Business: Iron and steel May depressed bottom of the June the probability of bottoming

The May 31 Steel Index was 923 points, down 12.68% from the 1057 Point (2013-02-21) of the cycle, up 11.61% from the lowest point of September 09, 2012. (Note: Period of 2011-12-01 to 2013-05-31) according to the network Shing Business Bao's commodity data provider-business community (www.100ppi.com) Price monitoring, the May 2013 commodity prices in the price of steel plate in the chain rose 1 of commodities, the rise of the tungsten iron ( 1.74%). A total of 13 products fell on the chain, more than 5% of the total number of goods 7, accounted for the plate was monitored by 50% of the commodities, 3 of the products were iron ore (India) (11.7%), hot-rolled (-8.29%), stainless steel plate (-8.13%). May 2013 steel industry commodity prices were 5.07%. May 31, the Steel index was 923 points, down 6 points from May 30, compared to the peak period of 1057 points (2013-02-21) fell 12.68%, compared to September 09, 2012 827 points rose 11.61%. (Note: cycle refers to the 2011-12-01 to date) throughout the May steel industry, the upstream ore prices accelerated decline, coal prices stepped down, the middle reaches of high crude steel production, prices fell, the downstream demand is still tepid. Business Club Steel analyst Hehangsheng that steel market oversupply situation is not optimistic, the price under pressure downward, continue to dip mainly. In May 2013, the commodity data maker, the business community, issued a 0.34 per cent increase in China's commodity supply and Demand Index (BCI), which has risen to 1.49%, reflecting the continued contraction of the manufacturing economy in the month ahead of last month and the downside risks to the economy. From the upstream iron ore perspective. According to the business club price monitoring, as of May 31, 2013, 62% printing powder ore port average 815 yuan/ton, 62%PB powder ore 837.86 yuan/ton, 63.5% Brazilian coarse powder ore 884.38 yuan/ton, compared to the early month of the decline of 11.70%,12.46%,9%. The decline, which has increased markedly since April, has been marked by a slump, continuing the weak pattern of the previous March or April. May ore prices fell sharply, business, steel analyst Hehangsheng that with the miners only out of operation and steel mills on demand procurement initiatives, and even the market has appeared sand steel and other steel mills began to sell ore, reduce costs, accelerate the look at the empty ore afternoon. Of course, the decline of the Dow index of the ore vane 20多 points is also the main reason for the fall of domestic import ore. As of May 31, the country's 30 major ports inventory of 71.83 million tons, 1.28 million tons more than last week, the weekly growth of 1.8%, of which the mainstream resources of Australia's mineral powder than last week 480,000 tons, the week chain growth of 1.4%. Hehangsheng that iron ore inventory of the continuous increase of 6 weeks, so that the market price of ore supply has begun to take shape, futureThe continued dip in prices will continue throughout the June. From the steel market itself. The steel market declined rapidly in May compared with April. According to the business community price monitoring, the May 2013 commodity price rise and fall of the steel plate in the chain rose 1 of commodities, the rise of the tungsten iron (1.74%). A total of 13 products fell on the chain, more than 5% of the total number of goods 7, accounted for the plate was monitored by 50% of the commodities, 3 of the products were iron ore (India) (11.7%), hot-rolled (-8.31%), stainless steel plate (-8.13%). May, the price was 5.22%. According to the business community Inventory survey, as of May 31, 2013, the national major market of the five major steel varieties of social inventory of 18.1976 million tons, compared to the previous week to reduce 417,200 tons, the 11th consecutive week down, the decline of the first two weeks has been stable. And in mid-May, the domestic key large and medium-sized steel enterprises Inventory of steel stocks of 13.68 million tons, increased by 590,000 tons, compared to the end of March 14.83 million tons decreased slightly 7.8%. Hehangsheng that for steel mills, the decline is limited, and the current steel mills inventory is significantly higher than the same period of 2012 9.41 million tons, is still at a high level. From the inventory, although the steel consumption has not been further expanded, but the steady downward inventory, giving the market greater confidence. But the 3-month-high crude steel production, which has brought huge resistance to the price hike, should still be the main downside for June, though the decline may be reduced. According to the latest data of CISA, steel Association in May, the average daily output of 1.7405 million tons of crude iron, the chain fell 0.4%, estimated daily average output of 2.1854 million tons, the chain fell 0.3%. As can be seen from the above figures, the quarter-on-quarter decline of crude steel production in mid-May and its similarity in mid-April, but the main steel price decline is much larger than April, so Hehangsheng that the "gold three silver Four" market downturn is only a small fall in the peak season under the market, and its own peak season to the low season of the May but to the steel market downward frequency Tim "power ", on the one hand, the demand for ore and the price of both depressed, accelerated the steel market downward; On the other hand, the steel mills factory prices and high crude iron production, but also to prevent the upward market, coking steel industry chain overall in the downward phase, to the depressed steel market cage clouds. Therefore, Hehangsheng that steel prices want to rebound, steel market to warmer, the production of steel mills has been upgraded to the current steel industry's most important means of control. From a macro perspective. According to the China Logistics and Procurement Federation's Steel Logistics Committee 1st, the domestic steel industry PMI index was 46.8% in May, up 1.7% from April, the second consecutive month, but has been in a row for three consecutive months to maintain the following 50%. In May, the steel industry's New Order index rebounded 2% to 45.2% after a two-month decline. However, after entering the late May, demand has come down more clearly, showing the peak season demand or closed. TestTaking into account the June domestic will enter the hot Meiyu traditional consumption off-season, the expected recovery of terminal demand will be constrained. So the steel market demand is only slightly showing signs of improvement. So in the end, said Hehangsheng, a business-steel analyst, due to the upstream filter material prices down, the middle reaches of the steel mills not enough, society and steel Factory inventory is still high, if the current steel industry capacity and output are not effective control, then in a slightly improved demand is still not enough to steel market formation, and can not expand the advantages, It will not gradually boost steel prices. So June steel prices are still dominated by fluctuations, but some of the positive elements of steel market is also accumulating, so the June bottoming market or may appear.