April macroeconomic data mixed with foreign trade fear of slowing economic recovery

Every reporter Zhu Xiaowen Jiangni from Beijing April Chinese real economy performance is mixed, but the bright spot is not many.　　At present, the Chinese economy is still in the bottom of the process, the rebound will take time, and the worse foreign trade may drag on China's overall economic recovery. This week, the National Bureau of Statistics, the general Administration of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce and other ministries announced the April core macro data, in addition to FDI, almost all out.　　Through data such as CPI, PPI, industrial value added, import and export, and social and retail consumer goods, will macroeconomic experts come up with a judgment on China's economic situation? Yesterday, the State Council Development Research Center, Cass, China Macro-economic society, Guotai, Merrill Lynch and other 5 institutions of the Economist, said the above data, the April Chinese real economy performance is mixed, but the bright spot is not much.　　Experts said that China's economy is still in the process of bottoming out, the rebound will take time, the most worrying is that foreign trade is likely to drag on China's overall economic recovery.　　The situation judged weaker than expected. It's hard to say warmer. Wu Qing, director of the Financial Research Institute at the State Council's Development Research Center, said the data for the April could not be judged by the economic recovery, there are some good indicators or signs, but are not sure they can be sustained. Li Thunderbolt, chief economist of Guotai, believes that the bottom is gradually forming from April macro data, but the rebound is still to come. He said the economy had seen a clear bottom in the first quarter, but the economic situation in April was slightly weaker than expected. "In the first quarter, especially in March, the signs of economic recovery are obvious, we all expect a more violent rebound, but April went a gentle slope."　　"The most notable feature of the first 4 months of economic operation is the low investment in high industry and the small impact of investment on industrial growth," said Wang Jian, Secretary-General of China's Macroeconomics society.　　And foreign investment banks are relatively optimistic, Merrill Lynch economist Lu the previous April macroeconomic data of the comprehensive evaluation is that domestic demand is good, external demand is relatively weak. Economic growth of domestic demand showed strong 1-4 months, urban fixed assets investment 3.7082 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.5%. Over the same period, the total retail sales of consumer goods 3,874,120,000,000 yuan, an increase of 15%. "Both investment and retail sales are strong, and if the price factor is removed, the data will be better."　　"Lu said. But in fact, the total retail consumption of consumer goods and residents in the content is different, the former sales to enterprises, businesses, administrative units of retail sales does not belong to residents consumption.　　Mr. Xu, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, published an article on the website of the Bureau of Statistics yesterday that the first quarter of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods actually increased by 15.9%, and the real growth rate was less than 9%. Production, April, the national scale of industrial enterprises above the increase in value year-on-year growth of 7.3%, compared with the March drop 1%. Jin Yu, director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Academy of Social Sciences, analyses that industrial growth in 2009 will depend mainly on investment.Industrial growth will pick up slowly after the first half of the year, possibly showing a "U"-shaped trend. Wu Qing said that the April data is not a bright spot, consumption is basically the most gratifying on the one hand, part of the support of economic growth. Investment data are also quite eye-catching.　　Li Thunderbolt said that the current high investment growth can promote the improvement of industrial value added. Economic worries demand a sustained downturn recovery in the face of "bottlenecks" although the official and CLSA April PMI, which was released earlier this month, showed an expansion of China's manufacturing sector and added a bright glow to the March-year rebound, the April figures released this week added to the fog of the economic situation. Most notable is the January-April increase in industrial value increased by 7.3%, the growth rate fell.　　The export of foreign trade has not improved, becoming the main cause of the increase in industrial value. Wu Qing pointed out that the global economic depression is still continuing, external demand will continue to be depressed, in the future will be a big negative impact on our country. Relative to the strength of domestic demand, LU that there is no continuing deterioration in external demand, but there is no significant improvement. "At the U-shaped bottom, it has stabilized.　　"Jin Yu that the export-oriented industries, such as textiles, garments, electronics and automobiles, will face a very serious situation under the influence of falling external demand and poor export." Accounted for half of the export of mechanical and electrical products, April exports fell 22.2% year-on-year, the chain growth of 6.1%. China Electrical and Mechanical products import and export Chamber of Commerce related to the "daily economic news" that from the single month of data can not be a light word warmer. Because external demand has not really widened.　　To judge the export warmer to be based on two points: first, external demand for the boost, the second is the increase in the number of business orders. The already worrying external trade figures add to the concern that the real growth rate of net exports of goods and services is negative, contrary to the trend of growth in trade balances.　　Despite a 53.6% per cent increase in the nominal trade surplus in the United States dollar, the real growth in exports of goods and services in renminbi is a significant negative, in contrast to the trend. Economic foresight needs to be prepared for long-term adjustment ahead of the future economic trends, Lee Thunderbolt, the economy after years of rapid growth, it is unlikely to return to the original situation, but a return to the balance point. "We must prepare for long-term economic adjustment." "He believes that China's economic restructuring needs to be boosted by domestic demand, so the government is determined to increase its liabilities." At present, it is worth paying attention to the effect of the implementation of economic stimulus policy, that is, whether it is used in projects that are closely related to people's livelihood and whether there is duplication. Moreover, the policy needs to strengthen the direct people's livelihood investment, rather than the indirect livelihood input, the financial revenue should take the money directly to the low-income stratum, to subsidize the unemployed person.　　Local governments also want to change the traditional economic growth model, and to change the growth rate of residents ' income has been lower than the economic growth situation. Wu Qing that because of China's export-oriented growth model, China's economy is not in fact earlier than the economic recovery in the US and Europe. It takes at least 5 years to change the pattern. At the same time, he believes that the next round of stimulus should now be considered andSaid there is no objection to any further expansion of fiscal spending. Lu that the effect of the stimulus package is already apparent. The biggest and most effective investment in investment, especially in infrastructure. The next stage of economic growth is driven mainly by investment, which is expected to stabilize between 25%~30%. In addition, private investment is expected to become the "baton" of government investment.　　In stimulating private investment, cutting interest rates and approving more projects are effective policy measures. Lu that the direct contribution of exports to economic growth is about 18% per cent, and that the U.S.-Japan economic growth will be positive in the second half of the year, so the contribution of exports to the economy will increase. "He thinks it's harder to push consumption relative to investment and exports," he said. In the short term, government subsidies, tax cuts and credit policies can play a role, such as home appliances to the countryside.　　In addition, the issue of consumer coupons in difficult economic times can also try. News link the Bank of China Banking Regulatory Commission: The economic operation is positive change May 13, the People's Bank, the CBRC held a joint symposium on money and Credit in Beijing. The meeting held that the economic movement had been positively changed and the situation was better than expected. Recently, the rapid growth of monetary credit is the embodiment of the effective conduction of moderately loose monetary policy under special circumstances, which is beneficial to restrain deflation expectation, strengthen confidence and support steady and rapid development of national economy, should be fully affirmed. NBD