AgBank's short-term "break" is unlikely

Agricultural Bank shares in the August 10 plate again hit the issue price of 2.68 yuan.　　Taking into account the role of the Agricultural Bank on the short-term trend of the financial sector, as well as the weight of the financial sector in the broad market index, analysts believe that the bank's ability to keep the price will have a significant impact on the short-term market. "2.68" The defensive line again tested in a number of trading days after the concussion, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market August 10 adjustment. With market adjustment, soon after the listing of the large stock of agricultural Bank of China to attract investors eyeball, because the shares again hit the 2.68 yuan issue price, AgBank has been listed as a short-term indicator of the operation of the market.　　Now the wind vane is clearly weakening, causing investors to generate a market or will turn the downward concern. As the third largest weight of the Shanghai Composite Index, the Agricultural bank did have a significant impact on market sentiment after its listing. After the IPO on July 15 this year, Agricultural bank has been depressed for a long time, the stock price lingering near the issue of prices, so that investors worry about the share of the stock break may, this worry also led to the market in the Agricultural Bank after the listing of two trading days rather depressed. But starting from July 19, AgBank's share price has strengthened gradually, and the financial sector in the A-share market has rebounded steadily. Statistics show that from July 19 to July 29, the financial Services index of Shen Wan Rose 6.61%.　　Financial sector rally to rebound market injected a greater stability expectations, you can find that the Shanghai and Shenzhen market is starting from July 19 rebound, and once out of the force empty market.　　Analysts believe that as a new listing of the large banks, agricultural bank at least in the market sentiment will have a significant impact on the banking sector and even the financial sector, and the financial sector as the largest market weight group, its performance on the overall market impact is self-evident. The current "break" is less likely, so what is the probability that AgBank's short break will drag down the financial sector and the overall market?　　Analysts say AgBank's "break" is unlikely in the short term, meaning it is less likely to be a short-term drag on the market. First, the overall valuation of bank shares is at the bottom of history. Statistics show that the current banking sector 2010 earnings multiples of 9.4 times times. Citic Securities analysts pointed out that the historical data show that the domestic bank shares in the 10 times-fold PE level in the case only occurred in September 2008-January 2009, when the macroeconomic background is the economic growth rate of the bottom, relatively loose policy, high bank performance drop. At present, the policy and regulatory environment is warming, financing platform loan provisioning policy is better than expected, bank share performance may be stronger than the previous market pessimistic expectations, these factors are likely to lead to the Bank Stock Valuation Center moved to 15 times times PE. As a result, banks ' valuations continue to be relatively small in value, which means that even if ABC breaks, a deep adjustment in bank stocks is a minor probability event.　　At the same time, the weakening of the overall downward expectation of bank stocks will also enhance the support of AgBank's IPO price. Second, AgBank has a valuation advantage over other large bank stocks. Statistical displayShows that the current net rate of Agricultural Bank is 1.79 times times, but the same as the state-owned large banks, ICBC and CCB's market net rate is 2.1 times times and 2.05 times times respectively.　　A relatively lower valuation level will undoubtedly increase the stability of AgBank's stock price in the short run. Third, AgBank H shares have a positive impact on the exercise of "green shoes". Agricultural Bank of Hong Kong, the exchange of shares announced July 29, the company received a joint global coordinator notice, its decision to exercise the full allotment right. In this respect, Yuan securities analysts said the "green shoe" mechanism was designed to maintain the company's stock price after the smooth, ABC H shares in advance to exercise the "green shoes", indicating the relevant parties to the future stable operation of a bullish price.　　In addition, some analysts pointed out that this weekend, the Agricultural Bank A-share "green shoes" mechanism will expire, from the perspective of maximizing the benefits, the exercise of "green shoes" is still the best choice for a A-share main underwriter, and "green shoes" mechanism to exercise the premise is the ABC A shares can not Of course, AgBank is not a determinant of market trends, if the future market downturn, agbank short-term, especially in the green shoe mechanism after the expiration of the "break" risk still exists, investors may be able to determine whether the rally has been the end of one of the signs.