Big Data and cloud computing: blind belief and total veto

The World Cup four strong to decide the first two, Germany became the first team to qualify for the top four. It was a big event for the German people to celebrate, but Google seemed embarrassed. According to Google's cloud computing forecasts, Germany will lose to France, the four-strong.

Google's product marketing manager, Benjamin Bethosem, praised Google's cloud-computing capabilities in a Wednesday blog post, saying that Google's success in predicting the reliability of the cloud, and Google will continue to use the cloud function to predict the four-strong list. Unfortunately, Google's cloud computing does not seem to stand up to praise, the top four list is Germany, and according to Google's cloud computing results, France has a 69% chance of defeating Germany.

Google's cloud computing platform is said to have assessed the past seasons of every Professional football league in the world, based on optasports data, and analyzed the eight-strong list of World Cup players during the Brazilian World Cup team.

The system also uses the power ranking system developed by BigQuery (Google's big Data engine, which allows users to upload their oversized data and directly interactively analyze them without having to build their own data centers), while taking into account the degree of audience enthusiasm data to calculate the home side advantage.

Some people commented that Google is playing its own face, others say using cloud computing to predict the outcome of the World Cup is just a gimmick and joke of the tech giants. The implication is that cloud computing has no real effect on football predictions.

In fact, the comments are the voice of many people in China, including some cloud-related practitioners of cloud computing and large data deep misunderstanding, but also show whether domestic or foreign technology companies for cold data and technology overconfidence. First of all, from the German-French World Cup, the 69% win is only a show that France has a 70% chance of winning. Usually we use the term "ten to one" for more certainty, so the probability of seven is a clear indication of France's dominance, but it still cannot be said that France will win. For example: We have a cardboard box in front of us with 10 pieces of paper, 3 of which are German victories, others written in France. Does that mean that we can win the French victory? The people who laugh at Google, but also the big data as fortune-telling. The tech giants themselves, too, should re-examine their overconfidence in technology.

There are many unknowns in the future. It has been said that when technology develops to a certain degree, our computational and analytical capabilities reach a certain level, and we can even budget the future. I do not completely deny this view, but I cannot agree with it. In my personal opinion, when the level of technology developed to a certain stage, scientific calculation is likely to calculate the results of some things, such as: What the future city has the function of the next technological breakthrough will appear in what areas, the future of human physiology will be what kind of evolution and so on. However, this does not mean that calculations can work out everything. Calculations are based on data that has occurred in the past plus the correlation between analysis events, which ultimately results in the possible outcome of complex events. But it cannot predict the impact of various uncertainties on the outcome of the event. Large data and cloud computing, in the uncertain factors of the incident can almost be called "octopus Son", but in the uncertain factors of life, economy, culture and so on, there are still a lot of errors. The conclusion is: the less the uncertainty, the smaller the error, the more the uncertainty, the greater the error.

However, cloud computing and large data in any field, the trend and direction of the analysis is an excellent reference! Its vast database, rigorous computing, and standardized analysis are essential to guide each of our decisions.

Do not deny the role of cloud computing and large data in forecasting because the results do not match the actual results. Because it's just as stupid to blindly believe that big data and cloud computing can work out everything. In the big data age, people should slow down their frenetic pace and think calmly about the relationship between technology and us. We have to use technology, not by technology.