential in the vast county market have seen the vitality of some international institutional investors. At home, AgBank's top executives in the roadshow are trying to convince investors that AgBank is the same as ICBC and CCB.　　June 21, Shanghai Road Show site, Agricultural Bank Asset and Liability management Department General manager Zhang is blunt, ABC is the standard meaning of the City bank. On the surface, buyers and sellers in the pricing differences have also been unable to calm down, the market speculation in the 1.905 yuan to 4.07 yuan between the span of a painting of a songLine diagram. An industry insider who attended an H-share issue analyst at ABC said the seller had 1.5~2.3 times the price of ABC's H shares in the PB interval before the release, and the buyer's agency considered the seller overly optimistic.　　Many buyers at the meeting said AgBank's H-shares were priced at 1.5 times times ~2 times before the release of the PB range before they could be considered. However, the fund industry said that the real idea of ABC is to be priced at 2.7 yuan/share. "ABC is the idea after the institutional investors roadshow, and this attitude has been quite clear to our company roadshow."　　"he said. Inquiry space: Seller's middle and upper range of buyer's next section although 2.52~2.68 yuan/stock is lower than the general expectations of the previous market, it is an acceptable and reasonable price range for both buyers and sellers.　　Market participants believe that the current issue price is located in the next range of investment bank issue, and the market can accept the upper and middle range.　　As the last listed large state-owned commercial bank, AgBank's investment value is undoubtedly scarce, but the market and investors ' knowledge and acceptance of ABC's value is finally reflected in ABC's pricing.　　2.68 yuan/stock price corresponding to the Agricultural Bank of 2010 PB about 1.6 times times, the current ICBC and CCB 2010 PB are 1.8 times times above, this level of valuation relative to ICBC and CCB about 10% of the discount, and the market on the average valuation level of small and medium-sized joint-stock banks, to be higher than 10%~20%. These fund industry personage thinks, regardless of agricultural bank oneself thinks in "three agriculture" aspect and city business have how big advantage, but cannot deny, it is relatively poor in four lines, the problem exists objectively. "And in the mechanism, management, Agricultural Bank may not be comparable to the joint-stock banks in the market for many years to fight accumulation." Therefore, 1.6 times times PB is not cheap, relatively reasonable. ”