Agency predicts May CPI growth will exceed 3%

As food prices continue to linger high and the impact of the tail-cutting factor expands, several institutions forecast a year-on-year increase in CPI in May over April, and may be the first to exceed 3% per cent of the year's scheduled targets.　　Historical data show that April CPI year-on-year increase of 6.8% 2.8%,ppi year-on-year. Affected by seasonal factors, the Ministry of Commerce's Agricultural product price index entered into a down channel after May, but compared with the history of its seasonal decline in the range is relatively small, food price chain decline significantly smaller than in previous years.　　In addition, due to the lower base of the same period last year, the impact of the May warping factor is still increasing, may push the CPI to continue upward.　　WANGUO macro analyst Li Huiyong estimates that, due to seasonal reasons, the price of the chain fell in May, but only around 0.2%, significantly smaller than the same period last year, 1.8% of the level, so the May food price increase will be significantly expanded, which will promote the CPI rise rather than decline.　　In May, he predicted, the CPI rose by about 3.1% per cent year-on-year, with the first warning of more than 3%. CICC's forecasts for CPI are basically the same.　　According to CICC's forecasts, the May food CPI chain will be 0.4% to 0.2%, Non-food chain between 0%-0.2%, so that CPI growth rate of about 3% to 3.2%.　　Societe Generale forecasts that the May CPI may be in the chain between-0.2-0.1%, and the tail factor compared with April will be significantly up 0.3%, which will push the CPI continued to fall into the 2.9%-3.2%, the median in 3%.　　However, as the European debt crisis led to a sharp drop in international commodity prices, the market expects a year-on-year rise in PPI May to ease inflation expectations.　　As the Greek debt crisis deepened, May international market crude oil prices fell sharply, NYMEX crude oil futures prices fell to about 71 U.S. dollars per barrel, the biggest decline in six months.　　At the same time, China's Ministry of Commerce production Price index in May, the decline showed a trend of expansion, minerals, non-ferrous metals, energy products, chemical products, rubber and other prices have significantly decreased.　　CICC believes that, as international commodity prices plummeted, domestic industrial product price pressure eased, the May PPI year-on-year decline may be around 0.5%, Year-on-year will be lower than April, about 6.3%. Li Huiyong also predicts that May PPI may fall to around 6.2% per cent year-on-year.　　However, there are also institutions predicting that May PPI may still be slightly higher than in April. Societe Generale believes that as a result of the May domestic product prices did not adjust, the basic raw material prices in the downstream interbank price reaction also exists in the time lag, therefore, it is expected that the May PPI chain may still show positive growth, between 0%-0.5%, Year-on-year will likely fall into the 6.7%-7.3% range, median 7%, Slightly up 0.2% from last month.