Cass: House prices rise 15% next year or retaliate rebound

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the 2011 "Economic Blue Book" pointed out that----next year's real estate macro-control can not relax China online December 7, 2010, by the Social sciences Department of Economics, Cass, the Institute of Economic and Technical studies, social science literature Press jointly sponsored the "2011 Economic Blue Book released and China's economic situation analysis and prediction seminar, held in Beijing.　　The meeting analyzed and forecasted the trend and main problems of China's economic development in the 2010 and 2011, announced the main indicators of national economy in 2010-2011, and officially released the "2011 China Economic Situation Analysis and forecast" published by Social science Literature Publishing house. The Blue Book pointed out that 2010 is China's real estate regulation year, the central government to the real estate control effect is remarkable, the developer hoarding the land phenomenon obtains the preliminary containment, the utilization loan investment and the speculative dwelling demand also obtains the preliminary control.　　House prices have risen from around 25% in 2009 and are expected to fall to 15% in 2010, down 10% from the previous year. According to the Blue Book, from residential investment, sales area, sales and house price trends, 2010 1 ~ August, residential investment completed 1,987,618,000,000 yuan, sales of 52704.47 square meters, sales of 2,641,824,000,000 yuan, respectively, than the previous year, 33.9%, 6.7%, 12.6%.　　The average domestic commercial housing sales price of 5520 yuan/square meters, the same period of 4800 yuan a year ago, up 15% in the same period of 2010 years after 4 months of demand unchanged, the annual housing price is expected to increase by about 15%, the increase than 2009 down 10%. At the same time, the Blue Book also pointed out that in 2010, although the rate of house prices rose greatly slowed, but still higher than urban and rural income growth.　　Moreover, it is worth paying attention to, house price income is running higher than high, and slightly worse. 2010 Urban residents per capita disposable income, about 18900 yuan, the average annual wage of migrant workers is 19200 yuan. According to the urban residents of 30 square meters per person and migrant workers households per capita 20 square meters, as well as urban residents and migrant workers households have 3, 3.5 people respectively, their home price income ratio of 8.76, 10.06. Among them, urban residents ' housing income rose 0.46 from 2009 's 8.3.　　According to the affordability of house price income and the risk of family debt, house price income ratio is more suitable to keep in 3~6, and according to current income ratio level, the direct consequence is that 85% of the urban residents who need to buy new homes are unable to buy. In addition, the Blue Book also stressed that the real estate macro-control policy can not relax. Next year's real estate economy and housing prices, mainly depends on the government's determination to regulate house prices, the combination of policies and the strength of reform. One could be a vicious circle of falling prices and soaring inflation. If regulation relaxes, house prices will rebound and prices may rise 20%~25%。　　Another possibility is a slight drop in house prices or a modest rise. Finally, the blue Book points out that in order to solve China's housing problem, we need to supply land in full according to the living demand of population urbanization, and to control the price level scientifically, starting with the relationship between house price income ratio and rising rate of house price and the growth rate of residents ' income , the need for a thorough reform of land and housing and its income system, so that local governments can have a stable and reasonable prices do not push up the real estate revenue channels; farmers ' assets in rural areas need to be made available to enhance their ability to buy homes in cities and towns. Only in this way can we fundamentally solve the problem of hundreds of millions of people living in China.