Banks say they can withstand the pressure of a 30% drop in house prices

Real estate New Deal if the price falls, Bank mortgage asset quality will be affected?　　The latest round of commercial banks ' "physical examination" gives the answer – even if prices fall by 30%, the rate of non-performing loans will not rise significantly.　　However, everything is still the feeling of the bank, the real ability to resist pressure still needs market testing. The bank said in Thursday, Bank of communications, Deputy Governor Qian in the performance briefing, the bank has been in accordance with the requirements of the CBRC pressure test.　　The test results showed that real estate prices fell 30%, development loan non-performing rate increased 1.2%, personal mortgage non-performing rate increased by 0.9%. Qian said, because the bank of real estate loans accounted for relatively low, fully grasp the digestion and absorption of this part of the problem. "Of course, the impact is likely to be greater if prices fall more sharply or if there is systemic risk."　　"And in the first quarterly performance meeting with brokerage analysts, construction Bank of the above test results of the bank said that the 30% decline in the impact of the bank's non-performing loans" and the bank is roughly equivalent, may be slightly optimistic.　　Hong Qi, President of Minsheng Bank, gave a more optimistic answer at a recent media meeting, saying that even a 40% drop in house prices would not affect the quality of the bank's assets. CICC's 4th report also gave the same estimate: House prices fell 30% per cent and banks ' non-performing loans for real estate development and mortgages did not rise significantly.　　' This is the result of the information that the company learned from the bank, not just the company's forecasts, ' analysts at CICC said in an interview with the first financial daily. Prior to the CBRC's second economic and financial Situation analysis briefing held in 2010, the CBRC chairman Liu said that to actively implement the national regulatory policy, strengthen land reserve loan management, strictly control the risk of real estate development loans, the implementation of dynamic, differentiated management of individual housing loan policy,　　Strict restrictions on a variety of nominal speculation and speculative housing, the major medium-sized banks need to carry out a quarterly real estate loan pressure testing work. The risk of leveraged home purchase according to reporters understand that the bank's mortgage pressure test is to determine the "National Housing Boom Index" and the impact of mortgage quality relationship. At the same time, the calculation model of the risk rating and default probability of the mortgage customer in the bank's internal rating system is used to get the default rate change of the mortgage customers under the established house price decline.　　Combined with the above two aspects, the results of the overall mortgage stress test are introduced. A joint-stock Bank Risk department head 4th in an interview, said the pressure test conclusion is established, and bank loan portfolio, portfolio closely related.　　Take mortgage loans as an example, test the impact of housing prices on the quality of mortgages, depends on the overall mortgage portfolio, the proportion of speculative or leveraged housing demand, the decline in housing demand for rigid loans has little impact. "The results of the various stress tests are at a relatively modest level and if the test conclusions are set up, it is entirely possible to withstand a 30 per cent decline in the current profitability and availability of the banks," he said.% of the pressure.　　Said the head of the risk department of the joint-stock bank.　　But he also said that the pressure test should pay close attention to the cost of interest rates, the increase in interest rates will lead to a relatively rapid increase in the proportion of home buyers income, mortgage loan non-performing rate and delinquency rate may rise, and then the bank's asset quality and profitability has a greater negative impact.　　Still a good asset. It is worth mentioning that a number of banking industry insiders said in an interview that in the case of Shing difficulty, the mortgage is still a relatively good asset in the commercial loan portfolio.　　Qian that the real estate industry now and in the future will be a very important pillar of China's economy, although now the real estate market overheating and part of the bubble, but in the long term the industry has prospects, so to maintain a certain real estate business ratio. "The fall in house prices is not an immediate process," said the head of the risk department of the joint-stock bank. There is little likelihood of a 30%~40%.　　He believes that the current regulation mainly from the demand, the direct result is a decline in real estate transactions, but the price does not move, the next 3-5 years, the rigid demand for urban housing in China still exuberant. It may not be safe. Real estate lending has been a market concern for the "stealth bombs" that could worsen the quality of bank assets, and one of the regulatory priorities for regulators. No reason: Real estate-related loans account for nearly 20% of total banking loans. According to a statistic of Societe Generale Securities, as of the end of 2009, the proportion of individual real estate mortgage loans in listed banks accounted for 16.36% of total loans.　　The risk of real estate development loans goes on.　　Even market analysts worry that once the housing market is in the doldrums, will banks ' land reserve loans risk? CCB in the first quarter results of the meeting on this issue response analysts said, from the policy point of view, the National land transfer system is being adjusted, the future of large areas of the phenomenon of streaming film is less likely.　　As far as the bank is concerned, CCB's Land reserve center loans are mainly concentrated in the central city, the balance is small, asset quality is guaranteed.　　It seems that all is well, but the former rating companies have been so worried: after the reform of the domestic banking industry has not experienced a complete economic cycle, can really as the respective expression of the ability to withstand the risk, still need time to test. According to the first financial journal